Bitcoin: The Early Market

Bitcoin is a decentralized virtual crypto currency that has attracted attention from technologists, economists, consumers, regulators, black marketeers, venture capitalists and Wall Street commentators to name a few. While many debate issues such as whether or not bitcoin is money, how might it ultimately be regulated and whether or not it represents a truly disruptive innovation, this paper examines the current landscape of bitcoin and identifies some of the early adopters and significant events that have contributed to this unfolding phenomenon

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Impact of neutron star oscillations on the accelerating electric field in the polar cap of pulsar: or could we see oscillations of the neutron star after the glitch in pulsar?

Pulsar "standard model", that considers a pulsar as a rotating magnetized conducting sphere surrounded by plasma, is generalized to the case of oscillating star. We developed an algorithm for calculation of the Goldreich-Julian charge density for this case. We consider distortion of the accelerating zone in the polar cap of pulsar by neutron star oscillations. It is shown that for oscillation modes with high harmonic numbers (l,m) changes in the Goldreich-Julian charge density caused by pulsations of neutron star could lead to significant altering of an accelerating electric field in the polar cap of pulsar. In the moderately optimistic scenario, that assumes excitation of the neutron star oscillations by glitches, it could be possible to detect altering of the pulsar radioemission due to modulation of the accelerating field.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figures. Presented at the conference "Isolated Neutron Stars: from the Interior to the Surface", London, April 24-28, 2006; to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Sequences of Willmore surfaces

In this paper we develop the theory of Willmore sequences for Willmore surfaces in the 4-sphere. We show that under appropriate conditions this sequence has to terminate. In this case the Willmore surface either is the twistor projection of a holomorphic curve into complex projective space or the inversion of a minimal surface with planar ends in 4-space. These results give a unified explanation of previous work on the characterization of Willmore spheres and Willmore tori with non-trivial normal bundles by various authors.Comment: 10 page

A flexible framework for synthesizing human activity patterns with application to sequential categorical data

The ability to synthesize realistic data in a parametrizable way is valuable for a number of reasons, including privacy, missing data imputation, and evaluating the performance of statistical and computational methods. When the underlying data generating process is complex, data synthesis requires approaches that balance realism and simplicity. In this paper, we address the problem of synthesizing sequential categorical data of the type that is increasingly available from mobile applications and sensors that record participant status continuously over the course of multiple days and weeks. We propose the paired Markov Chain (paired-MC) method, a flexible framework that produces sequences that closely mimic real data while providing a straightforward mechanism for modifying characteristics of the synthesized sequences. We demonstrate the paired-MC method on two datasets, one reflecting daily human activity patterns collected via a smartphone application, and one encoding the intensities of physical activity measured by wearable accelerometers. In both settings, sequences synthesized by paired-MC better capture key characteristics of the real data than alternative approaches

An unusual kind of contrast adaptation: Shifting a contrast comparison level

We have found an unusual kind of contrast adaptation in human pattern vision that seems fundamentally different from previously reported effects. As the observer adapts to different levels of contrast, the visibility of some contrast-defined (second-order) patterns dramatically increases and that of others dramatically decreases. Oddly, visibility is poor for patterns containing contrasts both above and below the recent average contrast. To explain these effects, we hypothesize a new kind of process acting in concert with a known contrast-gain control of the normalization type. The new process compares current contrast to an adaptable comparison level; this level reflects the recent average contrast. Such a process existing at an early stage of visual processing is likely to have widespread effects at higher stages

Misunderstandings concerning income distribution policies

In this essay in honour of Professor P. Hennipman the latter's clarity and precision of expression are chosen as an example of how to avoid misunderstanding of his publications. As counterexamples some twenty-odd misunderstandings are set out by the essay's author in the field of income distribution policies, ranging from that specific subject to the theory of economic policy, to economic science and to science as a whole. Several of these misunderstandings are due to the essay's author, while others seem to prevail either among the general public or among scientists