Higher Accuracy for Bayesian and Frequentist Inference: Large Sample Theory for Small Sample Likelihood

Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual evaluation of such $p$-values is by simulations, and such simulations do verify that the global distribution of the $p$-values is uniform(0, 1), to high accuracy in repeated sampling. The derivation of the $p$-values, however, asserts a stronger statement, that they have a uniform(0, 1) distribution conditionally, given identified precision information provided by the data. We take a simple regression example that involves exact precision information and use large sample techniques to extract highly accurate information as to the statistical position of the data point with respect to the parameter: specifically, we examine various $p$-values and Bayesian posterior survivor $s$-values for validity. With observed data we numerically evaluate the various $p$-values and $s$-values, and we also record the related general formulas. We then assess the numerical values for accuracy using Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods. We also propose some third-order likelihood-based procedures for obtaining means and variances of Bayesian posterior distributions, again followed by McMC assessment. Finally we propose some adaptive McMC methods to improve the simulation acceptance rates. All these methods are based on asymptotic analysis that derives from the effect of additional data. And the methods use simple calculations based on familiar maximizing values and related informations. The example illustrates the general formulas and the ease of calculations, while the McMC assessments demonstrate the numerical validity of the $p$-values as percentage position of a data point. The example, however, is very simple and transparent, and thus gives little indication that in a wide generality of models the formulas do accurately separate information for almost any parameter of interest, and then do give accurate $p$-value determinations from that information. As illustration an enigmatic problem in the literature is discussed and simulations are recorded; various examples in the literature are cited.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS240 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Effect of pollutant gases on ozone production by simulated solar radiation

Experiments using simulated solar radiation in a chamber, with a controlled atmospheric pressure near 1 atmosphere, were conducted to evaluate O3 production. The effects of CO and H2O were analyzed to determine if the CO and H2O addition could reduce NO destruction of O3. The results show that NO is destroyed while destroying O3

Effect of trichlorofluoromethane and molecular chlorine on ozone formation by simulated solar radiation

Mixtures of air with either Cl2 or CFCl3 were photolyzed in a reaction chamber by simulated solar radiation. Ozone formation was temporarily inhibited by Cl2 and permanently inhibited by CFCl3. A chemical mechanism including gas phase and wall reactions is proposed to explain these results. The CFCl3 is assumed to be adsorbed on the chamber walls and to poison the sites for Cl destruction

Effect of hydrocarbon fuel type on fuel

A modified jet fuel thermal oxidation tester (JFTOT) procedure was used to evaluate deposit and sediment formation for four pure hydrocarbon fuels over the temperature range 150 to 450 C in 316-stainless-steel heater tubes. Fuel types were a normal alkane, an alkene, a naphthene, and an aromatic. Each fuel exhibited certain distinctive deposit and sediment formation characteristics. The effect of aluminum and 316-stainless-steel heater tube surfaces on deposit formation for the fuel n-decane over the same temperature range was investigated. Results showed that an aluminum surface had lower deposit formation rates at all temperatures investigated. By using a modified JFTOT procedure the thermal stability of four pure hydrocarbon fuels and two practical fuels (Jet A and home heating oil no. 2) was rated on the basis of their breakpoint temperatures. Results indicate that this method could be used to rate thermal stability for a series of fuels

Quarkonia and Quark Drip Lines in Quark-Gluon Plasma

We extract the $Q$-$\bar Q$ potential by using the thermodynamic quantities obtained in lattice gauge calculations. The potential is tested and found to give dissociation temperatures that agree well with those from lattice gauge spectral function analysis. Using such a $Q$-$\bar Q$ potential, we examine the quarkonium states in a quark-gluon plasma and determine the `quark drip lines' which separate the region of bound color-singlet $Q\bar Q$ states from the unbound region. The characteristics of the quark drip lines severely limit the region of possible bound $Q\bar Q$ states with light quarks to temperatures close to the phase transition temperature. Bound quarkonia with light quarks may exist very near the phase transition temperature if their effective quark mass is of the order of 300-400 MeV and higher.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, in LaTe

Pion Interferometry for a Granular Source of Quark-Gluon Plasma Droplets

We examine the two-pion interferometry for a granular source of quark-gluon plasma droplets. The evolution of the droplets is described by relativistic hydrodynamics with an equation of state suggested by lattice gauge results. Pions are assumed to be emitted thermally from the droplets at the freeze-out configuration characterized by a freeze-out temperature $T_f$. We find that the HBT radius $R_{out}$ decreases if the initial size of the droplets decreases. On the other hand, $R_{side}$ depends on the droplet spatial distribution and is relatively independent of the droplet size. It increases with an increase in the width of the spatial distribution and the collective-expansion velocity of the droplets. As a result, the value of $R_{out}$ can lie close to $R_{side}$ for a granular quark-gluon plasma source. The granular model of the emitting source may provide an explanation to the RHIC HBT puzzle and may lead to a new insight into the dynamics of the quark-gluon plasma phase transition.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Myocardial fibrosis in stroke survivors

Stroke survivors are most likely to die of cardiac death, yet few undergo comprehensive cardiac assessment to look for reversible causes. Myocardial fibrosis (MF) is not only the hallmark of cardiomyopathy, but also a substrate for sudden cardiac death, ventricular tachyarrhythmia and heart failure. Procollagen carboxyl-terminal telopeptide (PICP) was found to be a marker of MF. The relationship between PICP and cardiac abnormalities in stroke survivors is unknown. We recently showed that MF in stroke survivors can be treated by spironolactone and amiloride in a randomised placebo-controlled cross-over study with reduction in PICP levels and QTc [1]

Review of California Wildfire Evacuations from 2017 to 2019

Between 2017 and 2019, California experienced a series of devastating wildfires that together led over one million people to be ordered to evacuate. Due to the speed of many of these wildfires, residents across California found themselves in challenging evacuation situations, often at night and with little time to escape. These evacuations placed considerable stress on public resources and infrastructure for both transportation and sheltering. In the face of these clear challenges, transportation and emergency management agencies across California have widely varying levels of preparedness for major disasters, and nearly all agencies do not have the public resources to adequately and swiftly evacuate all populations in danger. To holistically address these challenges and bolster current disaster and evacuation planning, preparedness, and response in California, we summarize the evacuations of eleven major wildfires in California between 2017 and 2019 and offer a cross-comparison to highlight key similarities and differences. We present results of new empirical data we collected via an online survey of individuals impacted by: 1) the 2017 October Northern California Wildfires (n=79), 2) the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n=226), and 3) the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=284). These data reveal the decision-making of individuals in these wildfires including choices related to evacuating or staying, departure timing, route, sheltering, destination, transportation mode, and reentry timing. We also present results related to communication and messaging, non-evacuee behavior, and opinion of government response. Using the summarized case studies and empirical evidence, we present a series of recommendations for agencies to prepare for, respond to, and recover from wildfires