Party membership and campaign activity in Britain: The impact of electoral performance

The article examines the impact of electoral results on party membership and activity. Previous studies have focused on the long-term effects of electoral success or failure, suggesting that they may produce a spiral of demobilization or mobilization. The article shows that the dramatic change of electoral fortunes experienced by British parties at the 1997 general election broke this spiral, with the outcome leading to significant changes in the health and activity of local parties. It is concluded that dramatic election results can have significant implications for party organization

A Comparison of Numerical Methods used for\ud Finite Element Modelling of Soft Tissue\ud Deformation

Soft tissue deformation is often modelled using incompressible nonlinear elasticity, with solutions computed using the finite element method. There are a range of options available when using the finite element method, in particular, the polynomial degree of the basis functions used for interpolating position and pressure, and the type of element making up the mesh. We investigate the effect of these choices on the accuracy of the computed solution, using a selection of model problems motivated by typical deformations seen in soft tissue modelling. We set up model problems with discontinuous material properties (as is the case for the breast), steeply changing gradients in the body force (as found in contracting cardiac tissue), and discontinuous first derivatives in the solution at the boundary, caused by a discontinuous applied force (as in the breast during mammography). We find that the choice of pressure basis functions are vital in the presence of a material interface, higher-order schemes do not perform as well as may be expected when there are sharp gradients, and in general that it is important to take the expected regularity of the solution into account when choosing a numerical scheme

Government Performance and Life Satisfaction in Contemporary Britain

This paper investigates relationships between public policy outcomes and life satisfaction in contemporary Britain. Monthly national surveys gathered between April 2004 and December 2008 are used to analyze the impact of policy delivery both at the micro and macro levels, the former relating to citizens personal experiences, and the latter to cognitive evaluations of and affective reactions to the effectiveness of policies across the country as a whole. The impact of salient political events and changes in economic context involving the onset of a major financial crisis also are considered. Analyses reveal that policy outcomes, especially microlevel ones, significantly influence life satisfaction. The effects of both micro- and macrolevel outcomes involve both affective reactions to policy delivery and cognitive judgments about government performance. Controlling for these and other factors, the broader economic context in which policy judgments are made also influences life satisfaction. © 2010 Southern Political Science Association

Britain Says NO: Voting in the AV Ballot Referendum

The purpose of this paper is to explain why voters made the choices that they did in Britains Alternative Vote (AV) referendum on 5 May 2011. The paper utilises four alternative theoretical models to analyse individual voting behaviour. They are described as the cost-benefit, cognitive engagement, heuristics and mobilisation models. The explanatory power of these models is investigated using a large survey data set gathered in the AV referendum study conducted in conjunction with the British Election Study. Multivariate analyses show that all four models contribute to explaining why some people voted in favour of electoral reform, with the cost-benefit model exhibiting particularly strong effects. The conclusion discusses public reactions to the referendum and possible implications of the decisive rejection of electoral reform after a campaign characterised by disaffection and disengagement. © 2011 The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Hansard Society. All rights reserved

Cardiac Electromechanics: The effect of contraction model on the mathematical problem and accuracy of the numerical scheme

Models of cardiac electromechanics usually contain a contraction model determining the active tension induced at the cellular level, and the equations of nonlinear elasticity to determine tissue deformation in response to this active tension. All contraction models are dependent on cardiac electro-physiology, but can also be dependent on\ud the stretch and stretch-rate in the fibre direction. This fundamentally affects the mathematical problem being solved, through classification of the governing PDEs, which affects numerical schemes that can be used to solve the governing equations. We categorise contraction models into three types, and for each consider questions such as classification and the most appropriate choice from two numerical methods (the explicit and implicit schemes). In terms of mathematical classification, we consider the question of strong ellipticity of the total strain energy (important for precluding ‘unnatural’ material behaviour) for stretch-rate-independent contraction models; whereas for stretch-rate-dependent contraction models we introduce a corresponding third-order problem and explain how certain choices of boundary condition could lead to constraints on allowable initial condition. In terms of suitable numerical methods, we show that an explicit approach (where the contraction model is integrated in the timestep prior to the bulk deformation being computed) is: (i) appropriate for stretch-independent contraction models; (ii) only conditionally-stable, with the stability criterion independent of timestep, for contractions models which just depend on stretch (but not stretch-rate), and (iii) inappropriate for stretch-rate-dependent models

Unsung heroes: Constituency election agents in British general elections

Despite their central role in the electoral process, constituency agents have been largely overlooked by political scientists and this article seeks to rectify the omission. It sketches the origins and development of the role of agent from the late 19th century and suggests that a serious rethink of the role took place in the 1990s. Survey-based evidence about the social characteristics of agents is presented confirming that they are largely middle-aged, middle-class, well-educated men. They are also becoming more experienced, offer realistic assessments of the impact of constituency campaigning and, arguably, many take a long-term view of how their party's support can be maximised

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain over the entire last month of the campaign – and possibly throughout 2016

Was this a Brexit election after all? Tracking party support among Leave and Remain voters

How do Leave and Remain votes map on to the results of the General Election? Paul Whiteley, Harold Clarke and Matthew Goodwin (left to right) look at what happened to party support on a constituency level. They find Labour seats that voted heavily to Leave either stuck with Jeremy Corbyn’s party or shifted their support from Ukip to Labour. The Conservatives benefited too as voters abandoned Ukip. Ultimately the Brexit effect helped them much more than it harmed Labour. They also conclude that youth and education are currently on Labour’s side