The Spatial Reproductive Value and the Spatial Momentum of Zero Population Growth

This paper develops the concept of spatial reproductive value and illustrates how such a notion may be used to trace out quantitatively the geographical impacts of a sudden reduction in fertility to bare replacement level. Such a reduction does not immediately produce zero population growth in populations that previously experienced high birth rates. The built-in momentum for continued growth and its spatial dimension may be assessed with the aid of spatial reproductive values

More Computer Programs for Spatial Demographic Analysis

This report presents the algorithms and lists the FORTRAN IV codes of computer programs for the analysis of multiregional population systems. It is a continuation of the IIASA report RM-76-58. The following topics are included: mobility and fertility analyses of life table and stable populations; methodology and applications of the spatial reproductive value; and the study of the spatial demographic impacts of fertility reduced to replacement level. This report focuses on the interpretation of the output of the computer programs

Normative Modelling in Demo-Economics

This report is an expository state-of-the-art review of several fundamental themes in two related but largely unconnected bodies of literature. The focus is on recent attempts to design comprehensive dynamic demo-economic policy models that are formally stated as optimal control problems. Two groups of models are distinguished: planning-oriented models, which originated in systems engineering and economics and which are designed to aid practical problem solving; and theoretically-oriented models, which have been developed in economic growth theory and which are intended to provide theoretical insights into the dynamics of economic systems. The formalisms of both are shown to have natural applications in demography

De informatiewaarde van het Belgische auditrapport onder de loep. evolutie vanaf vier jaar vóór faling

In een omgeving met weinig rechtsvervolgingen, zoals België, blijkt het verslag van de commissaris tot 3 jaar vóór falen een adequaat signaal te zijn voor het voorspellen van de kans op faillissement. De commissaris gebruikt de aard van het verslag als signaal. Eerst drukt zij haar bezorgdheid uit aan de hand van een verslag met voorbehoud voor de waarderingsregels (GAAP). Naarmate het faillissement nadert en de problemen acuter worden, schakelt zij over naar een verslag met opmerkingen over de continuïteit eventueel aangevuld met voorbehoud voor de waarderingsregels.

Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study

In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its 17 member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by a national scholar using techniques of multiregional demography. This paper describes the organization of the study, discusses the data bases used, evaluates the main results obtained, and reviews some of the methodological research that has been generated by the study. Among the conclusions of the paper are recommendations for researchers wishing to carry out a multiregional demographic analysis

Entropy, Multiproportional, and Quadratic Techniques for Inferring Detailed Migration Patterns from Aggregate Data

This paper presents techniques for inferring migration flows by migrant category from some available aggregate data. The data are in the form of marginal totals of migration flow matrices or prior information on certain cell values. A generalized estimation procedure is presented which incorporates both maximum likelihood and x^2 estimates. The duality results of the optimizing problems rely on the decomposition principle of Rockafellar. We prove the convergence of the general iterative procedure of which the well-known RAS and entropy methods are special cases. The validity of the methods is tested by comparison of estimates and observations for Austria and Sweden, using x^2 and absolute percentage deviation test statistics. The techniques are then applied to infer age-specific migration flows for Bulgaria. Algorithms and FORTRAN computer programs are also given

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Computer Programs for Spatial Demographic Analysis

This paper lays out the algorithms and presents the FORTRAN IV codes of computer programs for spatial demographic analysis. The programs compute the multiregional life table and perform the population projection for a multiregional demographic system. The focus of this paper is on the interpretation of the output and on the preparation of the input data