As if or What? – Expectations and Optimization in a Simple Macroeconomic Environment

In this paper we report the results of a laboratory experiment, in which we observed the behavior of agents in a simple macroeconomic setting. The structure of the economy was only partially known to the players which is a realistic feature of our experiment. We investigate whether subjects manage to approach optimal behavior even if they lack important information. Furthermore, we analyze subjects’ perceptions of the model and whether their behavior is consistent with their perceptions. The full information model predicts changes of employment correctly, but not the level of employment. In the aggregate, subjects have correct perceptions, although individual perceptions are biased.We finally show that deviations from the full information solution are due to optimization failures than than misperceptions.Methodology, macroeconomic experiment, perceptions, optimization, expectations

Are Expectations Formed by the Anchoring-and-adjustment Heuristic? – An Experimental Investigation

Previous experimental investigations have shown that expectations are not perfectly rational due to bias. Traditional adaptive models, however, in many cases do not perfectly describe the formation of expectations either. This paper makes two contributions to the experimental literature on the formation of expectations: First, we investigate whether subjects who have more information about the economic model than in previous studies also form biased expectations. Second, we argue that in some cases macroeconomic expectations might be formed by the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which is well known in psychology. We find that subjects’ expectations are biased although the design might be more favorable to rational expectations.The anchoring- and-adjustment model of expectations gets some support by our data, but the best model encompasses both the anchoring-and-adjustment model and the traditional adaptive model.Expectations, heuristics, beliefs, mental models, macroeconomic experiment

InP-quantum dots in Al0.20Ga0.80InP with different barrier configurations

Systematic ensemble photoluminescence studies have been performed on type-I InP-quantum dots in Al0.20Ga0.80InP barriers, emitting at approximately 1.85 eV at 5 K. The influence of different barrier configurations as well as the incorporation of additional tunnel barriers on the optical properties has been investigated. The confinement energy between the dot barrier and the surrounding barrier layers, which is the sum of the band discontinuities for the valence and the conduction bands, was chosen to be approximately 190 meV by using Al0.50Ga0.50InP. In combination with 2 nm thick AlInP tunnel barriers, the internal quantum efficiency of these barrier configurations can be increased by up to a factor of 20 at elevated temperatures with respect to quantum dots without such layers.Comment: physica status solidi (c) (Proceedings of QD 2008

Light Resonances and the Low-q2q^2 Bin of RK∗R_{K^*}

LHCb has reported hints of lepton-flavor universality violation in the rare decays $B \to K^{(*)} \ell^+\ell^-$, both in high- and low-$q^2$ bins. Although the high-$q^2$ hint may be explained by new short-ranged interactions, the low-$q^2$ one cannot. We thus explore the possibility that the latter is explained by a new light resonance. We find that LHCb's central value of $R_{K^*}$ in the low-$q^2$ bin is achievable in a restricted parameter space of new-physics scenarios in which the new, light resonance decays preferentially to electrons and has a mass within approximately $10$ MeV of the di-muon threshold. Interestingly, such an explanation can have a kinematic origin and does not require a source of lepton-flavor universality violation. A model-independent prediction is a narrow peak in the differential $B \to K^* e^+e^-$ rate close to the di-muon threshold. If such a peak is observed, other observables, such as the differential $B \to K e^+e^-$ rate and $R_K$, may be employed to distinguish between models. However, if a low-mass resonance is not observed and the low-$q^2$ anomaly increases in significance, then the case for an experimental origin of the lepton-flavor universality violating anomalies would be strengthened. To further explore this, we also point out that, in analogy to $J/\psi$ decays, $e^+e^-$ and $\mu^+\mu^-$ decays of $\phi$ mesons can be used as a cross check of lepton-flavor universality by LHCb with $5$ fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figure

Inflammation in the CNS: advancing the field using intravital imaging

Inflammation of the CNS can have devastating, long-lived, and in some cases fatal consequences for patients. The stimuli that can induce CNS inflammation are diverse, and include infectious agents, autoimmune responses against CNS-expressed antigens, and sterile inflammation following ischemia or traumatic injury. In these conditions, cells of the immune system play central roles in promulgation and resolution of the inflammatory response. However, the immunological mechanisms at work in these diverse responses differ according to the nature of the response. Our understanding of the actions of immune cells in the CNS has been restricted by the difficulty in visualising leukocytes as they undergo recruitment from the cerebral microvasculature and following their entry into the CNS parenchyma. However, advances in in vivo microscopy over the last 10-15 years have overcome many of these difficulties, and studies using these forms of microscopy have revealed a wealth of new information regarding the cellular and molecular mechanisms of CNS inflammation. This Research Topic brings together state of the art reviews examining the use of in vivo imaging in investigating inflammation and leukocyte behaviour in the CNS. Papers in this Research Topic describe how in vivo microscopy has increased our understanding of the actions of immune cells in the inflamed CNS, following various stimuli including autoimmunity, infection and sterile inflammation

