American Kestrel Migration: Insights and Challenges from Tracking Individuals Across the Annual Cycle

Natural variation in migratory strategies across the range of the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius) creates a unique opportunity for comparative research of annual cycles. However, it can be logistically and technically challenging to track such a small but highly mobile species. We tagged American Kestrels with light-level geolocators or satellite transmitters with the aim of estimating migration timing and connectivity, and we monitored a subset of satellite-tagged individuals during the breeding season to assess transmitter function and wear. We recovered geolocators from six of 49 (12%) tagged individuals. One geolocator-tagged individual migrated approximately 1235 km from its Idaho breeding grounds to New Mexico near the Arizona border for the winter and returned to Idaho the following spring. The other five recaptured individuals remained near (\u3c 200 km) the breeding grounds year-round. The low reliability of recovery and low precision of locations suggested major limitations of using geolocators to track this species. Most satellite transmitters (18 of 22, 82%) failed prior to migration, but one satellite-tagged individual migrated approximately 5945 km from Canada to Nicaragua, and three others transmitted ≥1 location during migration. Transmitters stopped functioning while on live individuals despite showing no visible damage and maintaining adequate battery levels. These results suggest further testing and development are needed before these recently developed tags are deployed again on American Kestrels. Both individuals with complete migration tracks showed evidence of short distance (250–350 km) post-breeding movements to southern stopover sites where they stayed 1–3 mo before migrating onward. Although sample sizes were small, migration patterns were consistent with latitudinal leap-frog patterns described in previous studies and revealed an interesting pattern of a prolonged post-breeding stopover before longer migration. Further, the migration track from Canada to Nicaragua represents the longest recorded migration path for this species

Phenology Effects on Productivity and Hatching-Asynchrony of American Kestrels (\u3cem\u3eFalco sparverius\u3c/em\u3e) Across a Continent

Optimal reproductive performance occurs when birds time reproduction to coincide with peak food availability. Deviation from optimal timing, or mismatch, can affect productivity, though birds may mediate some mismatch effects by altering their incubation behavior. We studied the consequences of nesting timing (i.e., clutch initiation relative to an index of spring start) on productivity across the breeding range of American kestrels (Falco sparverius) in the United States and southern Canada, and associations between nesting timing, incubation behavior, and hatching asynchrony. We used observations from long-term nest box monitoring, remote trail cameras, and community-scientist-based programs to obtain data on clutch initiation, productivity, incubation, and hatching synchrony. Kestrels that initiated clutches after the extended spring index (SI-x, start of spring estimate) had higher rates of nest failure and fewer nestlings than earlier nesters, and effects of nesting timing on productivity were strongest in the Northeast. In contrast, kestrels in the Southwest experienced a more gradual decline in productivity across the season. Spatial effects may be the result of regional differences in growing seasons and temporal nesting windows (duration of nesting season). Specifically, resource availability in the Northeast was highly peaked during the breeding season, potentially resulting in shorter nesting windows. Conversely, resource curves were more prolonged in the Southwest, and growing seasons are becoming longer with climate change, potentially resulting in longer nesting windows. We found an inverse relationship between nesting timing and the onset of male incubation. Males from breeding pairs that initiated clutches after SI-x began incubation sooner than males from breeding pairs that initiated clutches before SI-x. Early-onset of male incubation was positively associated with hatching asynchrony, creating increased age variation in developing young. In sum, nesting phenology relative to the SI-x has consequences for American kestrels’ productivity, and these consequences vary across space. The early onset of incubation may act as a potential adaptive behavior to advance the average hatch date and spread out energetic demands. Given the effects of nesting timing on productivity, kestrels are likely to be sensitive to climate-driven advances in growing seasons and vulnerable to phenological mismatch, particularly in the Northeast

Socio-Ecological Interactions Promote Outbreaks of a Harmful Invasive Plant in an Urban Landscape

Urban landscapes often harbour organisms that harm people and threaten native biodiversity. These landscapes are characterized by differences in socioeconomic context, habitat suitability and patch connectedness. Identifying which spatial differences enable outbreaks of pests, pathogens and invasive species will improve targeted control efforts. We tested hypotheses to explain the distribution and demography of puncturevine Tribulus terrestris, a human-dispersed invasive plant in Boise, a city in the western United States. We hypothesized an increase in puncturevine infestations near low-valued properties with a high proportion of bare ground, the species\u27 preferred microhabitat, that are well connected on the urban road network. To test these hypotheses, we collected data on the abundance, emergence and persistence of reproductive plants in transects spanning \u3e100 km of our study city. We then used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the impacts of spatial covariates on puncturevine distribution and demography. Bare ground cover consistently increased abundance, emergence and persistence of puncturevine, indicating the overarching importance of suitable establishment sites for this invasive species. Property value had the strongest impact on puncturevine abundance and was the most important main effect in the model for puncturevine emergence. In both models, lower-valued properties had a higher risk of puncturevine occurrence. The effects of road network connectivity depended on bare ground cover, with the highest predicted abundance and emergence of puncturevine in patches with low connectivity on the road network and high bare ground cover. Understanding these relationships will require data that can disentangle seed dispersal from establishment limitations

