HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO): fine-grained, global-scale measurements of climatically important atmospheric gases and aerosols

The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) programme has completed three of five planned aircraft transects spanning the Pacific from 85° N to 67° S, with vertical profiles every approximately 2.2° of latitude. Measurements include greenhouse gases, long-lived tracers, reactive species, O2/N2 ratio, black carbon (BC), aerosols and CO2 isotopes. Our goals are to address the problem of determining surface emissions, transport strength and patterns, and removal rates of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols at global scales and to provide strong tests of satellite data and global models. HIPPO data show dense pollution and BC at high altitudes over the Arctic, imprints of large N2O sources from tropical lands and convective storms, sources of pollution and biogenic CH4 in the Arctic, and summertime uptake of CO2 and sources for O2 at high southern latitudes. Global chemical signatures of atmospheric transport are imaged, showing remarkably sharp horizontal gradients at air mass boundaries, weak vertical gradients and inverted profiles (maxima aloft) in both hemispheres. These features challenge satellite algorithms, global models and inversion analyses to derive surface fluxes. HIPPO data can play a crucial role in identifying and resolving questions of global sources, sinks and transport of atmospheric gases and aerosols.Engineering and Applied Science

Least independent variables method for simulation of tropospheric ozone

We describe a method for simulating photochemical production of O in a continental‐scale tropospheric model with only six independent chemical variables representing tracers transported in the model. The tracers are two primary hydrocarbon families, CO, NO, peroxyacylnitrates, and odd oxygen (O). A chemical module is developed to compute the production and loss rates of tracers over a model time step of 4 hours, using only information on the tracer concentrations input to the module at the beginning of the time step. Test simulations for summertime conditions at mid‐latitudes indicate little loss in accuracy compared to detailed model simulations of chemistry with high time resolution. Minimization of the number of tracers and use of a long time step reduces computer time and storage requirements. In addition, parameterization of the chemical computation is facilitated, allowing further savings in computer time.Engineering and Applied Science

Coupled weather research and forecasting–stochastic time-inverted lagrangian transport (WRF–STILT) model

This paper describes the coupling between a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model, the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. The primary motivation for developing this coupled model has been to reduce transport errors in continental-scale top–down estimates of terrestrial greenhouse gas fluxes. Examples of the model’s application are shown here for backward trajectory computations originating at CO2 measurement sites in North America. Owing to its unique features, including meteorological realism and large support base, good mass conservation properties, and a realistic treatment of convection within STILT, the WRF–STILT model offers an attractive tool for a wide range of applications, including inverse flux estimates, flight planning, satellite validation, emergency response and source attribution, air quality, and planetary exploration.Engineering and Applied Science

Modeling Analysis of Primary Controls on Net Ecosystem Productivity of Seven Boreal and Temperate Coniferous Forests Across a Continental Transect

Process-based models are effective tools to synthesize and/or extrapolate measured carbon (C) exchanges from individual sites to large scales. In this study, we used a C- and nitrogen (N)-cycle coupled ecosystem model named CN-CLASS (Carbon Nitrogen-Canadian Land Surface Scheme) to study the role of primary climatic controls and site-specific C stocks on the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of seven intermediate-aged to mature coniferous forest sites across an east–west continental transect in Canada. The model was parameterized using a common set of parameters, except for two used in empirical canopy conductance–assimilation, and leaf area–sapwood relationships, and then validated using observed eddy covariance flux data. Leaf Rubisco-N dynamics that are associated with soil–plant N cycling, and depend on canopy temperature, enabled the model to simulate site-specific gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) reasonably well for all seven sites. Overall GEP simulations had relatively smaller differences compared with observations vs. ecosystem respiration (RE), which was the sum of many plant and soil components with larger variability and/or uncertainty associated with them. Both observed and simulated data showed that, on an annual basis, boreal forest sites were either carbon-neutral or a weak C sink, ranging from 30 to 180 g C m−2 yr−1; while temperate forests were either a medium or strong C sink, ranging from 150 to 500 g C m−2 yr−1, depending on forest age and climatic regime. Model sensitivity tests illustrated that air temperature, among climate variables, and aboveground biomass, among major C stocks, were dominant factors impacting annual NEP. Vegetation biomass effects on annual GEP, RE and NEP showed similar patterns of variability at four boreal and three temperate forests. Air temperature showed different impacts on GEP and RE, and the response varied considerably from site to site. Higher solar radiation enhanced GEP, while precipitation differences had a minor effect. Magnitude of forest litter content and soil organic matter (SOM) affected RE. SOM also affected GEP, but only at low levels of SOM, because of low N mineralization that limited soil nutrient (N) availability. The results of this study will help to evaluate the impact of future climatic changes and/or forest C stock variations on C uptake and loss in forest ecosystems growing in diverse environments.Earth and Planetary Science

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

This report assesses the potential atmospheric impacts of a proposed fleet of high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. The purpose of the report is to assess the effects of HSCT's on atmospheric composition and climate in order to provide a scientific basis for making technical, commercial, and environmental policy decisions regarding the HSCT fleet. The work summarized here was carried out as part of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (a component of the High-Speed Research Program) as well as other NASA, U.S., and international research programs. The principal focus is on change in stratospheric ozone concentrations. The impact on climate change is also a concern. The report describes progress in understanding atmospheric processes, the current state of understanding of HSCT emissions, numerical model predictions of HSCT impacts, the principal uncertainties in atmospheric predictions, and the associated sensitivities in predicted effects of HSCT'S

Investigating Alaskan Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Using Measurements from the CARVE Tower

Northern high-latitude carbon sources and sinks, including those resulting from degrading permafrost, are thought to be sensitive to the rapidly warming climate. Because the near-surface atmosphere integrates surface fluxes over large ( ∼ 500–1000 km) scales, atmospheric monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) mole fractions in the daytime mixed layer is a promising method for detecting change in the carbon cycle throughout boreal Alaska. Here we use CO2 and CH4 measurements from a NOAA tower 17 km north of Fairbanks, AK, established as part of NASA\u27s Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), to investigate regional fluxes of CO2 and CH4 for 2012–2014. CARVE was designed to use aircraft and surface observations to better understand and quantify the sensitivity of Alaskan carbon fluxes to climate variability. We use high-resolution meteorological fields from the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (hereafter, WRF-STILT), along with the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (PolarVPRM), to investigate fluxes of CO2 in boreal Alaska using the tower observations, which are sensitive to large areas of central Alaska. We show that simulated PolarVPRM–WRF-STILT CO2 mole fractions show remarkably good agreement with tower observations, suggesting that the WRF-STILT model represents the meteorology of the region quite well, and that the PolarVPRM flux magnitudes and spatial distribution are generally consistent with CO2 mole fractions observed at the CARVE tower. One exception to this good agreement is that during the fall of all 3 years, PolarVPRM cannot reproduce the observed CO2 respiration. Using the WRF-STILT model, we find that average CH4 fluxes in boreal Alaska are somewhat lower than flux estimates by Chang et al. (2014) over all of Alaska for May–September 2012; we also find that enhancements appear to persist during some wintertime periods, augmenting those observed during the summer and fall. The possibility of significant fall and winter CO2 and CH4 fluxes underscores the need for year-round in situ observations to quantify changes in boreal Alaskan annual carbon balance

Methane emissions from Alaska in 2012 from CARVE airborne observations

We determined methane (CH4) emissions from Alaska, USA using airborne measurements from the Carbon Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Atmospheric sampling was conducted between May and September 2012, and analyzed using a customized version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecast model linked to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport Model). We estimated growing season CH4 fluxes of 8 2 mg CH4 m 2 d 1 averaged over all of Alaska, corresponding to fluxes from wetlands of 56+22 13 20 mg CH4 m 2 d 1 if we assumed that wetlands are the only source from the land surface (all uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals from a bootstrapping analysis). Fluxes roughly doubled from May to July, then decreased gradually in August and September. Integrated emissions totaled 25 2:1 0:5 Tg CH4 for Alaska from May to September 2012, close to the average (2.3, range 0.7-6 Tg CH4) predicted by various land surface models and inversion analyses for the growing season. Methane emissions from boreal Alaska were larger than from the North Slope; the monthly regional flux estimates show no evidence of enhanced 30 emissions during early spring or late fall, although these bursts may be more localized in time and space than can be detected by our analysis. These results provide an important baseline to which future studies can be compared.Engineering and Applied Science

Vertical profiles of CO2 above eastern Amazonia suggest a net carbon flux to the atmosphere and balanced biosphere between 2000 and 2009

From 2000 until January 2010 vertical profiles were collected above eastern Amazonia to help determine regional-scale (∼105–106 km2) fluxes of carbon cycle-related greenhouse gases. Samples were collected aboard light aircraft between the surface and 4.3 km and a column integration technique was used to determine the CO2 flux. Measured CO2 profiles were differenced from the CO2 background determined from measurements in the tropical Atlantic. The observed annual flux between the coast and measurement sites was 0.40 ± 0.27 gC m−2 d−1 (90% confidence interval using a bootstrap analysis). The wet season (January–June) mean flux was 0.44 ± 0.38 gC m−2 d−1 (positive fluxes defined as a source to the atmosphere) and the dry season mean flux was 0.35 ± 0.17 gC m−2 d−1 (July–December). The observed flux variability is high, principally in the wet season. The influence of biomass burning has been removed using co-measured CO, and revealed the presence of a significant dry season sink. The annual mean vegetation flux, after the biomass burning correction, was 0.02 ± 0.27 gC m−2 d−1, and a clear sink was observed between August and November of −0.70 ± 0.21 gC m−2 d−1 where for all of the dry season it was −0.24 ± 0.17 gC m−2 d−1.Earth and Planetary Science

Carbon Dioxide Sources from Alaska Driven by Increasing Early Winter Respiration from Artic Tundra

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10–30% to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with siteto regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model’s estimate of aerenchyma area, which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH4 predictions and sitelevel observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH4 cycle are from the wetland extent, coldseason CH4 production and CH4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in highlatitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements