Demonstrating the utility of a drought termination framework: prospects for groundwater level recovery in England and Wales in 2018 or beyond

During prolonged droughts, information is needed about when and how the extreme event is likely to terminate. A drought termination framework based on historical data comprising current rate and historical ensemble approaches is presented here for assessing the prospects of groundwater level recovery. The current rate approach is evaluated across all initialisation months in the historical record and provides reasonable estimates for the duration of recovery from relatively severe groundwater level deficiencies in some slowly responding boreholes. The utility of the framework is demonstrated through a near-real-time application to 30 groundwater boreholes in England and Wales from October 2017 onwards. Recovery during winter 2017/18 was considered unlikely, as some aquifers required increases in groundwater levels that have occurred seldom, if ever before, in long historical records. Data to February 2018 confirmed the success of these pre-winter outlooks. Recovery by mid- to late-2018 or beyond was more likely; slow rates of recovery by October 2017 and increasing return periods of effective rainfall required for recovery over timeframes in the summer half-year underlined the importance of winter rainfall and suggested that the historical ensemble may underestimate the duration of recovery. There was moderate confidence for a delay in recovery beyond the end of 2018 in some slowly responding Chalk boreholes in south-central and eastern England. There is considerable potential for the transferability of the drought termination framework beyond the UK wherever there are sufficient historical data. The two approaches provide limited information in distinctly different circumstances and their relevance and value may differ in space and time, suggesting their complimentary use as the most robust way to incorporate information on the prospects for groundwater level recovery into existing seasonal forecasting services, supporting decision-making by water managers during prolonged droughts

A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom

Drought termination can be associated with dramatic transitions from drought to flooding. Greater attention may be given to these newsworthy and memorable events, but drought terminations that proceed gradually also pose challenges for water resource managers. This paper defines drought termination as a distinctive phase of the event. Using observed river flow records for 52 UK catchments, a more systematic and objective approach for detecting drought terminations is demonstrated. The parameters of the approach are informed by a sensitivity analysis that ensures a focus on terminations of multi-season to multi-year droughts. The resulting inventory of 467 drought terminations provides an unprecedented historical perspective on this phenomenon in the UK. Nationally and regionally coherent drought termination events are identifiable, although their characteristics vary both between and within major episodes. Contrasting drought termination events in 1995–1998 and 2009–2012 are examined in greater depth. The data are also used to assess potential linkages between metrics of drought termination and catchment properties. The duration of drought termination is moderately negatively correlated with elevation (rs =  −0.47) and catchment average rainfall (rs =  −0.42), suggesting that wetter catchments in upland areas of the UK tend to experience shorter drought terminations. More urbanized catchments tend to have gradual drought terminations (contrary to expectations of flashy hydrological response in such areas), although this may also reflect the type of catchments typical of lowland England. Significant correlations are found between the duration of the drought development phase and both the duration (rs =  −0.29) and rate (rs =  0.28) of drought termination. This suggests that prolonged drought development phases tend to be followed by shorter and more abrupt drought terminations. The inventory helps to place individual events within a long-term context. The drought termination phase in 2009–2012 was, at the time, regarded as exceptional in terms of magnitude and spatial footprint, but the Thames river flow record identifies several comparable events before 1930. The chronology could, in due course, provide a basis for exploring the complex drivers, long-term variability, and impacts of drought termination events

Drought termination: concept and characterisation

There are numerous anecdotal examples of drought terminations documented throughout the historical record on most continents. The end of a drought is the critical time during which water resource managers urgently require information on the replenishment of supplies. Yet this phase has been relatively neglected by the academic community, with much of the existing body of research on drought termination assessing the likelihood of droughts ending rather than its temporal profile. In particular, there has been little effort to characterise drought termination events themselves. This is partly explained by existing definitions of drought termination as a specific point in time when drought is considered to have finished, rather than a more holistic consideration based on approaches developed within biological sciences. There is also a lack of understanding about how drought termination propagates through the hydrological cycle. This paper specifically examines and reviews available research on drought termination, highlighting limitations associated with current definitions and offering suggestions for characterising the temporal stages of drought. An alternative definition of drought termination is proposed: a period between the maximum negative anomaly and a return to above-average conditions. Once this phase has been delineated, the duration, rate and seasonality of drought termination can be derived. The utility of these metrics is illustrated through a case study of the 2010–2012 drought in the UK, and the propagation of drought termination between river flows and groundwater levels

Beyond the borders – burdens of Swedish food consumption due to agrochemicals, greenhouse gases and land-use change

The Authors Sweden\u27s environmental policy aims to solve domestic environmental problems without increasing environmental and health impacts overseas. Realizing this aim requires an indicator system with a consumption-based (or “footprint”) perspective that captures both local and global impacts and their development over time. In this paper, we present a set of novel footprint indicators to measure environmental pressures from Swedish food consumption. The indicators are calculated by combining data and statistics on agrochemicals and deforestation emissions with EXIOBASE3, a global Multi-Regional Input Output (MRIO) database with a unique and high level of product detail across countries. We estimate the use of pesticides and antimicrobial veterinary medicines associated with current Swedish food consumption and compare those footprint indicators with the EU-28. Carbon emissions from deforestation are calculated with a land balance model and included in the overall carbon footprint of food. We find that Sweden, with its large reliance of food imports, exert a significant agro-chemical and climate footprint overseas, mainly in the EU and Latin America. We point to a need for better data and statistics on the use of pesticides, veterinary medicines and agrochemicals residuals (especially in developing countries) as well as improved spatial data on agricultural activity to further reduce uncertainty in the environmental footprint of Swedish food consumption

Waist circumference and a body shape index and prostate cancer risk and mortality.

We recently found a negative association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of localised prostate cancer (PCa), no association with advanced PCa, and a positive association with PCa-specific mortality. In a 15% subpopulation of that study, we here investigated the measures of abdominal adiposity including waist circumference (WC) and A Body Shape Index (ABSI) in relation to PCa risk and mortality. We used data from 58,457 men from four Swedish cohorts to assess WC and ABSI in relation to PCa risk according to cancer risk category, including localised asymptomatic and symptomatic PCa and advanced PCa, and PCa-specific mortality. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During, on average, 10 years of follow-up, 3290 men were diagnosed with PCa and 387 died of PCa. WC was negatively associated with the risk of total PCa (HR per 10 cm, 0.95; 95% CI 0.92-0.99), localised PCa (HR per 10 cm, 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.96) and localised asymptomatic PCa cases detected through a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test (HR per 10 cm, 0.87, 95% CI 0.81-0.94). WC was not associated with the risk of advanced PCa (HR per 10 cm, 1.02, 95% CI 0.93-1.14) or with PCa-specific mortality (HR per 10 cm, 1.04, 95% CI 0.92-1.19). ABSI showed no associations with the risk of PCa or PCa-specific mortality. While the negative association between WC and the risk of localised PCa was partially driven by PSA-detected PCa cases, no association was found between abdominal adiposity and clinically manifest PCa in our population

Height, body mass index and prostate cancer risk and mortality by way of detection and cancer risk category.

Obesity is a risk factor for advanced, but not localised, prostate cancer (PCa), and for poor prognosis. However, the detection of localised PCa through asymptomatic screening might influence these associations. We investigated height and body mass index (BMI) among 431 902 men in five Swedish cohorts in relation to PCa risk, according to cancer risk category and detection mode, and PCa-specific mortality using Cox regression. Statistical tests were two-sided. Height was positively associated with localised intermediate-risk PCa (HR per 5 cm, 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), while overweight and obesity were negatively associated with localised low- and intermediate-risk PCa (HRs per 5 kg/m2 , 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, and 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97). However, these associations were partially driven by PCa's detected by asymptomatic screening and, for height, also by symptoms unrelated to PCa. The HR of localised PCa's, per 5 kg/m2 , was 0.88, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92 for screen-detected PCa's and 0.96, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.01 for PCa's detected through lower urinary tract symptoms. BMI was positively associated with PCa-specific mortality in the full population and in case-only analysis of each PCa risk category (HRs per 5 kg/m2 , 1.11-1.22, P for heterogeneity = .14). More active health-seeking behaviour among tall and normal-weight men may partially explain their higher risk of localised PCa. The higher PCa-specific mortality among obese men across all PCa risk categories in our study suggests obesity as a potential target to improve the prognosis of obese PCa patients

Rates and Determinants of Mother\u27s Own Milk Feeding in Infants Born Very Preterm

Objectives: To examine rates and determinants of mother\u27s own milk (MOM) feeding at hospital discharge in a cohort of infants born very preterm within the Canadian Neonatal Network (CNN). Study design: This was a population-based cohort study of infants born at (NICUs) participating in the CNN between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2018. We examined the rates and determinants of MOM use at discharge home among the participating NICUs. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify independent determinants of MOM feeding. Results: Among the 6404 infants born very preterm and discharged home during the study period, 4457 (70%) received MOM or MOM supplemented with formula. Rates of MOM feeding at discharge varied from 49% to 87% across NICUs. Determinants associated with MOM feeding at discharge were gestational age 29-32 weeks compared with (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.25-1.93), primipara mothers (aOR 2.12, 95% CI 1.86-2.42), maternal diabetes (aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66-0.93), and maternal smoking (aOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.19-0.38). Receipt of MOM by day 3 of age was the major predictor of breast milk feeding at discharge (aOR 3.61, 95% CI 3.17-4.12). Conclusions: Approximately two-thirds of infants born very preterm received MOM at hospital discharge, and rates varied across NICUs. Supporting mothers to provide breast milk in the first 3 days after birth may be associated with improved MOM feeding rates at discharge

Characterizing uncertainty of the hydrologic impacts of climate change

The high climate sensitivity of hydrologic systems, the importance of those systems to society, and the imprecise nature of future climate projections all motivate interest in characterizing uncertainty in the hydrologic impacts of climate change. We discuss recent research that exposes important sources of uncertainty that are commonly neglected by the water management community, especially, uncertainties associated with internal climate system variability, and hydrologic modeling. We also discuss research exposing several issues with widely used climate downscaling methods. We propose that progress can be made following parallel paths: first, by explicitly characterizing the uncertainties throughout the modeling process (rather than using an ad hoc “ensemble of opportunity”) and second, by reducing uncertainties through developing criteria for excluding poor methods/models, as well as with targeted research to improve modeling capabilities. We argue that such research to reveal, reduce, and represent uncertainties is essential to establish a defensible range of quantitative hydrologic storylines of climate change impacts

The 'dirty dozen' of freshwater science: detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors

Sound water policy and management rests on sound hydrometeorological and ecological data. Conversely, unrepresentative, poorly collected, or erroneously archived data introduce uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate, and direction of environmental change, in addition to undermining confidence in decision-making processes. Unfortunately, data biases and errors can enter the information flow at various stages, starting with site selection, instrumentation, sampling/measurement procedures, postprocessing and ending with archiving systems. Techniques such as visual inspection of raw data, graphical representation, and comparison between sites, outlier, and trend detection, and referral to metadata can all help uncover spurious data. Tell-tale signs of ambiguous and/or anomalous data are highlighted using 12 carefully chosen cases drawn mainly from hydrology (‘the dirty dozen’). These include evidence of changes in site or local conditions (due to land management, river regulation, or urbanization); modifications to instrumentation or inconsistent observer behavior; mismatched or misrepresentative sampling in space and time; treatment of missing values, postprocessing and data storage errors. Also for raising awareness of pitfalls, recommendations are provided for uncovering lapses in data quality after the information has been gathered. It is noted that error detection and attribution are more problematic for very large data sets, where observation networks are automated, or when various information sources have been combined. In these cases, more holistic indicators of data integrity are needed that reflect the overall information life-cycle and application(s) of the hydrological data

Feasibility of a novel participatory multi-sector continuous improvement approach to enhance food security in remote Indigenous Australian communities

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).Background Food insecurity underlies and compounds many of the development issues faced by remote Indigenous communities in Australia. Multi-sector approaches offer promise to improve food security. We assessed the feasibility of a novel multi-sector approach to enhance community food security in remote Indigenous Australia. Method A longitudinal comparative multi-site case study, the Good Food Systems Good Food for All Project, was conducted (2009–2013) with four Aboriginal communities. Continuous improvement meetings were held in each community. Data from project documents and store sales were used to assess feasibility according to engagement, uptake and sustainability of action, and impact on community diet, as well as identifying conditions facilitating or hindering these. Results Engagement was established where: the community perceived a need for the approach; where trust was developed between the community and facilitators; where there was community stability; and where flexibility was applied in the timing of meetings. The approach enabled stakeholders in each community to collectively appraise the community food system and plan action. Actions that could be directly implemented within available resources resulted from developing collaborative capacity. Actions requiring advocacy, multi-sectoral involvement, commitment or further resources were less frequently used. Positive shifts in community diet were associated with key areas where actions were implemented. Conclusion A multi-sector participatory approach seeking continuous improvement engaged committed Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal stakeholders and was shown to have potential to shift community diet. Provision of clear mechanisms to link this approach with higher level policy and decision-making structures, clarity of roles and responsibilities, and processes to prioritise and communicate actions across sectors should further strengthen capacity for food security improvement. Integrating this approach enabling local decision-making into community governance structures with adequate resourcing is an imperative