Controls on fire activity over the Holocene

Changes in fire activity over the last 8000 years are simulated with a global fire model driven by changes in climate and vegetation cover. The changes were separated into those caused through variations in fuel availability, fuel moisture or wind speed, which react differently to changes in climate. Disentangling these controlling factors helps in understanding the overall climate control on fire activity over the Holocene. Globally the burned area is simulated to increase by 2.5% between 8000 and 200 cal yr BP, with larger regional changes compensating nearly evening out on a global scale. Despite the absence of anthropogenic fire ignitions, the simulated trends in fire activity agree reasonably well with continental-scale reconstructions from charcoal records, with the exception of Europe. For some regions the change in fire activity is predominantly controlled through changes in fuel availability (Australia monsoon, Central America tropics/subtropics). For other regions changes in fuel moisture are more important for the overall trend in fire activity (North America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Asia monsoon). In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, changes in fuel moisture alone lead to an increase in fire activity between 8000 and 200 cal yr BP, while changes in fuel availability lead to a decrease. Overall, the fuel moisture control is dominating the simulated fire activity for Sub-Saharan Africa. The simulations clearly demonstrate that both changes in fuel availability and changes in fuel moisture are important drivers for the fire activity over the Holocene. Fuel availability and fuel moisture do, however, have different climate controls. As such, observed changes in fire activity cannot be related to single climate parameters such as precipitation or temperature alone. Fire models, as applied in this study, in combination with observational records can help in understanding the climate control on fire activity, which is essential to project future fire activity

The sensitivity of global wildfires to simulated past, present, and future lightning frequency

In this study, components of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model were used to explore how changes in lightning induced by climate change alter wildfire activity. To investigate how climate change alters global flash frequency, simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 were performed for the time periods preindustrial, present-day, and three future scenarios. The effect of changes in lightning activity on fire occurrence was derived from simulations with the land surface vegetation model JSBACH. Global cloud-to-ground lightning activity decreased by 3.3% under preindustrial climate and increased by up to 21.3% for the RCP85 projection at the end of the century when compared to present-day, respectively. Relative changes were most pronounced in North America and northeastern Asia. Global burned area was little affected by these changes and only increased by up to 3.3% for RCP85. However, on the regional scale, significant changes occurred. For instance, burned area increases of over 100% were found in high-latitude regions, while also several regions were identified where burned area declined, such as parts of South America and Africa. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Corrigendum to "Comparing the influence of net and gross anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM (vol 11, pg 4817, 2014)"

No abstract available

Comparing the influence of net and gross anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM

Global vegetation models traditionally treat anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) only as the changes in vegetation cover seen from one year to the next (net transitions). This approach ignores subgrid-scale processes such as shifting cultivation which do not affect the net vegetation distribution but which have an impact on the carbon budget. The differences in the carbon stocks feed back on processes like wildfires and desert formation. The simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) all describe LULCCs using the "Land-Use Harmonization Dataset''. Though this dataset describes such subgrid-scale processes (gross transitions), some of the CMIP5 models still use the traditional approach. Using JSBACH/CBALANCE - the land carbon component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), this study demonstrates how this potentially leads to a severe underestimation of the carbon emissions from LULCCs. Using net transitions lowers the average land-use emissions from 1.44 to 0.90 Pg C yr(-1) (38 %) during the historical period (1850-2005) - a total lowering by 85 Pg C. The difference between the methods is smaller in the RCP scenarios (2006-2100) but in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 still cumulates to 30-40 PgC (on average 0.3-0.4 Pg Cyr(-1) or 13-25 %). In RCP4.5 essentially no difference between the methods is found. Results from models using net transitions are furthermore found to be sensitive to model resolution

Controls on fire activity over the Holocene

Changes in fire activity over the last 8000 years are simulated with a global fire model driven by changes in climate and vegetation cover. The changes were separated into those caused through variations in fuel availability, fuel moisture or wind speed which react differently to changes in climate. Disentangling these controlling factors helps to understand the overall climate control on fire activity over the Holocene. <br><br> Globally the burned area is simulated to increase by 2.5% between 8000 and 200 cal yr BP with larger regional changes compensating on a global scale. Despite the absence of anthropogenic fire ignitions, the simulated trends in fire activity agree reasonably well with continental scale reconstructions from charcoal records, with the exception of Europe. For some regions the change in fire activity is predominantly controlled through changes in fuel availability (Australia-Monsoon, American Tropics/Subtropics). For other regions changes in fuel moisture are more important for the overall trend in fire activity (North America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Asia-Monsoon). In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, changes in fuel moisture alone lead to an increase in fire activity between 8000 and 200 cal yr BP, while changes in fuel availability lead to a decrease. Overall, the fuel moisture control is dominating the simulated fire activity for Sub-Saharan Africa. <br><br> The simulations clearly demonstrate that both changes in fuel availability and changes in fuel moisture are important drivers for the fire activity over the Holocene. Fuel availability and fuel moisture do, however, have different climate controls. As such observed changes in fire activity can not be related to single climate parameters such as precipitation or temperature alone. Fire models, as applied in this study, in combination with observational records can help to understand the climate control on fire activity, which is essential to project future fire activity

The Inflow of Atlantic Water, Heat, and Salt to the Nordic Seas Across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge

The flow of warm, saline water from the Atlantic Ocean (the Atlantic inflow or just inflow) across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge into the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean (collectively termed the Arctic Mediterranean) is of major importance, both for the regional climate and for the global thermohaline circulation. Through its heat transport, it keeps large areas north of the Ridge much warmer, than they would otherwise have been, and free of ice (Seager et al. 2002). At the same time, the Atlantic inflow carries salt northwards, which helps maintaining high densities in the upper layers; a precondition for thermohaline ventilation. The Atlantic inflow is carried by three separate branches, which here are termed: the Iceland branch (the North Icelandic Irminger Current), the Faroe branch (the Faroe Current), and the Shetland branch (Fig. 1.1). These are all characterized by being warmer and more saline than the waters that they meet after crossing the Ridge, although both temperature and salinity decrease as we go from the Shetland branch, through the Faroe branch, to the Iceland branch. All these branches therefore carry, not only water, but also heat and salt across the Ridge.</p