Diffusion Approximations for Demographic Inference: DaDi

Models of demographic history (population sizes, migration rates, and divergence times) inferred from genetic data complement archeology and serve as null models in genome scans for selection. Most current inference methods are computationally limited to considering simple models or non-recombining data. We introduce a method based on a diffusion approximation to the joint frequency spectrum of genetic variation between populations. Our implementation, DaDi, can model up to three interacting populations and scales well to genome-wide data. We have applied DaDi to human data from Africa, Europe, and East Asia, building the most complex statistically well-characterized model of human migration out of Africa to date

Cyclical tests of selected space shuttle TPS metallic materials in a plasma arc tunnel Volume 1: Description of tests and program summary

Work, concerned with cyclical thermal evaluation of selected space shuttle thermal protection system (TPS) metallic materials in a hypervelocity oxidizing atmosphere that approximated an actual entry environment, is presented. A total of 325 sample test hours were conducted on 21 super-alloy metallic samples at temperatures from 1800 to 2200 F (1256 to 1478 K) without any failures. The 4 x 4 in. (10.2 x 10.2 cm) samples were fabricated from five nickel base alloys and one cobalt base alloy. Eighteen of the samples were cycled 100 times each and the other three samples 50 times each in a test stream emanating from an 8 in. (20.3 cm) diam exit, Mach 4.6, conical nozzle. The test cycle consisted of a 10 min heat pulse to a controlled temperature followed by a 10 min cooldown period. The TD-NiCrAl and TD-NiAlY materials showed the least change in weight, thickness, and physical appearance even though they were subjected to the highest temperature environment

Cyclical Tests of Selected Space Shuttle TPS Metallic Materials in a Plasma Arc Tunnel. Volume 2: Appendices - Data Tabulation

Calibration data are presented for heat flux and pressure profiles, model temperature histories, and model weight and thickness changes

Stellar Activity and its Implications for Exoplanet Detection on GJ 176

We present an in-depth analysis of stellar activity and its effects on radial velocity (RV) for the M2 dwarf GJ 176 based on spectra taken over 10 years from the High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope. These data are supplemented with spectra from previous observations with the HIRES and HARPS spectrographs, and V- and R-band photometry taken over 6 years at the Dyer and Fairborn observatories. Previous studies of GJ 176 revealed a super-Earth exoplanet in an 8.8-day orbit. However, the velocities of this star are also known to be contaminated by activity, particularly at the 39-day stellar rotation period. We have examined the magnetic activity of GJ 176 using the sodium I D lines, which have been shown to be a sensitive activity tracer in cool stars. In addition to rotational modulation, we see evidence of a long-term trend in our Na I D index, which may be part of a long-period activity cycle. The sodium index is well correlated with our RVs, and we show that this activity trend drives a corresponding slope in RV. Interestingly, the rotation signal remains in phase in photometry, but not in the spectral activity indicators. We interpret this phenomenon as the result of one or more large spot complexes or active regions which dominate the photometric variability, while the spectral indices are driven by the overall magnetic activity across the stellar surface. In light of these results, we discuss the potential for correcting activity signals in the RVs of M dwarfs.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Emulating computer models with step-discontinuous outputs using Gaussian processes

In many real-world applications, we are interested in approximating functions that are analytically unknown. An emulator provides a "fast" approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of evaluations. Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace emulators due to their properties such as the ability to quantify uncertainty. GPs are essentially developed to emulate smooth, continuous functions. However, the assumptions of continuity and smoothness is unwarranted in many situations. For example, in computer models where bifurcation, tipping points occur in their systems of equations, the outputs can be discontinuous. This paper examines the capacity of GPs for emulating step-discontinuous functions using two approaches. The first approach is based on choosing covariance functions/kernels, namely neural network and Gibbs, that are most appropriate for modelling discontinuities. The predictive performance of these two kernels is illustrated using several examples. The results show that they have superior performance to standard covariance functions, such as the Mat\'ern family, in capturing sharp jumps. The second approach is to transform the input space such that in the new space a GP with a standard kernel is able to predict the function well. A parametric transformation function is used whose parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Non-Gaussian Radio-Wave Scattering in the Interstellar Medium

It was recently suggested by Boldyrev & Gwinn that the characteristics of radio scintillations from distant pulsars are best understood if the interstellar electron-density fluctuations that cause the time broadening of the radio pulses obey non-Gaussian statistics. In this picture the density fluctuations are inferred to be strong on very small scales ($\sim 10^8-10^{10} {cm}$). We argue that such density structures could correspond to the ionized boundaries of molecular regions (clouds) and demonstrate that the power-law distribution of scattering angles that is required to match the observations arises naturally from the expected intersections of our line of sight with randomly distributed, thin, approximately spherical ionized shells of this type. We show that the observed change in the time-broadening behavior for pulsar dispersion measures $\lesssim 30 {\rm pc} {\rm cm}^{-3}$ is consistent with the expected effect of the general ISM turbulence, which should dominate the scattering for nearby pulsars. We also point out that if the clouds are ionized by nearby stars, then their boundaries may become turbulent on account of an ionization front instability. This turbulence could be an alternative cause of the inferred density structures. An additional effect that might contribute to the strength of the small-scale fluctuations in this case is the expected flattening of the turbulent density spectrum when the eddy sizes approach the proton gyroscale.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, accepted to Ap

Planetary systems around close binary stars: the case of the very dusty, Sun-like, spectroscopic binary BD+20 307

Field star BD+20 307 is the dustiest known main sequence star, based on the fraction of its bolometric luminosity, 4%, that is emitted at infrared wavelengths. The particles that carry this large IR luminosity are unusually warm, comparable to the temperature of the zodiacal dust in the solar system, and their existence is likely to be a consequence of a fairly recent collision of large objects such as planets or planetary embryos. Thus, the age of BD+20 307 is potentially of interest in constraining the era of terrestrial planet formation. The present project was initiated with an attempt to derive this age using the Chandra X-ray Observatory to measure the X-ray flux of BD+20 307 in conjunction with extensive photometric and spectroscopic monitoring observations from Fairborn Observatory. However, the recent realization that BD+20 307 is a short period, double-line, spectroscopic binary whose components have very different lithium abundances, vitiates standard methods of age determination. We find the system to be metal-poor; this, combined with its measured lithium abundances, indicates that BD+20 307 may be several to many Gyr old. BD+20 307 affords astronomy a rare peek into a mature planetary system in orbit around a close binary star (because such systems are not amenable to study by the precision radial velocity technique).Comment: accepted for ApJ, December 10, 200

In order to increase competition in U.S. House races, states should look to extra-legislative bodies to redraw congressional boundaries

Politicians and pundits alike regularly bemoan the lack of electoral competition in congressional races as incumbent reelection rates frequently soar to over 90 percent. Redistricting and gerrymandering are often blamed as a way to lock members into their seats for at least a decade. Jamie L. Carson, Michael H. Crespin and Ryan D. Williamson ask if there are ways to inject more competition into elections during the mandated redistricting cycles. Based on an analysis of redistricting cycles from 1972 to 2012, they show that commission and court-drawn districts experience marginally more competition than those drawn by state legislatures. These results provide additional support for the argument that one way to increase the competitiveness of congressional elections is to allow extra-legislative bodies to draw congressional district boundaries