Machine learning used to compare the diagnostic accuracy of risk factors, clinical signs and biomarkers and to develop a new prediction model for neonatal early-onset sepsis

Background: Current strategies for risk stratification and prediction of neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) are inefficient and lack diagnostic performance. The aim of this study was to use machine learning to analyze the diagnostic accuracy of risk factors (RFs), clinical signs and biomarkers and to develop a prediction model for culture-proven EOS. We hypothesized that the contribution to diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers is higher than of RFs or clinical signs. Study Design: Secondary analysis of the prospective international multicenter NeoPInS study. Neonates born after completed 34 weeks of gestation with antibiotic therapy due to suspected EOS within the first 72 hours of life participated. Primary outcome was defined as predictive performance for culture-proven EOS with variables known at the start of antibiotic therapy. Machine learning was used in form of a random forest classifier. Results: One thousand six hundred eighty-five neonates treated for suspected infection were analyzed. Biomarkers were superior to clinical signs and RFs for prediction of culture-proven EOS. C-reactive protein and white blood cells were most important for the prediction of the culture result. Our full model achieved an area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve of 83.41% (±8.8%) and an area-under-the-precision-recall-curve of 28.42% (±11.5%). The predictive performance of the model with RFs alone was comparable with random. Conclusions: Biomarkers have to be considered in algorithms for the management of neonates suspected of EOS. A 2-step approach with a screening tool for all neonates in combination with our model in the preselected population with an increased risk for EOS may have the potential to reduce the start of unnecessary antibiotics

C-Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin, and White Blood Count to Rule Out Neonatal Early-onset Sepsis Within 36 Hours: A Secondary Analysis of the Neonatal Procalcitonin Intervention Study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) is one of the main causes of global neonatal mortality and morbidity, and initiation of early antibiotic treatment is key. However, antibiotics may be harmful. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of results from the Neonatal Procalcitonin Intervention Study, a prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled intervention study. The primary outcome was the diagnostic accuracy of serial measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and white blood count (WBC) within different time windows to rule out culture-positive EOS (proven sepsis). RESULTS: We analyzed 1678 neonates with 10 899 biomarker measurements (4654 CRP, 2047 PCT, and 4198 WBC) obtained within the first 48 hours after the start of antibiotic therapy due to suspected EOS. The areas under the curve (AUC) comparing no sepsis vs proven sepsis for maximum values of CRP, PCT, and WBC within 36 hours were 0.986, 0.921, and 0.360, respectively. The AUCs for CRP and PCT increased with extended time frames up to 36 hours, but there was no further difference between start to 36 hours vs start to 48 hours. Cutoff values at 16 mg/L for CRP and 2.8 ng/L for PCT provided a sensitivity of 100% for discriminating no sepsis vs proven sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: Normal serial CRP and PCT measurements within 36 hours after the start of empiric antibiotic therapy can exclude the presence of neonatal EOS with a high probability. The negative predictive values of CRP and PCT do not increase after 36 hours

B cell depletion in infants after intra uterine exposure to immunomodulating chemotherapy with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP): A case series and review of the literature

The immunomodulating chemotherapeutic drugs rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) have the ablity to pass the placenta during pregnancy and might affect the development of the immune system of exposed infants. In particular rituximab causes a transient and almost complete depletion of CD20 expressing B cells and can remain detectable in the infant several months after birth.In this case series we report on the clinical and immunological outcomes of 3 infants exposed to R-CHOP during pregnancy because of maternal B-cell lymphoma and review other cases that have been published. We show that R-CHOP in pregnancy has a profound effect on the immune system in the first year of life, including B-cell lymphopenia, hypogammaglobinemia, neutropenia and decreased response to immunization. Immune monitoring of exposed infants is warranted

Validation of the pharmacokinetic model for anti- TNFα clearance in infants exposed to anti- TNFα during pregnancy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: ECCO guideline recommend postponing live attenuated vaccines in infants exposed to anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (anti-TNFα) in utero until drug clearance. The aim was to validate the predictive performance of the anti-TNFα clearance model.METHODS: Newborns and anti-TNFα concentrations from the prospective PETIT cohort were included. The anti-TNFα clearance model was used to predict all measured concentrations in the PETIT cohort, based on the measured cord blood concentration and the mean population clearance described in the model. Bayesian maximum a posteriori optimization was used to estimate the value of drug monitoring. Predictive capability and drug monitoring were assessed through Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root mean Squared Prediction Error and Limits of Agreement according to Bland and Altman.RESULTS: Observed drug concentrations after birth were within the 80% prediction interval in 94% of adalimumab samples and 93% of infliximab samples. The anti-TNFα clearance model accurately predicted the concentration at six months after birth with an MAE of 0.03 (SD 0.03) µg/mL for adalimumab and 0.11 (SD 0.18) µg/mL for infliximab based on cord blood concentrations. Addition of an additional sample between 1 and 4 months after birth improved the predictive accuracy for infliximab (MAE 0.05 (SD 0.09)) but not for adalimumab. Guidance for use in clinical practice was formulated.CONCLUSIONS: The validity of the anti-TNFα clearance model is high, and hence can be used to guide clinicians regarding timing of live vaccines in infants exposed to adalimumab or infliximab in utero.</p

Increase in Invasive Group a Streptococcal Infections in Children in the Netherlands, A Survey Among 7 Hospitals in 2022

