An Evolutionary Game Theory Explanation of ARCH Effects

While ARCH/GARCH equations have been widely used to model financial market data, formal explanations for the sources of conditional volatility are scarce. This paper presents a model with the property that standard econometric tests detect ARCH/GARCH effects similar to those found in asset returns. We use evolutionary game theory to describe how agents endogenously switch among different forecasting strategies. The agents evaluate past forecast errors in the context of an optimizing model of asset pricing given heterogeneous agents. We show that the prospects for divergent expectations depend on the relative variances of fundamental and extraneous variables and on how aggressively agents are pursuing the optimal forecast. Divergent expectations are the driving force leading to the appearance of ARCH/GARCH in the data. JEL Classification: C22, C73, G12, D84 Keywords:ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, evolutionary game theory, rational expectations

Participant Motivations for Joining an Extension Program

We asked participants of Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, and Atlantic Coast restoration-focused oyster gardening programs (OGPs) about motivations for joining an OGP and engaging in an activity in general at the gardening site before and after joining an OGP. Regarding motivations to join an OGP, environmental improvement was a stronger motivation than opportunity to learn or fishing improvement, both of which were generally greater than social motivations. Additionally, OGP participation was not significant in changing motivations for engaging in an activity in general at the gardening site, suggesting that a focus on initial motivators for engaging in an associated activity may be key to Extension program volunteer recruiting and retention efforts

Performance of Two Boron-Modified S-816 Alloys in a Turbojet Engine Operated at 1650 F

S-816+B and modified S-816+B cast cobalt-base alloys were evaluated as turbine-bucket materials at 16500 F. Stress-rupture and tensile data obtained from these alloys had indicated satisfactory strength for engine operation at 1650 F. Although both alloys exhibited a limited ductility in room-temperature laboratory impact tests, there was a significant increase in impact resistance in the 1650 F tests. Bucket failures began after 10 hours of engine testing and continued at various intervals during the 107.5-hour test. Bucket lives were short relative to the predicted lives based on stress-rupture considerations (280 hr for S-816+B and 1750 hr for modified S-816+B). No significant difference was apparent in the performance of the two alloy groups. The primary cause of bucket failures in both alloys was mechanical fatigue. Impact damage occurred as a direct result of bucket tip fatigue failures and was a secondary cause of bucket failures. The impact of small pieces of fractured bucket tips on surrounding buckets caused a relatively large amount of impact damage to buckets of both alloys. The amount of impact damage from induced fractures at the bucket midspan, which provided relatively large failed fragments, was no greater than that which occurred as a result of tip failures

Internally damped, self-arresting vertical drop-weight impact test apparatus

A vertical dropped-weight impact test machine has a dropped-weight barrel vertically supported on upper and lower support brackets. The dropped-weight barrel is chambered to receive a dropped-weight assembly having a latch pin at its upper end, a damping unit in the middle, and a tup at its lower end. The tup is adapted for gathering data during impact testing. The latch pin releasably engages a latch pin coupling assembly. The latch pin coupling assembly is attached to a winch via a halyard for raising and lowering the dropped-weight assembly. The lower end of the dropped-weight barrel is provided with a bounce-back arresting mechanism which is activated by the descending passage of the dropped-weight assembly. After striking the specimen, the dropped-weight assembly rebounds vertically and is caught by the bounce-back arresting mechanism. The damping unit of the dropped-weight assembly serves to dissipate energy from the rebounding dropped-weight assembly and prevents the dropped-weight assembly from rebounding from the self-arresting mechanism

Internally damped, self-arresting vertical drop-weight apparatus

A vertical dropped-weight impact test machine has a dropped-weight barrel vertically supported on upper and lower support brackets. The dropped-weight barrel is chambered to receive a dropped-weight assembly having a latch pin at its upper end, a damping unit in the middle, and a tup at its lower end. The tup is adapted for gathering data during impact testing. The latch pin releasably engages a latch pin coupling assembly. The latch pin coupling assembly is attached to a winch via a halyard for raising and lowering the dropped-weight assembly. The lower end of the dropped-weight barrel is provided with a bounce-back arresting mechanism which is activated by the descending passage of the dropped-weight assembly. After striking the specimen, the dropped-weight assembly rebounds vertically and is caught by the bounce-back arresting mechanism. The damping unit of the dropped-weight assembly serves to dissipate energy from the rebounding dropped-weight assembly and prevents the dropped-weight assembly from rebounding from the self-arresting mechanism

Increased TNF-α/IFN-γ/IL-2 and Decreased TNF-α/IFN-γ Production by Central Memory T Cells Are Associated with Protective Responses against Bovine Tuberculosis Following BCG Vaccination

Central memory T cells (Tcm) and polyfunctional CD4 T cell responses contribute to vaccine-elicited protection with both human and bovine tuberculosis (TB); however, their combined role in protective immunity to TB is unclear. To address this question, we evaluated polyfunctional cytokine responses by CD4 T cell effector / memory populations from bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccinated and non-vaccinated calves prior to and after aerosol challenge with virulent Mycobacterium bovis. Polyfunctional cytokine expression patterns in the response by Tcm, effector memory, and effector T cell subsets were similar between BCG-vaccinated and M. bovis-infected calves; only differing in magnitude (i.e., infected > vaccinated). BCG vaccination, however, did alter the kinetics of the ensuing response to virulent M. bovis infection. Early after challenge (three weeks post-infection), non-vaccinates had greater antigen-specific IFN-γ/TNF-α and lesser IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-2 responses by Tcm cells than did vaccinated animals. Importantly, these differences were also associated with mycobacterial burden upon necropsy. Polyfunctional responses to ESAT-6:CFP10 (antigens not synthesized by BCG strains) were detected in memory subsets, as well as in effector cells, as early as three weeks after challenge. These findings suggest that cell fate divergence may occur early after antigen priming in the response to bovine TB and that memory and effector T cells may expand concurrently during the initial phase of the immune response. In summary, robust IFN-γ/TNF-α response by Tcm cells is associated with greater mycobacterial burden while IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-2 response by Tcm cells are indicative of a protective response to bovine TB