A Scalable MCEM Estimator for Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Models

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are often (i) not scalable, (ii) designed for conditionally Gaussian outcome data, or (iii) are limited to cross-sectional and univariate outcomes. This paper proposes an MCEM estimation strategy for a family of latent-Gaussian multivariate spatio-temporal models that addresses these issues. The proposed estimator is applicable to a wide range of non-Gaussian outcomes, and implementations for binary and count outcomes are discussed explicitly. The methodology is illustrated on simulated data, as well as on weekly data of IS-related events in Syrian districts.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure

STUDENTS WITH LEARNING DISABILITIES AND THEIR LIVED EXPERIENCES TRANSITIONING FROM HIGH SCHOOL TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION

This qualitative study explores the transition of students with learning disabilities (LDs) from high school to junior college, focusing on self-advocacy, self-determination, and the impact of transition services. Conducted with students aged 18 to 23 in Riverside, California, through semi-structured interviews, it employs hermeneutic interpretative phenomenological analysis to merge participants\u27 experiences with social justice theories. The research underscores the need for educational strategies that are inclusive and adaptive, catering to the unique challenges of students with LDs. Key themes found are Awareness and Application of Self-Advocacy and Self-Determination, the Role of High School Transition Services in College Preparedness, Guidance and Skill Development, Managing College Life, and Advice for Teachers and Students. These themes emphasize the critical role of transition programs and personalized guidance in fostering essential skills among students. The findings call for systemic reforms in education to ensure equitable support and opportunities for students with LDs, highlighting the importance of ongoing research and development in special education

Feministische Geographien und geographische Geschlechterforschung im deutschsprachigen Raum

Feministische Geographien und geographische Geschlechterforschung umfassen eine Vielzahl an Themenfeldern und Fragestellungen zum Zusammenhang von Raum und Geschlecht(lichkeit), die aus unterschiedlichen theoretischen Perspektiven in allen geographischen Bereichen behandelt werden können. In unserem Beitrag liefern wir einen Überblick über Inhalte, Ziele und Entwicklungspfade von Geschlechter- und feministischer Forschung in der deutschsprachigen Geographie. Dieser Überblick ist in allgemeine Überlegungen zu Geschlechterforschung in den Sozialwissenschaften eingebettet und an verschiedenen geschlechtertheoretischen Perspektiven – Frauen-, Geschlechterverhältnis-, Männer-/Männlichkeits- und Geschlechtsforschung – orientiert. Entlang der Frage "Wie weiblich ist die Nacht?" werden die Ausführungen zu den Fragestellungen, Blickachsen und Arbeitsweisen feministischer Geographien an zwei Beispielen konkretisiert und vertieft

Discovering cancer immunotherapy targets in vivo

A key challenge facing the cancer immunology field is the discovery of the most suitable targets for therapeutic intervention. We recently reported a novel RNA-interference (RNAi)-based approach for systematic discovery of such targets in the tumor microenvironment in vivo utilizing pooled shRNA libraries as a screening tool. Here, we discuss applying this unbiased method to develop innovative cancer therapeutics

Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war: Was gurr right and for the right reasons?

© The Author(s) 2017. Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on ‘the waning of ethnic war’. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments’ accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping

Morphology engineering - Osmolality and its effect on Aspergillus niger morphology and productivity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The filamentous fungus <it>Aspergillus niger </it>is a widely used strain in a broad range of industrial processes from food to pharmaceutical industry. One of the most intriguing and often uncontrollable characteristics of this filamentous organism is its complex morphology, ranging from dense spherical pellets to viscous mycelia depending on culture conditions. Optimal productivity correlates strongly with a specific morphological form, thus making high demands on process control.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In about 50 2L stirred tank cultivations the influence of osmolality on <it>A</it>. <it>niger </it>morphology and productivity was investigated. The specific productivity of fructofuranosidase producing strain <it>A. niger </it>SKAn 1015 could be increased notably from 0.5 to 9 U mg^-1h^-1around eighteen fold, by increasing the culture broth osmolality by addition of sodium chloride. The specific productivity of glucoamylase producing strain <it>A. niger </it>AB1.13, could be elevated using the same procedure. An optimal producing osmolality was shown to exist well over the standard osmolality at about 3.2 osmol kg^-1depending on the strain. Fungal morphology of all cultivations was examined by microscope and characterized by digital image analysis. Particle shape parameters were combined to a dimensionless Morphology number, which enabled a comprehensive characterization of fungal morphology correlating closely with productivity. A novel method for determination of germination time in submerged cultivations by laser diffraction, introduced in this study, revealed a decelerated germination process with increasing osmolality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Through the introduction of the versatile Morphology number, this study provides the means for a desirable characterization of fungal morphology and demonstrates its relation to productivity. Furthermore, osmolality as a fairly new parameter in process engineering is introduced and found to affect fungal morphology and productivity. Osmolality might provide an auspicious and reliable approach to increase the productivity in industrial processes. Because of the predictable behavior fungal morphology showed in dependence of osmolality, a customization of morphology for process needs seems feasible.</p

Zerebraler Krampfanfall und Lungenrundherd unter Immunsuppression

Zusammenfassung: Die Zahl der Patienten, die eine immunsuppressive Therapie erhalten, ist steigend. Demzufolge sollte bei unklaren pulmonalen Prozessen mit oder ohne zerebrale Beteiligung neben einem Bronchialkarzinom immer auch an eine opportunistische systemische Infektion gedacht werden. Als ein Beispiel dafür wird hier über eine systemische Nokardiose berichtet. Da die klinische Symptomatik der Nokardiose völlig unspezifisch ist, wird sie oft nicht oder zu spät differenzialdiagnostisch in Erwägung gezogen. Nokardien kommen ubiquitär vor. Sie gelangen v.a. via Inhalation in den menschlichen Körper. Unterschieden wird die lokalisierte von der systemischen (disseminierten) Infektion, die mit einer hohen Mortalität, insbesondere bei immunsupprimierten Patienten, verbunden ist. In der Regel besteht die Therapie der Nokardiose in einer Langzeitantibiotikagab

Introduction: Forecasting in peace research

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection