Using Social Media to Assess the Impact of Weather and Climate on Visitation to Outdoor Recreation Settings

When people post photos on social media, these photos often contain information on the location, time, and date the photo was taken; all of this information is stored as metadata and is often never seen or used by the individuals posting the photos. This information can be used by researchers however, to understand the total number of visitors to parks and protected areas, as well as specific places people visit within those parks and protected areas. The first study in this dissertation reviews all the ways social media has been used to understand visitation and visitors’ experiences in parks. Researchers can connect the photo locations from social media to other datasets to understand how different factors, such as the weather or climate, influence park visitation. Weather refers to the conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, at any given place and time; climate refers to the long-term weather averages at a location, often over a period of 30 years or more. The second paper explores how weather affects where visitors go within 110 U.S. National Parks. Daily temperature and precipitation influence visitors’ elevation and distance to roads, parking areas, buildings, and bodies of water. However, the effect of weather varies in parks with different climates and landscapes. Visitors in some parks may be more able to adapt to adverse weather conditions by visiting park areas with preferable weather. In the third study, I examine how the climate of federal and state-managed public lands impact visitation by season. Across the conterminous U.S., visitation was higher in places with warmer average temperatures in the fall, spring, and winter. However, visitation was higher in places with relatively cooler average temperatures in the summer. Climate has a larger effect on visitation to public lands in the summer and winter, and in the Western U.S. Collectively, these studies provide insight into how visitation to and within parks, protected areas, and public lands in the U.S. may change due to weather conditions and climate change

Communicating Information on Nature-Related Topics: Preferred Information Channels and Trust in Sources

How information is communicated influences the public’s environmental perceptions and behaviors. Information channels and sources both play an important role in the dissemination of information. Trust in a source is often used as a proxy for whether a particular piece of information is credible. To determine preferences for information channels and trust in various sources for information on nature-related topics, a mail-out survey was sent to randomly selected U.S. addresses (n = 1,030). Diverse groups of people may have differing communication preferences. Therefore, we explored differences in channel preferences and trust by demographics using regression models. Overall, the most preferred channels were personal experience, reading online content, and watching visual media online. The most trusted sources were science organizations, universities, and friends/family. Channel preferences varied the most by education level and age, while source trust was most influenced by education, race, age, and size of current residence (rural-urban). The influence of demographics varied depending on the individual channel and source, with some groups preferring certain channels or sources but not others. Results are useful to consider when disseminating information on nature-related topics to a general public audience. More broadly, results also suggest spreading information using different channels and sources depending on the specific audience being targeted

Enhanced Retention In The Passive-Avoidance Task By 5-HT1A Receptor Blockade Is Not Associated With Increased Activity Of The Central Nucleus Of The Amygdala

The effect of blockade of S-HT1A receptors was investigated on (1) retention in a mildly aversive passive-avoidance task, and (2) spontaneous single-unit activity of central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA) neurons, a brain site implicated in modulation of retention. Systemic administration of the selective S-HT1A antagonist NAN-190 immediately after training markedly-and dose-dependently-facilitated retention in the passive-avoidance task; enhanced retention was time-dependent and was not attributable to variations in wattages of shock received by animals. Systemic administration of NAN-190 had mixed effects on spontaneous single-unit activity of CeA neurons recorded extracellularly in vivo; microiontophoretic application of S-HT, in contrast, consistently and potently suppressed CeA activity. The present findings-that S-HT1A receptor blockade by NAN-190 (1) enhances retention in the passive-avoidance task, and (2) does not consistently increase spontaneous neuronal activity of the CeA-provide evidence that a serotonergic system tonically inhibits modulation of retention in the passive-avoidance task through activation of the S-HT1A receptor subtype at brain sites located outside the CeA

Attendance Trends Threaten Future Operations of America’s State Park Systems

This research examines how the operating expenditures of America’s state park systems will be affected by a continued growth in attendance consistent with observed trends as well as potential climate futures. We construct a longitudinal panel dataset (1984–2017) describing the operations and characteristics of all 50 state park systems. These data are analyzed with a time-varying stochastic frontier model. Estimates from the model are used to forecast operating expenditures to midcentury under four different scenarios. The first scenario assumes annual attendance within each state park system will continue to grow (or decline) at the same average annual rate that it has over the period of observation. The subsequent scenarios assume statewide annual mean temperatures will increase following the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. Operating expenditures under a scenario where annual growth in attendance stays consistent with observed trends are forecasted to increase 756% by midcentury; this is an order of magnitude larger than projected expenditures under any of the climate scenarios. The future climate change scenarios yielded increases in operating expenditures between 25% (RCP2.6) and 61% (RCP8.5) by 2050. Attendance is the single largest factor affecting the operations of America’s state park systems, dwarfing the influence of climate change, which is significant and nontrivial. The future of America’s state park systems will depend upon increased support from state legislatures, as well as management actions that generate funds for the maintenance of existing infrastructure and facilities, and the provisioning of services

Bringing Forecasting Into the Future: Using Google to Predict Visitation in U.S. National Parks

In recent years, visitation to U.S. National Parks has been increasing, with the majority of this increase occurring in a subset of parks. As a result, managers in these parks must respond quickly to increasing visitor-related challenges. Improved visitation forecasting would allow managers to more proactively plan for such increases. In this study, we leverage internet search data that is freely available through Google Trends to create a forecasting model. We compare this Google Trends model to a traditional autoregressive forecasting model. Overall, our Google Trends model accurately predicted 97% of the total visitation variation to all parks one year in advance from 2013 to 2017 and outperformed the autoregressive model by all metrics. While our Google Trends model performs better overall, this was not the case for each park unit individually; the accuracy of this model varied significantly from park to park. We hypothesized that park attributes related to trip planning would correlate with the accuracy of our Google Trends model, but none of the variables tested produced overly compelling results. Future research can continue exploring the utility of Google Trends to forecast visitor use in protected areas, or use methods demonstrated in this paper to explore alternative data sources to improve visitation forecasting in U.S. National Parks

Aesthetic Characteristics of the Front Range: An Analysis of Viewsheds Provided by Boulder OSMP Lands

The city of Boulder’s Open Space and Mountain Parks (OSMP) lands offer residents and visitors a variety of unique recreational, scenic, and cultural experiences that are often captured and shared publicly via social media. Given the diversity of OSMP lands, visitor experiences likely differ based on the aesthetic and biophysical features that can be viewed from these landscapes. For instance, the peaks of the iconic Flatirons provide visitors with different scenic views than the low-lying grasslands in the southeastern area of the city. Furthermore, visitor use and enjoyment of OSMP lands could be directly related to the landscape features that are visible from these different locations. Understanding how visible landscape features vary across OSMP lands can help managers target their planning efforts to improve the quality of outdoor recreation experiences, and potentially identify new locations for outdoor recreation infrastructure (e.g., trails, pavilions, etc.) that offer the ability to see the regions most desirable landscape features. This study: (1) identifies points in the landscape where users are often inspired to take photographs; (2) maps the landscapes most often viewed by visitors; (3) summarizes the types of landscape features viewed from OSMP lands; and (4) determines how these landscape features vary across LCAs

Landscape Values and Aesthetic Preferences Across the Front Range

Boulder’s Open Space and Mountain Parks (OSMP) lands are managed to provide a diverse set of benefits valued by Boulder’s residents as well as tourists. Not all OSMP lands provide the same set of benefits however. Understanding how the values associated with OSMP lands vary across the region can provide managers with insights into how best to allocate resources so that they yield the maximum public benefit. In addition to an understanding of the values visitors associate with OSMP lands, management can benefit from knowledge of how different features of the landscape impact user experiences, both positively and negatively

Estimating Trail Use and Visitor Spatial Distribution Using Mobile Device Data: An Example From the Nature Reserve of Orange County, California USA

Monitoring visitor use in parks and protected areas (PPAs) provides essential information for managers of PPAs to evaluate aspects of the visitor experience and balance the ecological disturbance that use creates. Traditional methods for quantifying visitation and spatial use of PPAs are resource intensive and thus are conducted infrequently or at cost-effective intervals which may fail to capture the dynamic nature of modern visitor use trends. This paper provides an addition to a growing literature using mobile-device data to quantify visitation and spatial density of use of urban-proximate PPAs in Orange County, California, USA using the analysis platform Streetlight, Inc. The results of our analysis compared favorably with well-established automatic trail counting and GPS-based monitoring methods, and illustrate several advantages of mobile device data to inform the management of PPAs. Mobile device data provide reliable estimates of visitation and spatial density of use and can augment and compliment existing social and resource monitoring for PPA management and planning

Climate Change and Utah Ski Resorts: Impacts, Perceptions, and Adaptation Strategies

Climate change is a threat to ski resorts, the ski industry, and mountain communities that rely on ski tourism. Ski resorts may be able to mitigate some of the social and economic impacts caused by climate change with proactive adaptation strategies. Using historical weather data, future climate projections, and interviews with ski resort managers in Utah (United States), this research investigates the effects of climate change on ski resorts across the state. We examine temperature change at all resorts within the state from 1980–2018 and climate projections from 2021–2100 under different climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). We also report on semistructured interviews with resort managers to provide insights into how resort leadership perceives the impacts of climate change, is implementing adaptation strategies, and is addressing barriers to adaptation. Many resorts in Utah are warming faster than global averages, and minimum temperatures are rising faster than maximum temperatures. By the end of the century, winter (December–March) minimum daily temperatures in Utah could warm an additional 6.0°C under the RCP 8.5 scenario near northern Utah resorts and 6.6°C near southern Utah resorts. Resort managers are concerned about shorter season lengths, shifting ski seasons, less snow cover, and poorer snow quality. Many resorts are already adapting, with the most common adaptations being snowmaking and diversifying outdoor recreation offerings (particularly during the summer and shoulder seasons). Barriers to adaptation reported by managers include financial costs, adequate water availability for snowmaking, and uncertainty about climate change projections. Climate change is already impacting Utah ski resorts, but adaptation practices can reduce the negative impacts to some degree at most resorts

WISE/NEOWISE Observations of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

We report results based on mid-infrared photometry of comet 103P/Hartley 2 taken during 2010 May 4-13 (when the comet was at a heliocentric distance of 2.3 AU, and an observer distance of 2.0 AU) by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Photometry of the coma at 22 μm and data from the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope obtained on 2010 May 22 provide constraints on the dust particle size distribution, d log n/d log m, yielding power-law slope values of alpha = –0.97 ± 0.10, steeper than that found for the inbound particle fluence during the Stardust encounter of comet 81P/Wild 2. The extracted nucleus signal at 12 μm is consistent with a body of average spherical radius of 0.6 ± 0.2 km (one standard deviation), assuming a beaming parameter of 1.2. The 4.6 μm band signal in excess of dust and nucleus reflected and thermal contributions may be attributed to carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide emission lines and provides limits and estimates of species production. Derived carbon dioxide coma production rates are 3.5(± 0.9) × 10^(24) molecules per second. Analyses of the trail signal present in the stacked image with an effective exposure time of 158.4 s yields optical-depth values near 9 × 10^(–10) at a delta mean anomaly of 0.2 deg trailing the comet nucleus, in both 12 and 22 μm bands. A minimum chi-squared analysis of the dust trail position yields a beta-parameter value of 1.0 × 10^(–4), consistent with a derived mean trail-grain diameter of 1.1/ρ cm for grains of ρ g cm^(–3) density. This leads to a total detected trail mass of at least 4 × 10^(10) ρ kg