Following an increase in notifiable invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) infections in the Netherlands, we conducted a survey among 7 hospitals. Pediatric iGAS case numbers were 2-fold higher between July 2021 and June 2022 versus pre-COVID-19. A sharp increase occurred early 2022, most pronounced in <5 years old and for diagnoses empyema and necrotizing fasciitis. This recent pediatric iGAS surge warrants investigation and vigilance

Increase in Invasive Group a Streptococcal Infections in Children in the Netherlands, a Survey Among 7 Hospitals in 2022

Following an increase in notifiable invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) infections in the Netherlands, we conducted a survey among 7 hospitals. Pediatric iGAS case numbers were 2-fold higher between July 2021 and June 2022 versus pre-COVID-19. A sharp increase occurred early 2022, most pronounced in <5 years old and for diagnoses empyema and necrotizing fasciitis. This recent pediatric iGAS surge warrants investigation and vigilance

Timing of Live Attenuated Vaccination in Infants Exposed to Infliximab or Adalimumab in Utero: A Prospective Cohort Study in 107 Children

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: For infants exposed in utero to anti-tumour necrosis factor-α [TNF] medications, it is advised that live-attenuated vaccinations be postponed until the drug is cleared, but little is known about time to clearance. To minimize delays before live-attenuated vaccination can be given, we aimed to develop a pharmacokinetic model to predict time-to-clearance in infants exposed during pregnancy. METHODS: We prospectively followed in utero infliximab/adalimumab-exposed infants of mothers with inflammatory bowel disease across four countries between 2011 and 2018. Infants with a detectable anti-TNF umbilical-cord level and at least one other blood sample during the first year of life were included. RESULTS: Overall, 107 infants were enrolled, including 166 blood samples from 71 infliximab-exposed infants and 77 samples from 36 adalimumab-exposed infants. Anti-TNF was detectable in 23% [n = 25] of infants at 6 months. At 12 months, adalimumab was not detected but 4% [n = 3] had detectable infliximab. A Bayesian forecasting method was developed using a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model. Model validation showed that the predicted clearing time was in accordance with the measured observations. A clinician-friendly online calculator was developed for calculating full anti-TNF clearing time: https://xiaozhu.shinyapps.io/antiTNFcalculator2/. CONCLUSIONS: Almost one-quarter of infants born to mothers receiving anti-TNF during pregnancy have detectable anti-TNF at 6 months. To limit the time to live-attenuated vaccination in infants of mothers receiving anti-TNF during pregnancy, the results of a cord drug level at birth and a second sample ≥ 1 month thereafter can be used to estimate the time for full anti-TNF clearance in these children

Procalcitonin-guided decision making for duration of antibiotic therapy in neonates with suspected early-onset sepsis: a multicentre, randomised controlled trial (NeoPIns)

Background Up to 7% of term and late-preterm neonates in high-income countries receive antibiotics during the first 3 days of life because of suspected early-onset sepsis. The prevalence of culture-proven early-onset sepsis is 0·1% or less in high-income countries, suggesting substantial overtreatment. We assess whether procalcitonin-guided decision making for suspected early-onset sepsis can safely reduce the duration of antibiotic treatment. Methods We did this randomised controlled intervention trial in Dutch (n=11), Swiss (n=4), Canadian (n=2), and Czech (n=1) hospitals. Neonates of gestational age 34 weeks or older, with suspected early-onset sepsis requiring antibiotic treatment were stratified into four risk categories by their treating physicians and randomly assigned [1:1] using a computer-generated list stratified per centre to procalcitonin-guided decision making or standard care-based antibiotic treatment. Neonates who underwent surgery within the first week of life or had major congenital malformations that would have required hospital admission were excluded. Only principal investigators were masked for group assignment. Co-primary outcomes were non-inferiority for re-infection or death in the first month of life (margin 2·0%) and superiority for duration of antibiotic therapy. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were done. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00854932. Findings Between May 21, 2009, and Feb 14, 2015, we screened 2440 neonates with suspected early-onset sepsis. 622 infants were excluded due to lack of parental consent, 93 were ineligible for reasons unknown (68), congenital malformation (22), or surgery in the first week of life (3). 14 neonates were excluded as 100% data monitoring or retrieval was not feasible, and one neonate was excluded because their procalcitonin measurements could not be taken. 1710 neonates were enrolled and randomly assigned to either procalcitonin-guided therapy (n=866) or standard therapy (n=844). 1408 neonates underwent per-protocol analysis (745 in the procalcitonin group and 663 standard group). For the procalcitonin group, the duration of antibiotic therapy was reduced (intention to treat: 55·1 vs 65·0 h, p<0·0001; per protocol: 51·8 vs 64·0 h; p<0·0001). No sepsis-related deaths occurred, and 9 (<1%) of 1710 neonates had possible re-infection. The risk difference for non-inferiority was 0·1% (95% CI −4·6 to 4·8) in the intention-to-treat analysis (5 [0·6%] of 866 neonates in the procalcitonin group vs 4 [0·5%] of 844 neonates in the standard group) and 0·1% (−5·2 to 5·3) in the per-protocol analysis (5 [0·7%] of 745 neonates in the procalcitonin group vs 4 [0·6%] of 663 neonates in the standard group). Interpretation Procalcitonin-guided decision making was superior to standard care in reducing antibiotic therapy in neonates with suspected early-onset sepsis. Non-inferiority for re-infection or death could not be shown due to the low occurrence of re-infections and absence of study-related death. Funding The Thrasher Foundation, the NutsOhra Foundation, the Sophia Foundation for Scientific research