Magnetospheric Cavity Modes Driven by Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Fluctuations

We present results from Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global, three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. We use these simulations to investigate the role that solar wind dynamic pressure fluctuations play in the generation of magnetospheric ultra-low frequency (ULF) pulsations. The simulations presented in this study are driven with idealized solar wind input conditions. In four of the simulations, we introduce monochromatic ULF fluctuations in the upstream solar wind dynamic pressure. In the fifth simulation, we introduce a continuum of ULF frequencies in the upstream solar wind dynamic pressure fluctuations. In this numerical experiment, the idealized nature of the solar wind driving conditions allows us to study the magnetospheric response to only a fluctuating upstream dynamic pressure, while holding all other solar wind driving parameters constant. The simulation results suggest that ULF fluctuations in the solar wind dynamic pressure can drive magnetospheric ULF pulsations in the electric and magnetic fields on the dayside. Moreover, the simulation results suggest that when the driving frequency of the solar wind dynamic pressure fluctuations matches one of the natural frequencies of the magnetosphere, magnetospheric cavity modes can be energized.Comment: 2 figure

An event study to provide validation of TING and CMIT geomagnetic middle-latitude electron densities at the F2 peak

[1] The coupled thermosphere-ionosphere magnetosphere (CMIT) model and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Nested Grid (TING) model have been run to simulate the 15 May 1997 interplanetary coronal mass ejection\u27s (ICME) effects on the Earth\u27s ionosphere and thermosphere. Comparisons were made between these model runs, the IRI-2007 model, and geomagnetic middle-latitude ionosonde data (NmF2) from the World Data Center to determine how well the models simulated the event and to understand the causes of model-data disagreement. The following conclusions were drawn from this study: (1) skill scores were more often negative than positive on average; (2) the best and the worst skill scores occurred on the recovery day; (3) the line plots comparing models to data look better than the skill scores might suggest; (4) skill scores are significantly affected by timing issues and large, short-duration variability; (5) skill scores give an indication of the relative ability of one model relative to another, rather than an absolute statement of model accuracy; (6) the models capture negative storm effects better than they capture positive storm effects; (7) the TING model captured many short duration features seen in the data at high middle latitude stations that result from changes in the size of the auroral oval; (8) CMIT overestimates the energy driving changes in NmF2, whereas TING provides approximately the correct energy input as a result of the saturation effects on potential that are included in TING; and (9) both TING and CMIT electron densities decreased too rapidly after sunset

Predicting magnetopause crossings at geosynchronous orbit during the Halloween storms

[1] In late October and early November of 2003, the Sun unleashed a powerful series of events known as the Halloween storms. The coronal mass ejections launched by the Sun produced several severe compressions of the magnetosphere that moved the magnetopause inside of geosynchronous orbit. Such events are of interest to satellite operators, and the ability to predict magnetopause crossings along a given orbit is an important space weather capability. In this paper we compare geosynchronous observations of magnetopause crossings during the Halloween storms to crossings determined from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the magnetosphere as well to predictions of several empirical models of the magnetopause position. We calculate basic statistical information about the predictions as well as several standard skill scores. We find that the current Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry simulation of the storm provides a slightly better prediction of the magnetopause position than the empirical models we examined for the extreme conditions present in this study. While this is not surprising, given that conditions during the Halloween storms were well outside the parameter space of the empirical models, it does point out the need for physics-based models that can predict the effects of the most extreme events that are of significant interest to users of space weather forecasts

Magnetic Flux Circulation During Dawn-Dusk Oriented Interplanetary Magnetic Field

Magnetic flux circulation is a primary mode of energy transfer from the solar wind into the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere. For southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), magnetic flux circulation is described by the Dungey cycle (dayside merging, night side reconnection, and magnetospheric convection), and both the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere receive energy. For dawn-dusk oriented IMF, magnetic flux circulation is not well understood, and the inner magnetosphere does not receive energy. Several models have been suggested for possible reconnection patterns; the general pattern is: dayside merging; reconnection on the dayside or along the dawn/dusk regions; and, return flow on dayside only. These models are consistent with the lack of energy in the inner magnetosphere. We will present evidence that the Dungey cycle does not explain the energy transfer during dawn-dusk oriented IMF. We will also present evidence of how magnetic flux does circulate during dawn-dusk oriented IMF, specifically how the magnetic flux reconnects and circulates back

Propagation of Pi2 pulsations through the braking region in global MHD simulations

We investigate the propagation of Pi2 period pulsations from their origin in the plasma sheet through the braking region, the region where the fast flows are slowed as they approach the inner edge of the plasma sheet. Our approach is to use both the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and Lyonâ Fedderâ Mobarry (LFM) global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computer codes to simulate the Earth’s magnetosphere during a substorm that occurred on 14 September 2004 when Pi2 pulsations were observed. We use two different MHD models in order to test the robustness of our conclusions about Pi2. The simulations are then compared with groundâ based and satellite data. We find that the propagation of the pulsations in the simulations, especially through the braking region, depends strongly on the ionospheric models used at the inner boundary of the MHD models. With respect to typical observed values, the modeled conductances are high in the UCLA model and low in the LFM model. The different conductances affect the flows, producing stronger line tying that slows the flow in the braking region more in the UCLA model than in the LFM model. Therefore, perturbations are able to propagate much more freely into the inner magnetosphere in the LFM results. However, in both models Pi2 period perturbations travel with the dipolarization front (DF) that forms at the earthward edge of the flow channel, but as the DF slows in the braking region, â 8â ¤xâ ¤â 6 RE, the Pi2 period perturbations begin to travel ahead of it into the inner magnetosphere. This indicates that the flow channels generate compressional waves with periods that fall within the Pi2 range and that, as the flows themselves are stopped in the braking region, the compressional wave continues to propagate into the inner magnetosphere.Key PointsPi2 travel with DFs until the DFs slow in the braking region and the Pi2 begin to run ahead of themIonospheric parameters strongly affect how Pi2 are able to propagateBoth the UCLA and LFM models show similar results for Pi2 propagation outside of â ¼â 7 REPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134917/1/jgra52317_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134917/2/jgra52317.pd

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models

Community‐wide validation of geospace model ground magnetic field perturbation predictions to support model transition to operations

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/98787/1/swe20056.pd

Community‐wide validation of geospace model local K‐index predictions to support model transition to operations

We present the latest result of a community‐wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC’s effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K‐index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high‐latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event‐by‐event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high‐latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.Key PointsReport community‐wide model validation resultsEvaluate ability of models to predict a local index of magnetic perturbationAnalysis directly led to selection of models to transition to operations at NOAA/SWPCPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134170/1/swe20333-sup-0001-supplementary.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134170/2/swe20333_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134170/3/swe20333.pd