Intercalibration of Boreal and Tethyan timescales: the magneto-biostratigraphy of the Middle Triassic and the latest Early Triassic from Spitsbergen, Arctic Norway

An integrated bio-magnetostratigraphic study of the latest Early Triassic to the upper parts of the Middle Triassic, at Milne Edwardsfjellet in central Spitsbergen, Svalbard, allows a detailed correlation of Boreal and Tethyan biostratigraphies. The biostratigraphy consists of ammonoid and palynomorph zonations, supported by conodonts, through some 234 m of succession in two adjacent sections. The magnetostratigraphy consists of ten substantive normal–reverse polarity chrons defined by sampling at 150 stratigraphic levels. The magnetization is carried by magnetite and an unidentified magnetic sulphide, and is difficult to fully separate from a strong present-day like magnetization. The bio-magnetostratigraphy from the late Olenekian (Vendomdalen Member) is supplemented by data from nearby Vikinghøgda. The early and mid-Anisian has a high sedimentation rate, comprising over half the ca. 140-m thickness of the Botneheia Formation, whereas the late Anisian and lower Ladinian is condensed into about 20 m. The two latest Boreal Ladinian ammonoid zones are absent due to erosional truncation below the Tschermakfjellet Formation. Correlation to Tethyan bio-magnetostratigraphies shows the traditional base of the Boreal Anisian (base of G. taimyrensis Zone) precedes the base Anisian (using here definitions based on the Desli Caira section in Romania). The Boreal upper Anisian G. rotelliforme and F. nevadanus ammonoid zones correlate to most of the Tethyan Pelsonian and Illyrian substages. The base Ladinian defined in the Tethyan global boundary stratotype and point (GSSP) is closely equivalent to the traditional base of the Boreal Ladinian at the I. oleshkoi Zone. The latest Olenekian to early Anisian magnetic polarity timescale is refined using the Spitsbergen data

Comparison of Intravitreal Bevacizumab Upload Followed by a Dexamethasone Implant versus Dexamethasone Implant Monotherapy for Retinal Vein Occlusion with Macular Edema

Purpose: To compare the efficacy and safety of three intravitreal bevacizumab upload injections followed by a dexamethasone implant versus dexamethasone implant monotherapy in eyes with macular edema due to retinal vein occlusion. Methods: Sixty-four eyes of 64 patients were included in this prospective, consecutive, nonrandomized case series: group 1 consisted of 38 patients (22 with central retinal vein occlusion, CRVO, 16 with branch retinal vein occlusion, BRVO) treated using a dexamethasone implant (Ozurdex) alone; group 2 consisted of 26 patients (14 CRVO, 12 BRVO) treated with three consecutive intravitreal bevacizumab injections at monthly intervals followed by a dexamethasone implant. In case of recurrence, both cohorts received further dexamethasone implants. Preoperatively and monthly best corrected visual acuity (BCVA, ETDRS), central retinal thickness (Spectralis-OCT), intraocular pressure, and wide-angle fundus photodocumentation (Optomap) were performed. The primary clinical endpoint was BCVA at 6 months after initiation of therapy. Secondary endpoints were central retinal thickness and safety of the therapy applied. Results: In group 1, an increase in BCVA of 2.5 (+/- 1.6) letters in the CRVO and of 13.0 (+/- 3.2) letters in BRVO patients was seen after 6 months, in group 2 of 5.9 (+/- 0.4) letters (CRVO) and 3.8 (+/- 2.4) letters (BRVO), which was not statistically significant. When comparing the two treatment groups with respect to the type of vein occlusion, there was a significant advantage for BRVO patients for the dexamethasone implant monotherapy (BRVO patients in group 1, p = 0.005). Central retinal thickness showed a significant reduction after 6 months only in patients of group 1, both for CRVO (p = 0.01) and BRVO (p = 0.003). First recurrence after the first dexamethasone implant injection occurred after 3.8 months (mean) in CRVO and 3.5 months in BRVO patients (group 1), versus 3.2 and 3.7 months, respectively, in group 2. In group 1, 63.6% with CRVO and 50% with BRVO showed an increased intraocular pressure after treatment; in group 2, 57.1% with CRVO and 50.0% with BRVO, respectively. Conclusion: In CRVO, there was no difference between the two treatment strategies investigated. However, in BRVO, dexamethasone implant monotherapy was associated with better functional outcome. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base