Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Absolute Proper Motions to B~22.5: IV. Faint, Low Velocity White Dwarfs and the White Dwarf Population Density Law

The reduced proper motion diagram (RPMD) for a complete sample of faint stars with high accuracy proper motions in the North Galactic Pole field SA57 is investigated. Eight stars with very large reduced proper motions are identified as faint white dwarf candidates. We discriminate these white dwarf candidates from the several times more numerous QSOs based on proper motion and variability. We discuss the implausibility that these stars could be any kind of survey contaminant. If {\it bona fide} white dwarfs, the eight candidates found here represent a portion of the white dwarf population hitherto uninvestigated by previous surveys by virtue of the faint magnitudes and low proper motions. The newly discovered stars suggest a disk white dwarf scaleheight larger than the values of 250-350 pc typically assumed in assessments of the local white dwarf density. Both a <V/V_{max}> and a more complex maximum likelihood analysis of the spatial distribution of our likely thin disk white dwarfs yield scaleheights of 400-600 pc while at the same time give a reasonable match to the local white dwarf volume density found in other surveys. Our results could have interesting implications for white dwarfs as potential MACHO objects. We can place some direct constraints (albeit weak ones) on the contribution of halo white dwarfs to the dark matter of the Galaxy. Moreover, the elevated scale height that we measure for the thin disk could alter the interpretation of microlensing results to the extent of making white dwarfs untenable as the dominant MACHO contributor. (Abridged)Comment: 38 pages, 5 figures, to appear in April Ap

Reflecting on research produced after more than 60 years of exclosures in the Kruger National Park

All data, in this case works of literature reviewed have been summarised in Online Appendix 2.Herbivores are a main driver of ecosystem patterns and processes in semi-arid savannas, with their effects clearly observed when they are excluded from landscapes. Starting in the 1960s, various herbivore exclosures have been erected in the Kruger National Park (KNP), for research and management purposes. These exclosures vary from very small (1 m2) to relatively large (almost 900 ha), from short-term (single growing season) to long-term (e.g. some of the exclosures were erected more than 60 years ago), and are located on different geologies and across a rainfall gradient. We provide a summary of the history and specifications of various exclosures. This is followed by a systematic overview of mostly peer-reviewed literature resulting from using KNP exclosures as research sites. These 75 articles cover research on soils, vegetation dynamics, herbivore exclusion on other faunal groups and disease. We provide general patterns and mechanisms in a synthesis section, and end with recommendations to increase research outputs and productivity for future exclosure experiments. CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS : Herbivore exclosures in the KNP have become global research platforms, that have helped in the training of ecologists, veterinarians and field biologists, and have provided valuable insights into savanna dynamics that would otherwise have been hard to gain. In an age of dwindling conservation funding, we make the case for the value added by exclosures and make recommendations for their continued use as learning tools in complex African savannas.South African Environment Observation Network (SAEON).http://www.koedoe.co.zaam2023Paraclinical Science