Insights into the inner regions of the FU Orionis disc

Context. We investigate small-amplitude light variations in FU Ori occurring in timescales of days and weeks. Aims. We seek to determine the mechanisms that lead to these light changes. Methods. The visual light curve of FU Ori gathered by the MOST satellite continuously for 55 days in the 2013-2014 winter season and simultaneously obtained ground-based multi-colour data were compared with the results from a disc and star light synthesis model. Results. Hotspots on the star are not responsible for the majority of observed light variations. Instead, we found that the long periodic family of 10.5-11.4 d (presumably) quasi-periods showing light variations up to 0.07 mag may arise owing to the rotational revolution of disc inhomogeneities located between 16-20 solar radii. The same distance is obtained by assuming that these light variations arise because of a purely Keplerian revolution of these inhomogeneities for a stellar mass of 0.7 solar mass. The short-periodic (3-1.38 d) small amplitude (0.01 mag) light variations show a clear sign of period shortening, similar to what was discovered in the first MOST observations of FU Ori. Our data indicate that these short-periodic oscillations may arise because of changing visibility of plasma tongues (not included in our model), revolving in the magnetospheric gap and/or likely related hotspots as well. Conclusions. Results obtained for the long-periodic 10-11 d family of light variations appear to be roughly in line with the colour-period relation, which assumes that longer periods are produced by more external and cooler parts of the disc. Coordinated observations in a broad spectral range are still necessary to fully understand the nature of the short-periodic 1-3 d family of light variations and their period changes.Comment: Accepted to A&

Predicting Avian Breeding Phenology at a Continental Scale

The timing of avian life-history events are shifting in response to rapid global change, with many bird species advancing their egg-laying dates. However, the factors that drive the timing of reproduction, and how these relationships might vary across species’ ranges, are not well understood. Using nest data collected by citizens and professional scientists across the continental US, we related the timing of egg-laying in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) to several environmental factors (e.g., elevation, winter/spring temperatures and precipitation, and vegetation phenology). We used a Bayesian framework (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation) to fit models of kestrel laydate that included the effects of spatial autocorrelation, which if unaccounted for can lead to an underestimation or incorrect inference for the parameters of interest. We found that kestrel laydates were correlated with each other within a range of ~500 km, and that laydates were positively related to start-of-spring date. Results from this analysis can be used to predict American kestrel laydates across the US, and to forecast the impacts of future climate change scenarios on kestrel breeding phenology

Intra-Specific Variation in Migration Phenology of American Kestrels (\u3ci\u3eFalco sparverius\u3c/i\u3e) in Response to Spring Temperatures

In migratory birds, among- and within-species heterogeneity in response to climate change may be attributed to differences in migration distance and environmental cues that affect timing of arrival at breeding grounds. We used eBird observations and a within-species comparative approach to examine whether migration distance (with latitude as a proxy) and weather predictors can explain spring arrival dates at the breeding site in a raptor species with a widespread distribution and diverse migration strategies, the American Kestrel Falco sparverius. We found an interactive effect between latitude and spring minimum temperatures on arrival dates, whereby at lower latitudes (short-distance migrants) American Kestrels arrived earlier in warmer springs and later in colder springs, but American Kestrels at higher latitudes (long-distance migrants) showed no association between arrival time and spring temperatures. Increased snow cover delayed arrival at all latitudes. Our results support the hypothesis that short-distance migrants are better able to respond to conditions on the breeding ground than are long-distance migrants, suggesting that long-distance migrants may be more vulnerable to shifts in spring conditions that could lead to phenological mismatch between peak resources and nesting

Dataset for Estimating eBird Arrival Dates and Temperature Anomalies for American Kestrels

In migratory birds, among- and within-species heterogeneity in response to climate change may be attributed to differences in migration distance and, consequently, environmental cues that affect timing of arrival at breeding grounds. We used eBird observations and a within-species comparative approach to examine whether migration distance (with latitude as a proxy) and climate explain spring arrival dates in a raptor species with a widespread distribution and diverse migration strategies, the American Kestrel Falco sparverius. We found an interactive effect between latitude and spring minimum temperatures on arrival dates, where at lower latitudes (short-distance migrants) kestrels arrived earlier in warmer springs and later in colder springs, but kestrels at higher latitudes (long-distance migrants) showed no association between arrival timing and spring temperatures. Increased snow water equivalent delayed arrival at all latitudes. Results support the hypothesis that short-distance migrants are better able to respond to conditions on the breeding ground than long-distance migrants, suggesting that long-distance migrants may be more vulnerable to shifts in spring conditions that could lead to phenological mismatch

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research