Procedures for the Establishment of Standards. Final Report. Vol.2

This final report summarizes two years of research on analyzing procedures for the establishment of standards. The research was sponsored by the Volkswagenwerk Foundation and jointly carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis at Laxenburg and the Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The final report is meant to be both a problem-oriented review of related work in the area of environmental standard setting and an executive summary of the main research done during the contract period. The following eleven technical papers (Volume II of the Final Report) are reference reports written to accompany Volume I. They describe the studies and findings performed under the contract in more detail, and they have been either published as IIASA Research Memoranda or as outside publications, or were especially written for this report. These technical reports are structured in four parts: (1) policy analyses of standard setting procedures; (2) decision and game theoretic models for standard setting; (3) applications of decision game theoretic models to specific standard setting problems; and (4) biological basis for standard setting

Assessing the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of subcutaneous nerve stimulation in patients with predominant back pain due to failed back surgery syndrome (SubQStim study): study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Chronic radicular pain can be effectively treated with spinal cord stimulation, but this therapy is not always sufficient for chronic back pain. Subcutaneous nerve stimulation (SQS) refers to the placement of percutaneous leads in the subcutaneous tissue within the area of pain. Case series data show that failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) patients experience clinically important levels of pain relief following SQS and may also reduce their levels of analgesic therapy and experience functional well-being. However, to date, there is no randomized controlled trial evidence to support the use of SQS in FBSS.Medtronic Inc

Decision management for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is in the process of developing estimates for the radiation doses that individuals and population groups may have received as a result of past activities at the Hanford Reservation in Eastern Washington. A formal decision-aiding methodology has been developed to assist the HEDR Project in making significant and defensible decisions regarding how this study will be conducted. These decisions relate primarily to policy (e.g., the appropriate level of public participation in the study) and specific technical aspects (e.g., the appropriate domain and depth of the study), and may have significant consequences with respect to technical results, costs, and public acceptability

Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond

The world today is increasingly confronted with systemic threats and challenges, in which femtorisks - small-scale dangers that are inherent to system structures and function and which pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks - can build in consequence, spreading uncontrollably like epidemics in both natural and social systems in such diverse areas as ecology, epidemiology, finance, the Internet, terrorism, and international relations. They have been successfully modeled in ecology in the context of complex adaptive systems: systems made up of individual agents, whose interactions have macroscopic consequences that feed back to influence individual behavior. While acknowledging challenges, this paper argues for the value of applying to societal systems the approaches that natural scientists have developed in quantifying and modeling biological interactions and ecosystems

Neutron Scattering study of Sr_2Cu_3O_4Cl_2

We report a neutron scattering study on the tetragonal compound Sr_2Cu_3O_4Cl_2, which has two-dimensional (2D) interpenetrating Cu_I and Cu_{II} subsystems, each forming a S=1/2 square lattice quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet (SLQHA). The mean-field ground state is degenerate, since the inter-subsystem interactions are geometrically frustrated. Magnetic neutron scattering experiments show that quantum fluctuations lift the degeneracy and cause a 2D Ising ordering of the Cu_{II} subsystem. Due to quantum fluctuations a dramatic increase of the Cu_I out-of-plane spin-wave gap is also observed. The temperature dependence and the dispersion of the spin-wave energy are quantitatively explained by spin-wave calculations which include quantum fluctuations explicitly. The values for the nearest-neighbor superexchange interactions between the Cu_I and Cu_{II} ions and between the Cu_{II} ions are determined experimentally to be J_{I-II} = -10(2)meV and J_{II}= 10.5(5)meV, respectively. Due to its small exchange interaction, J_{II}, the 2D dispersion of the Cu_{II} SLQHA can be measured over the whole Brillouin zone with thermal neutrons, and a novel dispersion at the zone boundary, predicted by theory, is confirmed. The instantaneous magnetic correlation length of the Cu_{II} SLQHA is obtained up to a very high temperature, T/J_{II}\approx 0.75. This result is compared with several theoretical predictions as well as recent experiments on the S=1/2 SLQHA.Comment: Figures and equations are rearrange

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns

Thinking styles and doctors' knowledge and behaviours relating to acute coronary syndromes guidelines

Background How humans think and make decisions is important in understanding behaviour. Hence an understanding of cognitive processes among physicians may inform our understanding of behaviour in relation to evidence implementation strategies. A personality theory, Cognitive-Experiential Self Theory (CEST) proposes a relationship between different ways of thinking and behaviour, and articulates pathways for behaviour change. However prior to the empirical testing of interventions based on CEST, it is first necessary to demonstrate its suitability among a sample of healthcare workers. Objectives To investigate the relationship between thinking styles and the knowledge and clinical practices of doctors directly involved in the management of acute coronary syndromes. Methods Self-reported doctors' thinking styles (N = 74) were correlated with results from a survey investigating knowledge, attitudes, and clinical practice, and evaluated against recently published acute coronary syndrome clinical guidelines. Results Guideline-discordant practice was associated with an experiential style of thinking. Conversely, guideline-concordant practice was associated with a higher preference for a rational style of reasoning. Conclusion Findings support that while guidelines might be necessary to communicate evidence, other strategies may be necessary to target discordant behaviours. Further research designed to examine the relationships found in the current study is required