Uncertainty analysis of a model of wind-blown volcanic plumes

Mathematical models of natural processes can be used as inversion tools to predict unobserved properties from measured quantities. Uncertainty in observations and model formulation impact on the efficacy of inverse modelling. We present a general methodology, history matching, that can be used to investigate the effect of observational and model uncertainty on inverse modelling studies. We demonstrate history matching on an integral model of volcanic plumes that is used to estimate source conditions from observations of the rise height of plumes during the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, in 2010 and Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 2011. Sources of uncertainty are identified and quantified, and propagated through the integral plume model. A preliminary sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the uncertain model parameters that strongly influence model predictions. Model predictions are assessed against observations through an implausibility measure that rules out model inputs that are considered implausible given the quantified uncertainty. We demonstrate that the source mass flux at the volcano can be estimated from plume height observations, but the magmatic temperature, exit velocity and exsolved gas mass fraction cannot be accurately determined. Uncertainty in plume height observations and entrainment coefficients results in a large range of plausible values of the source mass flux. Our analysis shows that better constraints on entrainment coefficients for volcanic plumes and more precise observations of plume height are required to obtain tightly constrained estimates of the source mass flux

Quantitative characterization of smooth pursuit eye movements in school-age children using a child-friendly setup

Purpose: It could be argued that current studies investigating smooth pursuit development in children do not provide an optimal measure of smooth pursuit characteristics, given that a significant number have failed to adjust their setup and procedures to the child population. This study aimed to characterize smooth pursuit in children using child-friendly stimuli and procedures. Methods: Eye movements were recorded in 169 children (4–11 years) and 10 adults, while a customized, animated stimulus was presented moving horizontally and vertically at 68/s and 128/s. Eye movement recordings from 43 children with delayed reading, two with nystagmus, two with strabismus, and two with unsuccessful calibration were excluded from the analysis. Velocity gain, proportion of smooth pursuit, and the number and amplitude of saccades during smooth pursuit were calculated for the remaining participants. Median and quartiles were calculated for each age group and pursuit condition. ANOVA was used to investigate the effect of age on smooth pursuit parameters. Results: Differences across ages were found in velocity gain (68/s P , 0.01; 128/s P , 0.05), as well as the number (128/s P , 0.05) and amplitude of saccades (128/s P , 0.05), for horizontal smooth pursuit. Post hoc tests showed that these parameters were different between children aged 7 or younger and adults. No significant differences were found across ages in any smooth pursuit parameter for the vertical direction (P . 0.05). Conclusions: Using child-friendly methods, children over the age of 7 to 8 years demonstrated adultlike smooth pursuit. Translational Relevance: Child-friendly procedures are critical for appropriately characterizing smooth pursuit eye movements in children.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The Efficacy of a Brief Behavioral Health Intervention for Managing High Utilization of ED Services by Chronic Pain Patients

Patients with chronic pain continue to seek medical care from emergency departments nationwide despite the fact that an emergency department is a less-than-optimal environment for meeting their specific and specialized needs. As the scientific community has gained a more sophisticated understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to the development and maintenance of chronic pain, the central role of psychological factors have emerged. Therefore, an ED-based, behavioral health intervention for chronic pain patients is needed to better serve this population and to help hospitals provide cost effective treatment at the appropriate level of care

Infantile nystagmus: an optometrist's perspective

Infantile nystagmus (IN), previously known as congenital nystagmus, is an involuntary to-and-fro movement of the eyes that persists throughout life. IN is one of three types of early-onset nystagmus that begin in infancy, alongside fusion maldevelopment nystagmus syndrome and spasmus nutans syndrome. Optometrists may also encounter patients with acquired nystagmus. The features of IN overlap largely with those of fusion maldevelopment nystagmus syndrome, spasmus nutans syndrome, and acquired nystagmus, yet the management for each subtype is different. Therefore, the optometrist’s role is to accurately discern IN from other forms of nystagmus and to manage accordingly. As IN is a lifelong condition, its presence not only affects the visual function of the individual but also their quality of life, both socially and psychologically. In this report, we focus on the approaches that involve optometrists in the investigation and management of patients with IN. Management includes the prescription of optical treatments, low-vision rehabilitation, and other interventions such as encouraging the use of the null zone and referral to support groups. Other treatments available via ophthalmologists are also briefly discussed in the article

Quantitative Characterization of Smooth Pursuit Eye Movements in School-Age Children Using a Child-Friendly Setup

Purpose: It could be argued that current studies investigating smooth pursuit development in children do not provide an optimal measure of smooth pursuit characteristics, given that a significant number have failed to adjust their setup and procedures to the child population. This study aimed to characterize smooth pursuit in children using child-friendly stimuli and procedures. Methods: Eye movements were recorded in 169 children (4–11 years) and 10 adults, while a customized, animated stimulus was presented moving horizontally and vertically at 6°/s and 12°/s. Eye movement recordings from 43 children with delayed reading, two with nystagmus, two with strabismus, and two with unsuccessful calibration were excluded from the analysis. Velocity gain, proportion of smooth pursuit, and the number and amplitude of saccades during smooth pursuit were calculated for the remaining participants. Median and quartiles were calculated for each age group and pursuit condition. ANOVA was used to investigate the effect of age on smooth pursuit parameters. Results: Differences across ages were found in velocity gain (6°/s P 0.05). Conclusions: Using child-friendly methods, children over the age of 7 to 8 years demonstrated adultlike smooth pursuit. Translational Relevance: Child-friendly procedures are critical for appropriately characterizing smooth pursuit eye movements in children

Effect of Stimulus Type and Motion on Smooth Pursuit in Adults and Children

PURPOSE: This study presents a two-degree customized animated stimulus developed to evaluate smooth pursuit in children and investigates the effect of its predetermined characteristics (stimulus type and size) in an adult population. Then, the animated stimulus is used to evaluate the impact of different pursuit motion paradigms in children. METHODS: To study the effect of animating a stimulus, eye movement recordings were obtained from 20 young adults while the customized animated stimulus and a standard dot stimulus were presented moving horizontally at a constant velocity. To study the effect of using a larger stimulus size, eye movement recordings were obtained from 10 young adults while presenting a standard dot stimulus of different size (1° and 2°) moving horizontally at a constant velocity. Finally, eye movement recordings were obtained from 12 children while the 2° customized animated stimulus was presented after three different smooth pursuit motion paradigms. Performance parameters, including gains and number of saccades, were calculated for each stimulus condition. RESULTS: The animated stimulus produced in young adults significantly higher velocity gain (mean: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.90-0.96; P = .014), position gain (0.93; 0.85-1; P = .025), proportion of smooth pursuit (0.94; 0.91-0.96, P = .002), and fewer saccades (5.30; 3.64-6.96, P = .008) than a standard dot (velocity gain: 0.87; 0.82-0.92; position gain: 0.82; 0.72-0.92; proportion smooth pursuit: 0.87; 0.83-0.90; number of saccades: 7.75; 5.30-10.46). In contrast, changing the size of a standard dot stimulus from 1° to 2° did not have an effect on smooth pursuit in young adults (P > .05). Finally, smooth pursuit performance did not significantly differ in children for the different motion paradigms when using the animated stimulus (P > .05). CONCLUSIONS: Attention-grabbing and more dynamic stimuli, such as the developed animated stimulus, might potentially be useful for eye movement research. Finally, with such stimuli, children perform equally well irrespective of the motion paradigm used

The effect of gaze angle on visual acuity in infantile nystagmus

Purpose: Most individuals with infantile nystagmus (IN) have an idiosyncratic gaze angle at which their nystagmus intensity is minimized. Some adopt an abnormal head posture to use this “null zone,” and it has therefore long been assumed that this provides people with nystagmus with improved visual acuity (VA). However, recent studies suggest that improving the nystagmus waveform could have little, if any, influence on VA; that is, VA is fundamentally limited in IN. Here, we examined the impact of the null zone on VA. Methods: Visual acuity was measured in eight adults with IN using a psychophysical staircase procedure with reversals at three horizontal gaze angles, including the null zone. Results: As expected, changes in gaze angle affected nystagmus amplitude, frequency, foveation duration, and variability of intercycle foveation position. Across participants, each parameter (except frequency) was significantly correlated with VA. Within any given individual, there was a small but significant improvement in VA (0.08 logMAR) at the null zone as compared with the other gaze angles tested. Despite this, no change in any of the nystagmus waveform parameters was significantly associated with changes in VA within individuals. Conclusions: A strong relationship between VA and nystagmus characteristics exists between individuals with IN. Although significant, the improvement in VA observed within individuals at the null zone is much smaller than might be expected from the occasionally large variations in intensity and foveation dynamics (and anecdotal patient reports of improved vision), suggesting that improvement of other aspects of visual performance may also encourage use of the null zone

Five centuries of Upper Indus River flow from tree rings

Water wars are a prospect in coming years as nations struggle with the effects of climate change, growing water demand, and declining resources. The Indus River supplies water to the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system generating 90% of the food production in Pakistan as well as 13 gigawatts of hydroelectricity. Because any gap between water supply and demand has major and far-reaching ramifications, an understanding of natural flow variability is vital – especially when only 47 years of instrumental record is available. A network of tree-ring sites from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) was used to reconstruct river discharge levels covering the period AD 1452–2008. Novel methods tree-ring detrending based on the ‘signal free’ method and estimation of reconstruction uncertainty based on the ‘maximum entropy bootstrap’ are used. This 557-year record displays strong inter-decadal fluctuations that could not have been deduced from the short gauged record. Recent discharge levels are high but not statistically unprecedented and are likely to be associated with increased meltwater from unusually heavy prior winter snowfall. A period of prolonged below-average discharge is indicated during AD 1572–1683. This unprecedented low-flow period may have been a time of persistently below-average winter snowfall and provides a warning for future water resource planning. Our reconstruction thus helps fill the hydrological information vacuum for modeling the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan region and is useful for planning future development of UIB water resources in an effort to close Pakistan’s “water gap”. Finally, the river discharge reconstruction provides the basis for comparing past, present, and future hydrologic changes, which will be crucial for detection and attribution of hydroclimate change in the Upper Indus Basin

Visual processing in infantile nystagmus is not slow

Purpose: Treatments for infantile nystagmus (IN) sometimes elicit subjective reports of improved visual function, yet quantifiable improvements in visual acuity, if any, are often negligible. One possibility is that these subjective “improvements” may relate to temporal, rather than spatial, visual function. This study aimed to ascertain the extent to which “time to see” might be increased in nystagmats, as compared to normally sighted controls. By assessing both eye movement and response time data, it was possible to determine whether delays in “time to see” were due solely to the eye movements, or to an underlying deficit in visual processing. Methods: The time taken to respond to the orientation of centrally and peripherally presented gratings was measured in subjects with IN and normally sighted controls (both groups: n = 11). For each vertically displaced grating, the time until the target-acquiring saccade was determined, as was the time from the saccade until the subject's response. Results: Nystagmats took approximately 60 ms longer than controls to execute target-acquiring saccades to vertically displaced targets (P = 0.010). However, the time from the end of the saccade until subjects responded was not significantly different between groups (P = 0.37). Despite this, nystagmats took longer to respond to gratings presented at fixation. Conclusions: Individuals with IN took longer to direct their gaze toward objects of interest. However, once a target was foveated, the time taken to process visual information and respond did not appear to differ from that of control subjects. Therefore, conscious visual processing in IN is not slow

Visual and refractive status of children with Down's syndrome and nystagmus

Background/Aims Children with Down’s syndrome (DS) are known to have poorer visual acuity that neurotypical children. One report has shown that children with DS and nystagmus also have poor acuity when compared to typical children with nystagmus. What has not been established, is the extent of any acuity deficit due to nystagmus and whether nystagmus impacts on refractive error is within a population with DS. Methods Clinical records from The Cardiff University Down’s Syndrome Vision Research Unit were examined retrospectively. Binocular visual acuity and refraction data were available for 50 children who had DS and nystagmus (DSN) and 176 children who had DS but no nystagmus. Data were compared between the two groups, and with published data for neurotypical children with nystagmus. Results The study confirms the deficit in acuity in DS, compared to neurotypical children, of approximately 0.2 LogMAR and shows a further deficit attributable to nystagmus of a further 0.2 logMAR beyond the first year of life. Children with DS and no nystagmus appear to have acuity that mirrors that of typical children with nystagmus, while children with both DS and nystagmus have a significant additional impairment. Children with DS have a wide range of refractive errors, but nystagmus increases the likelihood of myopia. Prevalence and axis direction of astigmatism, on the other hand appears unaffected by nystagmus. Conclusion Nystagmus confers an additional visual impairment on children with Down’s syndrome and must be recognised as such by families and educators. Children with both DS and nystagmus clearly need targeted support