Comparing Probabilistic Models for Melodic Sequences

Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (TC-RBM). We show that the TC-RBM learns descriptive music features, such as underlying chords and typical melody transitions and dynamics. We assess the models for future prediction and compare their performance to a VMM, which is the current state of the art in melody generation. We show that both models perform significantly better than the VMM, with the Dirichlet-VMM marginally outperforming the TC-RBM. Finally, we evaluate the short order statistics of the models, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence between test sequences and model samples, and show that our proposed methods match the statistics of the music genre significantly better than the VMM.Comment: in Proceedings of the ECML-PKDD 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 6913, pp. 289-304. Springer (2011

Temporal Precedence Checking for Switched Models and its Application to a Parallel Landing Protocol

This paper presents an algorithm for checking temporal precedence properties of nonlinear switched systems. This class of properties subsume bounded safety and capture requirements about visiting a sequence of predicates within given time intervals. The algorithm handles nonlinear predicates that arise from dynamics-based predictions used in alerting protocols for state-of-the-art transportation systems. It is sound and complete for nonlinear switch systems that robustly satisfy the given property. The algorithm is implemented in the Compare Execute Check Engine (C2E2) using validated simulations. As a case study, a simplified model of an alerting system for closely spaced parallel runways is considered. The proposed approach is applied to this model to check safety properties of the alerting logic for different operating conditions such as initial velocities, bank angles, aircraft longitudinal separation, and runway separation

Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions, including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs, we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied, the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average accuracy of 2.9 hours.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

Birefringence of interferential mirrors at normal incidence Experimental and computational study

In this paper we present a review of the existing data on interferential mirror birefringence. We also report new measurements of two sets of mirrors that confirm that mirror phase retardation per reflection decreases when mirror reflectivity increases. We finally developed a computational code to calculate the expected phase retardation per reflection as a function of the total number of layers constituting the mirror. Different cases have been studied and we have compared computational results with the trend of the experimental data. Our study indicates that the origin of the mirror intrinsic birefringence can be ascribed to the reflecting layers close to the substrate.Comment: To be published in Applied Physics

Diffusion tensor imaging parameters in mild traumatic brain injury and its correlation with early neuropsychological impairment: a longitudinal study

We explored the prognostic value of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) parameters of selected white matter (WM) tracts in predicting neuropsychological outcome, both at baseline and 6 months later, among well-characterized patients diagnosed with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Sixty-one patients with mTBI (mean age=27.08; standard deviation [SD], 8.55) underwent scanning at an average of 10 h (SD, 4.26) post-trauma along with assessment of their neuropsychological performance at an average of 4.35 h (SD, 7.08) upon full Glasgow Coma Scale recovery. Results were then compared to 19 healthy control participants (mean age=29.05; SD, 5.84), both in the acute stage and 6 months post-trauma. DTI and neuropsychological measures between acute and chronic phases were compared, and significant differences emerged. Specifically, chronic-phase fractional anisotropy and radial diffusivity values showed significant group differences in the corona radiata, anterior limb of internal capsule, cingulum, superior longitudinal fasciculus, optic radiation, and genu of corpus callosum. Findings also demonstrated associations between DTI indices and neuropsychological outcome across two time points. Our results provide new evidence for the use of DTI as an imaging biomarker and indicator of WM damage occurring in the context of mTBI, and they underscore the dynamic nature of brain injury and possible biological basis of chronic neurocognitive alterations

A Statistical Study on the Morphology of Rays and Dynamics of Blobs in the Wake of Coronal Mass Ejections

In this paper, with a survey through the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) data from 1996 to 2009, we present 11 events with plasma blobs flowing outwards sequentially along a bright coronal ray in the wake of a coronal mass ejection. The ray is believed to be associated with the current sheet structure that formed as a result of solar eruption, and the blobs are products of magnetic reconnection occurring along the current sheet. The ray morphology and blob dynamics are investigated statistically. It is found that the apparent angular widths of the rays at a fixed time vary in a range of 2.1-6.6 (2.0-4.4) degrees with an average of 3.5 (2.9) degrees at 3 (4) Rs, respectively, and the observed durations of the events vary from 12 h to a few days with an average of 27 h. It is also found, based on the analysis of blob motions, that 58% (26) of the blobs were accelerated, 20% (9) were decelerated, and 22% (10) moved with a nearly-constant speed. Comparing the dynamics of our blobs and those that are observed above the tip of a helmet streamer, we find that the speeds and accelerations of the blobs in these two cases differ significantly. It is suggested that these differences of the blob dynamics stem from the associated magnetic reconnection involving different magnetic field configurations and triggering processes.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, accepted by Solar Physic

Particle interactions with single or multiple 3D solar reconnecting current sheets

The acceleration of charged particles (electrons and protons) in flaring solar active regions is analyzed by numerical experiments. The acceleration is modelled as a stochastic process taking place by the interaction of the particles with local magnetic reconnection sites via multiple steps. Two types of local reconnecting topologies are studied: the Harris-type and the X-point. A formula for the maximum kinetic energy gain in a Harris-type current sheet, found in a previous work of ours, fits well the numerical data for a single step of the process. A generalization is then given approximating the kinetic energy gain through an X-point. In the case of the multiple step process, in both topologies the particles' kinetic energy distribution is found to acquire a practically invariant form after a small number of steps. This tendency is interpreted theoretically. Other characteristics of the acceleration process are given, such as the mean acceleration time and the pitch angle distributions of the particles.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, Solar Physics, in pres

How Many CMEs Have Flux Ropes? Deciphering the Signatures of Shocks, Flux Ropes, and Prominences in Coronagraph Observations of CMEs

We intend to provide a comprehensive answer to the question on whether all Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have flux rope structure. To achieve this, we present a synthesis of the LASCO CME observations over the last sixteen years, assisted by 3D MHD simulations of the breakout model, EUV and coronagraphic observations from STEREO and SDO, and statistics from a revised LASCO CME database. We argue that the bright loop often seen as the CME leading edge is the result of pileup at the boundary of the erupting flux rope irrespective of whether a cavity or, more generally, a 3-part CME can be identified. Based on our previous work on white light shock detection and supported by the MHD simulations, we identify a new type of morphology, the `two-front' morphology. It consists of a faint front followed by diffuse emission and the bright loop-like CME leading edge. We show that the faint front is caused by density compression at a wave (or possibly shock) front driven by the CME. We also present high-detailed multi-wavelength EUV observations that clarify the relative positioning of the prominence at the bottom of a coronal cavity with clear flux rope structure. Finally, we visually check the full LASCO CME database for flux rope structures. In the process, we classify the events into two clear flux rope classes (`3-part', `Loop'), jets and outflows (no clear structure). We find that at least 40% of the observed CMEs have clear flux rope structures. We propose a new definition for flux rope CMEs (FR-CMEs) as a coherent magnetic, twist-carrying coronal structure with angular width of at least 40 deg and able to reach beyond 10 Rsun which erupts on a time scale of a few minutes to several hours. We conclude that flux ropes are a common occurrence in CMEs and pose a challenge for future studies to identify CMEs that are clearly not FR-CMEs.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figs, to be published in Solar Physics Topical Issue "Flux Rope Structure of CMEs

Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic