A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit via Shuttle Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982-86 joint NASA-USAF Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57deg inclined orbit: 9,545 lb vs. 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a one hour window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer vs. 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three vs. two burn transfer (12 vs. 11/4 hrs), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs

Olefin strain energy as a predictor of isolability

Data collection contains:Determination of the olefin stratin energy ranges corresponding to isolable, observable and unstable alkenes with contemporary forcefields - Bridgehead alkenes used to determine the olefin strain energy ranges corresponding to isolable, observable, and unstable  alkenes;Forcefield energies of alkenes S1-S25 and alkanes S1H2-S25H2;Olefin strain energies of alkenes S1-S25;Olefin strain energies of alkenes S1-S25 computed with different forcefields;Olefin strain energies of alkenes S1-S19 computed with different force fields, plotted against MM1 OS energy;Olefin strain energy calculations for natural products -Forcefield energies or bridgehead alkene natural products or putative bridgehead alkene natural products, and the  corresponding alkanes;Olefin strain energies of bridgehead alkene natural products or putative alkene natural products;OPLS_2005 Optimized geometries;Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations -DFT calculations on NP's giving a measure of the amount of strain energy not captured by the forcefield;B3LYP-D3 optimized geometries and associated energies;A small set of alkenes for rapid estimation of OS cutoffs for other forcefield

ADDJUST-A View of the First 25 Years

Various technologies and innovative launch operations were developed during the 50 years of the Centaur upper stagethe first launch vehicle to use high performing liquid hydrogen fuel. One innovation was ADDJUST, which enabled the successful negotiation of upper level winds measured only hours before launch. Initial causes for its creation, development, and operation during countdown are detailed. Problem definition, wind measuring/monitoring process, pitch and yaw steering coefficient generation, loads analysis, angle of attack, major risks/concerns, and anecdotal recollections are provided. Launch availability improved from as low as 55 to 95 percent due to ADDJUST, which is still in use

DUKSUP: A Computer Program for High Thrust Launch Vehicle Trajectory Design and Optimization

From the late 1960s through 1997, the leadership of NASAs Intermediate and Large class unmanned expendable launch vehicle projects resided at the NASA Lewis (now Glenn) Research Center (LeRC). One of LeRCs primary responsibilities --- trajectory design and performance analysis --- was accomplished by an internally-developed analytic three dimensional computer program called DUKSUP. Because of its Calculus of Variations-based optimization routine, this code was generally more capable of finding optimal solutions than its contemporaries. A derivation of optimal control using the Calculus of Variations is summarized including transversality, intermediate, and final conditions. The two point boundary value problem is explained. A brief summary of the codes operation is provided, including iteration via the Newton-Raphson scheme and integration of variational and motion equations via a 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme. Main subroutines are discussed. The history of the LeRC trajectory design efforts in the early 1960s is explained within the context of supporting the Centaur upper stage program. How the code was constructed based on the operation of the AtlasCentaur launch vehicle, the limits of the computers of that era, the limits of the computer programming languages, and the missions it supported are discussed. The vehicles DUKSUP supported (AtlasCentaur, TitanCentaur, and ShuttleCentaur) are briefly described. The types of missions, including Earth orbital and interplanetary, are described. The roles of flight constraints and their impact on launch operations are detailed (such as jettisoning hardware on heating, Range Safety, ground station tracking, and elliptical parking orbits). The computer main frames on which the code was hosted are described. The applications of the code are detailed, including independent check of contractor analysis, benchmarking, leading edge analysis, and vehicle performance improvement assessments. Several of DUKSUPs many major impacts on launches are discussed including Intelsat, Voyager, Pioneer Venus, HEAO, Galileo, and Cassini

High School Size, Achievement Equity, and Cost

The past decade has occasioned a dramatic increase in research on relationships between school size and a variety of outcomes, including measured achievement, high school completion rates, and postsecondary enrollment rates. An interesting interaction effect which has been found in replications across seven very different states is that as school size increases, the "achievement test score costs" associated with the proportion of economically disadvantaged students enrolled in a school also increase. In short, as schools get larger, average achievement among schools enrolling larger proportions of low socioeconomic-status students suffers. A traditional argument against smaller schools, however, is that they are simpl

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit Via Shuttle_Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982 to 1986 joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-United States Air Force (USAF) Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37 deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57 deg inclined orbit: 9,545 versus 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight, respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a 1 hr window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer versus 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three versus two burn transfer (12 vs. 1-1/4 hr), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs