Some Issues Affecting Optimization Models in Water Resource Planning

This paper draws heavily upon my experiences with the MIT-Argentina Study. The purpose of the paper is to bring forth some of the issues that affect the role of optimization models within a water resource planning methodology. Reasonable analysis goes from a problem -- a region or part of a river with certain characteristics -- to model formulation. It is the problem that puts requirements upon the model and in water resources the stochasticity of the real system has caused difficulties in the modeling step. Since optimization plays such an important role in the planning methodology, this paper considers current approaches to handling stochastic elements within optimization. The applicability to a real system like the Tisza is discussed and a new alternative approach is offered

A Revisit to the Prototype Water System

In M. Fiering's paper, "Mathematical Model of a Prototype Water System," he describes a system which has the following properties: (1) Upstream Reservoir with associated benefits (e.g. power). (2) Downstream Levees with benefits from flood damage reductions. (3) Independent inflows known on the first day of the season. (4) One-season model, i.e. yearly. (5) Technical functions between yearly inflow volume and the instantaneous flood peak downstream. Fiering was aware that many of the assumptions do not hold in real cases. Furthermore, there are other extensions of the described prototype water system that would be useful to explore -- for example, downstream supply by either the upstream reservoir or by an alternate ground water source. Another set of questions is centered around the upstream/downstream division of costs and benefits. The area of the division of costs and benefits falls under such headings as "game-theory", "conflict resolution", "bargaining", etc. and involves often side-payments from one user to another. In many cases, the role of the analyst is not to find an optimal solution to the bargaining procedure but to display various outcome sets to alternative actions. In a framework similar to that used by Fiering, this working paper investigates the outcome sets (upstream and downstream benefit positions) in the following cases: (1) A one-season model for upstream water-supply and downstream supply, where the targets may be different; (2) A two-season model for upstream water supply and downstream supply, where the targets may be different; and (3) A two-season extension of upstream supply and flood control downstream. From these results, further extensions to a real situation, like the Tisza, will be discussed in detail and will include a "where-do-we-go-with-this" section

Dynamics of Reservoir Operation Under Power Production

This small paper looks at some of the dynamics of reservoir operation and suggests some areas of continued work. Furthermore, new operating rules could be formulated that would consider the expected value of future power

Bayesian Analysis of the Ricker Stock-Recruitment Model

Bayesian statistics were applied to analyze the Ricker stock-recruitment model. This model is used for salmon fishery management and predicts the resulting recruits for a specified level of spawners. The Ricker model is transformed into a linear regression form, and the uncertainty in the model parameters and the "noise" of the model are calculated using Bayesian regression analysis. Application to the Skeena River Sockeye fishing with 67 years of data showed that parameter uncertainty was much less than model noise, thus putting in question the applicability of the Ricker model for management decisions. The analysis is extended to experimentation on the "optimal" spawning level, non-stationarity of the fishery, and model uncertainty

A Bayesian Approach to Analyzing Uncertainty Among Stochastic Models

The statistical uncertainty, resulting from the lack of knowledge of which modeling represents a given stochastic process, is analyzed. This analysis of model uncertainty leads to a composite Bayesian distribution. The composite Bayesian distribution is a linear model of the individual Bayesian probability distributions of the individual models, weighted by the posterior probability that a particular model is the true model. The composite Bayesian probability model accounts for all sources of statistical uncertainty -- both parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. This model is the one that should be used in applied problems of decision analysis, for it best represents the knowledge -- or lack of it -- to the decision maker about future events of the process

Application of Conflict Resolution Techniques to the Problem of International River Basin Management

The objective of the proposed research is to bring recent, advanced techniques of hydrologic modeling, optimization and conflict resolution, within a decision-theoretic framework to bear upon problems of international water resource management. The proposed research contains two parts: a theoretical development of analytical tools of conflict resolution and decision analysis as they apply to water resource problems, and a case study of their application to a large scale international water resource system with existing development conflicts. The need for cooperation in the development and management of international river basins has long been recognized. The international basin forms an indispensable hydrologic unit when water resource developments are undertaken. It is of extreme importance to the parties involved that the consequences of such actions within the basin be fully analyzed. The difficulties in specifying the hydrologic consequences of various development plans, quantifying economic and social benefits to each country, and the criteria upon which various competing development plans would be evaluated will be investigated fully during the proposed research. The research is establishing tradeoffs between riparian countries which can then be used in resolving resource conflicts and establishing efficient joint development plans. Our motivation arises from the knowledge that continued research will reduce the above problems, and that the proposed research will add significantly to concepts of basin wide planning on international rivers, with application in regions where the sharing of water resources occurs. Furthermore, techniques developed under this research should apply, in general, to other problems of international resource conflicts. Examples such as high seas fisheries (salmon and whale), seabed mineral resources and Antarctic land use are three areas outside of water resources which, at the moment, are the subject of negotiation and conflict among nations. The proposed research will emphasize techniques that can be effectively applied. For this reason, the case study problem is of great importance to the success of the research effort. One proposed case study for the demonstration of these techniques is an area of the Tisza River, whose basin is shared by five riparian countries. Developments are occurring within these countries (such as the construction of flood levees) which have severe and unconsidered effects upon adjoining countries. Joint development within the Tisza Basin may be possible which would result in greater aggregate benefits within the basin as a whole than individual developments provide. Further, individual planning may and does lead to conflict regarding artificial changes in the quantity and temporal distribution of the water resources. The Tisza basin presents an excellent vehicle to demonstrate that basin wide planning techniques and resource sharing could reduce such conflicts and result in greater benefits for the river basin as a whole. It is not the purpose of the case study to formulate actual planning policies, rather the case study will be of a descriptive nature for the demonstration of basin wide planning techniques as they could apply to any river basin

An Approach to the Tisza Basin Study

This paper outlines a possible approach that the water project may take to the Tisza study. Presented is the framework of the problem and a proposed approach to its analysis

Analysis of Uncertainty in Deterministic Rainfall Runoff Models

The uncertainty in the output of a deterministic model, due to the uncertainty in the parameters of the model, is analyzed and compared to current procedures of using average values for the uncertain parameters. The present analysis considers an analytical rainfall-runoff flood frequency model where the infiltration parameter is considered as a stochastic variable. The same conceptual procedure can be used to analyze fixed but uncertain (unknown) parameters

Service user views of spiritual and pastoral care (chaplaincy) in NHS mental health services: A co-produced constructivist grounded theory investigation

Background: Within the UK National Health Service (NHS), Spiritual and Pastoral Care (SPC) Services (chaplaincies) have not traditionally embraced research due to the intangible nature of their work. However, small teams like SPC can lead the way towards services across the NHS becoming patient- centred and patient-led. Using co-production principles within research can ensure it, and the resulting services, are truly patient-led. Methods: A series of interviews were conducted with service users across directorates of a large NHS mental health Trust. Their views on the quality of SPC services and desired changes were elicited. Grounded theory was used with a constant comparative approach to the interviews and analysis. Results: Initial analysis explored views on spirituality and religion in health. Participants’ concerns included what chaplains should do, who they should see, and how soon after admission. Theoretical analysis suggested incorporating an overarching spiritual element into the bio-psycho-social model of mental healthcare. Conclusions: Service users’ spirituality should not be sidelined. To service users with strong spiritual beliefs, supporting their spiritual resilience is central to their care and well-being. Failure will lead to non-holistic care unlikely to engage or motivate

What are the barriers and facilitators to implementing Collaborative Care for depression? A systematic review.

Background: Collaborative Care is an evidence-based approach to the management of depression within primary care services recommended within NICE Guidance. However, uptake within the UK has been limited. This review aims to investigate the barriers and facilitators to implementing Collaborative Care. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to uncover what barriers and facilitators have been reported by previous research into Collaborative Care for depression in primary care. Results: The review identified barriers and facilitators to successful implementation of Collaborative Care for depression in 18 studies across a range of settings. A framework analysis was applied using the Collaborative Care definition. The most commonly reported barriers related to the multi-professional approach, such as staff and organisational attitudes to integration, and poor inter-professional communication. Facilitators to successful implementation particularly focussed on improving inter-professional communication through standardised care pathways and case managers with clear role boundaries and key underpinning personal qualities. Limitations: Not all papers were independent title and abstract screened by multiple reviewers thus limiting the reliability of the selected studies. There are many different frameworks for assessing the quality of qualitative research and little consensus as to which is most appropriate in what circumstances. The use of a quality threshold led to the exclusion of six papers that could have included further information on barriers and facilitators. 3 Conclusions: Although the evidence base for Collaborative Care is strong, and the population within primary care with depression is large, the preferred way to implement the approach has not been identified