New results on the impact of central-bank intervention on deviations from uncovered interest parity

Germany, Japan, and the United States continue to view foreign exchange intervention as an effective instrument, although the mechanism through which it operates is unclear. In this paper, we use official data on daily dollar intervention to examine its impact on exchange-rate risk premia through both the portfolio-balance and expectations channels. We define the risk premium in terms of deviation from uncovered interest parity and model its behavior using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Our evidence of portfolio-balance and expectations effects is inconsistent across subperiods of different exchange-rate-policy regimes. Also, unlike Dominguez (1990) and Loopesko (1984), we find no evidence that coordination of intervention improves its efficacy.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation

Foreign exchange and the liquidity trap

When short-term interest rates hover near zero, central banks may have difficulty offsetting downward momentum on prices and economic activity through traditional monetary-policy channels, since commercial banks have little incentive to make loans. Economists refer to this situation as a liquidity trap. Do exchange rate targets and foreign exchange operations, as some have suggested, offer a way to escape such a trap?Foreign exchange ; Liquidity (Economics) ; Economic conditions - Japan

Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 1996

U.S. commercial banks had another very good year in 1996. Profits posted strong growth, preserving the high levels of return on equity and return on assets that have prevailed over the past four years. Helping to boost profits were continued strong growth of interest-earning assets, a slight widening of the net interest margin, significant gains in noninterest income, and continued containment of noninterest expenses. Return on assets edged up despite a slight increase in provisioning for loan and lease losses relative to assets. Delinquency and charge-off rates stayed low for business loans but climbed throughout the year for consumer loans.Bank assets ; Banks and banking

Why intervention rarely works

Foreign-exchange-market intervention is generally ineffective when undertaken independent of monetary policy. But when undertaken as a goal of monetary policy, exchange-rate management can compromise price stability. This Economic Commentary explains the difficulties of implementing an intervention policy.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation ; Monetary policy

On Einstein Algebras and Relativistic Spacetimes

In this paper, we examine the relationship between general relativity and the theory of Einstein algebras. We show that according to a formal criterion for theoretical equivalence recently proposed by Halvorson (2012, 2015) and Weatherall (2015), the two are equivalent theories.Comment: 20 page

Discourses of Neo-Liberalisation in New Zealand: From the ‘Managed Economy’ to the ‘Mum and Dad Investor’, Prime Ministers’ Speeches of 1987-2011 (a Critical Discourse Analysis)

In this project I aim to challenge the conception of neo-liberalism as a monolithic ideology and theory of state practice. To achieve this, I use Norman Fairclough’s ‘order of discourse’ model of critical discourse analysis to examine seven speeches delivered by New Zealand Prime Ministers of 1987 to 2011. Using these speeches I chart a number of breaks, shifts, contradictions, and instabilities between both Prime Ministers and Governments, which are often specific to New Zealand. The analyses of the seven speeches highlight the contradictions and tensions inherent in on-going processes of neo-liberalisation in New Zealand. Among other instabilities and contradictions, I examine David Lange’s conflicting articulations of economic management in market-led governing. I note the role of technocracy under Geoffrey Palmer, and the inconsistencies in his push to institutionalise the Treaty of Waitangi while decentralising the role of the state in governing. I outline the specificities of New Zealand as a colonial settler society through the signifier “battler” deployed by Mike Moore. I also sketch the functions of Jim Bolger’s communitarianism, and the way it flanks the market logics deployed by Minister of Finance Ruth Richardson, between 1990 and 1993. The effect and significance of Jenny Shipley’s ‘Code of Social and Family Responsibility’ is examined, noting the way it crystallises the role of social capital in practices of governing. The impact of Helen Clark’s Third Way and ‘inclusive’ neo-liberalism are then charted. Clark’s use of diverse ideological forms suggests a mobile and mediating moment in neo-liberalism, which attempts to overcome some of the problems generated by earlier speakers. I finally cover the way that John Key’s anti-ideological position results in what is labelled the ‘market ideology’, crystallising market logic as a rubric for governing through terms like the “mum and dad investor”, and the “kiwi”. I then offer some concluding comments and note the project’s limitations, before offering some tentative prospects of neo-liberalism’s fortune in a post-2008 crisis world

C-reactive protein as an outcome predictor for maintenance hemodialysis patients

C-reactive protein as an outcome predictor for maintenance hemodialysis patients.BackgroundThe possible association between inflammatory processes and other outcome measures in ESRD patients led us to measure the blood C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration in a large sample of hemodialysis patients, and to evaluate its statistical relationship with other common laboratory measures and patient survival. This was performed in a prospective, observational analysis with mortality as the principal outcome measure.MethodsOne thousand fifty-four routine blood samples, collected from as many patients during June and July 1995 (one sample per patient), were randomly selected for measurement of CRP, prealbumin, and other routine laboratory measures. Six months after the initial blood tests, patient survival was determined. Logistic regression analysis was the primary statistical tool used to evaluate laboratory associations with odds of death. Bivariate regression and correlation analyses were performed using all available data.ResultsThe distribution of CRP values was skewed; approximately 35% of the values exceeded the upper limit of the laboratory's reference range. Serum albumin and prealbumin concentrations both correlated with the serum creatinine concentration (r = 0.378 and r = 0.347, respectively; P's < 0.001), and were inversely associated with the CRP (r = -0.254 and r = -0.354, respectively; P's <0.001). CRP was also inversely associated with blood hemoglobin concentrations (r = -0.235; P < 0.001). Using multiple regression analysis to further explore these relationships, the serum creatinine concentration was inversely associated with CRP (r = -0.140; P < 0.001). However, after adjustment for the linkage of the serum creatinine with the serum albumin concentration (r = -0.378; P < 0.001), no relationship with creatinine was observed. Before and after adjustment for serum albumin and prealbumin concentration, the ferritin concentration correlated directly with CRP (r = 0.148; P < 0.001). Ferritin was inversely and highly correlated with total iron binding capacity (r = -0.516; P < 0.001). Independent associations of hemoglobin with albumin (t = 7.16; P < 0.001), prealbumin (t = 2.39; P = 0.017), and CRP (t = -4.27; P < 0.001) were observed. Also, the dose of erythropoietin was directly associated with the CRP concentration, before (r = 0.081, P = 0.009) and after (t = 2.03, P = 0.042) adjustment for the serum albumin and iron concentrations. CRP correlated directly with neutrophil (r = 0.318; P < 0.001) and platelet counts (r = 0.180; P < 0.001), but was weakly and inversely correlated with the lymphocyte count (r = -0.071; P = 0.04). A logistic regression analysis performed using the laboratory variables revealed a strong, independent, and inverse relationships between the serum albumin and creatinine concentrations, total lymphocyte count, and the odds risk of death. In this model, no significant relationship was observed between the odds risk of death and CRP.ConclusionsThe data presented herein suggest that: (1) strong predictable associations exist among laboratory proxies for malnutrition, anemia, and the acute phase reaction, and (2) the pathobiology implied by these laboratory abnormalities influence patients’ mortal risk primarily through depletion of vital body proteins, not inflammation

Performance characteristics of an HPLC method for Urinary Albumin

PosterMicroalbuminuria is a marker of early diabetic nephropathy and cardiovascular risk. Immunoassays for urinary albumin can underestimate the amount of intact albumin present in urine. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a new urinary albumin assay that employs size exclusion HPLC with UV detection to quantify urinary albumin. We determined the limit of detection (LOD), linearity, imprecision, comparison to an immunoturbidimetric assay (ITA), and pediatric and adult reference intervals on random urine collections. The HPLC assay for total urinary albumin shows acceptable performance and quantifies albumin species not detected by immunoassay. Our studies of apparently healthy children and adults suggest the need for separate male and female and pediatric and adult reference intervals. Further outcome studies are necessary to determine how to best interpret urinary albumin measurements made by HPLC