Predicting Hospital-Acquired Infections by Scoring System with Simple Parameters

BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired infections (HAI) are associated with increased attributable morbidity, mortality, prolonged hospitalization, and economic costs. A simple, reliable prediction model for HAI has great clinical relevance. The objective of this study is to develop a scoring system to predict HAI that was derived from Logistic Regression (LR) and validated by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) simultaneously. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 476 patients from all the 806 HAI inpatients were included for the study between 2004 and 2005. A sample of 1,376 non-HAI inpatients was randomly drawn from all the admitted patients in the same period of time as the control group. External validation of 2,500 patients was abstracted from another academic teaching center. Sixteen variables were extracted from the Electronic Health Records (EHR) and fed into ANN and LR models. With stepwise selection, the following seven variables were identified by LR models as statistically significant: Foley catheterization, central venous catheterization, arterial line, nasogastric tube, hemodialysis, stress ulcer prophylaxes and systemic glucocorticosteroids. Both ANN and LR models displayed excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]: 0.964 versus 0.969, p = 0.507) to identify infection in internal validation. During external validation, high AUC was obtained from both models (AUC: 0.850 versus 0.870, p = 0.447). The scoring system also performed extremely well in the internal (AUC: 0.965) and external (AUC: 0.871) validations. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a scoring system to predict HAI with simple parameters validated with ANN and LR models. Armed with this scoring system, infectious disease specialists can more efficiently identify patients at high risk for HAI during hospitalization. Further, using parameters either by observation of medical devices used or data obtained from EHR also provided good prediction outcome that can be utilized in different clinical settings

Automated Detection of External Ventricular and Lumbar Drain-Related Meningitis Using Laboratory and Microbiology Results and Medication Data

OBJECTIVE: Monitoring of healthcare-associated infection rates is important for infection control and hospital benchmarking. However, manual surveillance is time-consuming and susceptible to error. The aim was, therefore, to develop a prediction model to retrospectively detect drain-related meningitis (DRM), a frequently occurring nosocomial infection, using routinely collected data from a clinical data warehouse. METHODS: As part of the hospital infection control program, all patients receiving an external ventricular (EVD) or lumbar drain (ELD) (2004 to 2009; n = 742) had been evaluated for the development of DRM through chart review and standardized diagnostic criteria by infection control staff; this was the reference standard. Children, patients dying <24 hours after drain insertion or with <1 day follow-up and patients with infection at the time of insertion or multiple simultaneous drains were excluded. Logistic regression was used to develop a model predicting the occurrence of DRM. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Bootstrapping was applied to increase generalizability. RESULTS: 537 patients remained after application of exclusion criteria, of which 82 developed DRM (13.5/1000 days at risk). The automated model to detect DRM included the number of drains placed, drain type, blood leukocyte count, C-reactive protein, cerebrospinal fluid leukocyte count and culture result, number of antibiotics started during admission, and empiric antibiotic therapy. Discriminatory power of this model was excellent (area under the ROC curve 0.97). The model achieved 98.8% sensitivity (95% CI 88.0% to 99.9%) and specificity of 87.9% (84.6% to 90.8%). Positive and negative predictive values were 56.9% (50.8% to 67.9%) and 99.9% (98.6% to 99.9%), respectively. Predicted yearly infection rates concurred with observed infection rates. CONCLUSION: A prediction model based on multi-source data stored in a clinical data warehouse could accurately quantify rates of DRM. Automated detection using this statistical approach is feasible and could be applied to other nosocomial infections

Examination of carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1 abundance in white adipose tissue: implications in obesity research

Carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1 (CPT1) is essential for the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria for oxidation. Recently, it was reported that decreased CPT1b mRNA in adipose tissue was a contributing factor for obesity in rats. We therefore closely examined the expression level of in adipose tissue from mice, rats, and humans. is the predominate isoform in adipose tissue from all three species. Rat white adipose tissue has a moderate amount of mRNA, but it is very minor compared with expression in muscle. Total CPT1 activity in adipose tissue is also minor relative to other tissues. Both and mRNA were increased in gonadal fat but not inguinal fat by diet-induced obesity in mice. We also measured and expression in subcutaneous adipose tissue from human subjects with a wide range of body mass indexes (BMIs). Interestingly, expression positively correlated with BMI ( = 0.46), but there was no correlation with ( = 0.04). Our findings indicate that white adipose tissue fatty acid oxidation capacity is minor compared with that of metabolically active tissues. Furthermore, given the already low abundance of in white adipose tissue, it is unlikely that decreases in its expression can quantitatively decrease whole body energy expenditure enough to contribute to an obese phenotype