Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): bovine tuberculosis

Non peer reviewe

Risk-based surveillance for human health hazards: the example of Trichinella

Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in surveillance for human health hazards can be met by introducmg risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations w1th higher risk of infection compared to the whole population. We demonstrate how historical data from surveillance can be used to assess risk of infection. The model is called Discounting historical evidence and depends mainly on two variables: Annual risk of introduction Plntro and surveillance system sensitivity SSe (ability to detect infection if present). The model Implies simulations that reiterate for a number of years, and for each year the output is updated with the confidence on absence of infection. Trichinella spiralis infection in pigs is used as an example. In Denmark, pigs at slaughter are tested (currently 23 million per year), and despite of \u3e 70 years of sampling no pigs have been found positive. Hence, we concluded that Plntro is low. SSe can be estimated from the maximum number of infected carcasses expected under the specified design prevalence, and the sensitivity of the test applied. According to the assessment, the prevalence of Trichmella in Danish pigs is negligible (\u3c1 case/million). Based on this , a risk-based surveillance programme for Trichinella is designed that targets all out-door reared pigs as well as all sows and boars (currently 610,000 per year). Compared to confined pigs, outdoor-reared pigs have higher risk of getting Trichinella because of their exposure to wildlife, which might harbour Trichinella. Sows and boars are at increased risk, because they live longer than fimshers. Again, SSe and Plntro are estimated and the model is used to show how risk-based surveillance can be applied without jeopardizing human health. Finally, we incorporate wildlife surveys and test quality assurance in the programme. The model results are included in an application to the European Commission concern1ng Denmark\u27s status as a region with negligible risk of Trichinella

Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data

We present two simple, semiquantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of first 14 days incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate the likelihood and the consequences, respectively, of the ultimate size of an ongoing FMD epidemic. The tools allow risk assessors to communicate timely, objectively, and efficiently to risk managers and less technically inclined stakeholders about the potential of introducing FMD suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore the FFI principle with complementary field data, we analyzed the FMD outbreaks in Argentina in 2001, with the 17 affected provinces as the units of observation. Two different vaccination strategies were applied during this extended epidemic. In a series of 5,000 Danish simulated FMD epidemics, the numbers of outbreak herds at day 14 and at the end of the epidemics were estimated under different control strategies. To simplify and optimize the presentation of the resulting data for urgent decisions to be made by the risk managers, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, as well as the negative and positive predictive values, using a chosen day-14 outbreak number as predictor of the magnitude of the number of remaining post-day-14 outbreaks under a continued basic control strategy. Furthermore, during an ongoing outbreak, the actual cumulative number of detected infected herds at day 14 will be known exactly. Among the number of epidemics lasting >14 days out of the 5,000 simulations under the basic control scenario, we selected those with an assumed accumulated number of detected outbreaks at day 14. The distribution of the estimated number of detected outbreaks at the end of the simulated epidemics minus the number at day 14 was estimated for the epidemics lasting more than 14 days. For comparison, the same was done for identical epidemics (i.e., seeded with the same primary outbreak herds) under a suppressive vaccination scenario. The results indicate that, during the course of an FMD epidemic, simulated likelihood predictions of the remaining epidemic size and of potential benefits of alternative control strategies can be presented to risk managers and other stakeholders in objective and easily communicable ways