Toward Near‐Field Tsunami Forecasting Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using Rapid GNSS Source Models

Over the past 15 years and through multiple large and devastating earthquakes, tsunami warning systems have grown considerably in their efficacy in providing timely and accurate forecasts to affected communities. However, one part of tsunami warning that still needs improvement is forecasts catered to local, near‐field communities in the time after an earthquake rupture but before coastal inundation. In this study, we test a rapid, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)‐driven earthquake characterization model using a large data set of synthetic megathrust ruptures for its near‐field tsunami forecasting potential. We also provide a framework for tsunami forecasting that focuses on the likelihood of exceedance of user‐defined coastal amplitudes that may be of use in the first 15 min following an earthquake. Specifically, we can estimate the earthquake magnitude, without saturation, for 82% of tested ruptures. We can also identify test ruptures as dominantly thrust events, without analyst guidance for 92% of tested thrust ruptures. Finally, modeling the tsunami component of our rapidly estimated fault rupture leads to greater than 80% accuracy in identifying tsunami impact at key coastal amplitude thresholds. This is promising for near‐field warning when the time prior to inundation is limited to tens of minutes. We focus this study on large megathrust ruptures along the quiescent Cascadia subduction zone where there is already a dense GNSS network

A process evaluation of user fees abolition for pregnant women and children under five years in two districts in Niger (West Africa)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>African policy-makers are increasingly considering abolishing user fees as a solution to improve access to health care systems. There is little evidence on this subject in West Africa, and particularly in countries that have organized their healthcare system on the basis of the Bamako Initiative. This article presents a process evaluation of an NGO intervention to abolish user fees in Niger for children under five years and pregnant women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The intervention was launched in 2006 in two health districts and 43 health centres. The intervention consisted of abolishing user fees and improving the quality of services (drugs, ambulance, etc.). We carried out a process evaluation in April 2007 using qualitative and quantitative data. Three data collection methods were used: i) individual in-depth interviews (n = 85) and focus groups (n = 8); ii) participant observation in 12 health centres; and iii) self-administered structured questionnaires (n = 51 health staff).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The population favoured abolition; health officials and local decision-makers were in favour, but they worried about its sustainability. Among health workers, opposition to providing free services was more widespread. The strengths of the process were: a top-down phase of information and raising community awareness; appropriate incentive measures; a good drug supply system; and the organization of a medical evacuation system. The major weaknesses of the process were: the perverse effects of incentive bonuses; the lack of community-based management committees' involvement in the management; the creation of a system running in parallel with the BI system; the lack of action to support the service offer; and the poor coordination of the availability of free services at different levels of the health pyramid. Some unintended outcomes are also documented.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The linkages between systems in which some patients pay (Bamako Initiative) and some do not should be carefully considered and organized in accordance with the local reality. For the poorest patients to really benefit, it is essential that, at the same time, the quality of services be improved and mechanisms be put in place to prevent abuses. Much remains to be done to generate knowledge on the processes for abolishing fees in West Africa.</p

Validation of the Brief Developmental Assessment in pre-school children with heart disease

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to prospectively validate the “Brief Developmental Assessment”, which is a new early recognition tool for neurodevelopmental abnormalities in children with heart disease that was developed for use by cardiac teams. METHODS: This was a prospective validation study among a representative sample of 960 pre-school children with heart disease from three United Kingdom tertiary cardiac centres who were analysed grouped into five separate age bands. RESULTS: The “Brief Developmental Assessment” was successfully validated in the older four age bands, but not in the youngest representing infants under the age of 4 months, as pre-set validation thresholds were met – lower 95% confidence limit for the correlation coefficient above 0.75 – in terms of agreement of scores between two raters and with an external measure the “Mullen Scales of Early Learning”. On the basis of American Association of Pediatrics Guidelines, which state that the sensitivity and specificity of a developmental screening tool should fall between 70 and 80%, “Brief Developmental Assessment” outcome of Red meets this threshold for detection of Mullen scores >2 standard deviations below the mean. CONCLUSION: The “Brief Developmental Assessment” may be used to improve the quality of assessment of children with heart disease. This will require a training package for users and a guide to action for abnormal results. Further research is needed to determine how best to deploy the “Brief Developmental Assessment” at different time points in children with heart disease and to determine the management strategy in infants younger than 4 months old

A literature review of the disruptive effects of user fee exemption policies on health systems

BACKGROUND: Several low- and middle-income countries have exempted patients from user fees in certain categories of population or of services. These exemptions are very effective in lifting part of the financial barrier to access to services, but they have been organized within unstable health systems where there are sometimes numerous dysfunctions. The objective of this article is to bring to light the disruptions triggered by exemption policies in health systems of low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Scoping review of 23 scientific articles. The data were synthesized according to the six essential functions of health systems. RESULTS: The disruptions included specifically: 1) immediate and significant increases in service utilization; 2) perceived heavier workloads for health workers, feelings of being exploited and overworked, and decline in morale; 3) lack of information about free services provided and their reimbursement; 4) unavailability of drugs and delays in the distribution of consumables; 5) unpredictable and insufficient funding, revenue losses for health centres, reimbursement delays; 6) the multiplicity of actors and the difficulty of identifying who is responsible ('no blame' game), and deficiencies in planning and communication. CONCLUSIONS: These disruptive elements give us an idea of what is to be expected if exemption policies do not put in place all the required conditions in terms of preparation, planning and complementary measures. There is a lack of knowledge on the effects of exemptions on all the functions of health systems because so few studies have been carried out from this perspective

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model

BACKGROUND: Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. METHODS: The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. RESULTS: The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. CONCLUSIONS: A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables

More on Supersymmetric Domain Walls, N Counting and Glued Potentials

Various features of domain walls in supersymmetric gluodynamics are discussed. We give a simple field-theoretic interpretation of the phenomenon of strings ending on the walls recently conjectured by Witten. An explanation of this phenomenon in the framework of gauge field theory is outlined. The phenomenon is argued to be particularly natural in supersymmetric theories which support degenerate vacuum states with distinct physical properties. The issue of existence (or non-existence) of the BPS saturated walls in the theories with glued (super)potentials is addressed. The amended Veneziano-Yankielowicz effective Lagrangian belongs to this class. The physical origin of the cusp structure of the effective Lagrangian is revealed, and the limitation it imposes on the calculability of the wall tension is explained. Related problems are considered. In particular, it is shown that the so called discrete anomaly matching, when properly implemented, does not rule out the chirally symmetric phase of supersymmetric gluodynamics, contrary to recent claims.Comment: 40 pages, Latex, 5 figures. Several references added, final version to be published in Physical Review

Assessing Communities of Practice in health policy : A conceptual framework as a first step towards empirical research

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