Estimating extreme flood events:Assumptions, uncertainty and error

Hydrological extremes are amongst the most devastating forms of natural disasters both in terms of lives lost and socio-economic impacts. There is consequently an imperative to robustly estimate the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes. Traditionally, engineers have employed purely statistical approaches to the estimation of flood risk. For example, for an observed hydrological timeseries, each annual maximum flood is extracted and a frequency distribution is fit to these data. The fitted distribution is then extrapolated to provide an estimate of the required design risk (i.e. the 1 % Annual Exceedance Probability – AEP). Such traditional approaches are overly simplistic in that risk is implicitly assumed to be static, in other words, that climatological processes are assumed to be randomly distributed in time. In this study, flood risk estimates are evaluated with regards to traditional statistical approaches as well as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditional estimates for a flood-prone catchment in eastern Australia. A paleo-reconstruction of pre-instrumental PDO/ENSO occurrence is then employed to estimate uncertainty associated with the estimation of the 1 % AEP flood. The results indicate a significant underestimation of the uncertainty associated with extreme flood events when employing the traditional engineering estimates

Severe maternal morbidity following stillbirth in Western Australia 2000–2015: a population-based study

Purpose There is scant literature about the management of stillbirth and the subsequent risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM). We aimed to assess the risk of SMM associated with stillbirths compared with live births and whether this differed by the presence of maternal comorbidities. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used a population-based dataset of all stillbirths and live births ≥ 20 weeks’ gestation in Western Australia between 2000 and 2015. SMM was identified using a published Australian composite for use with routinely collected hospital morbidity data. Maternal comorbidities were identified in the Hospital Morbidity Data Collection or the Midwives Notification System using a modified Australian chronic disease composite. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors associated with SMM in analyses stratified by the presence of maternal comorbidities. Singleton and multiple pregnancies were examined separately. Results This study included 458,639 singleton births (2319 stillbirths and 456,320 live births). The adjusted RRs for SMM among stillbirths were 2.30 (95% CI 1.77, 3.00) for those without comorbidities and 4.80 (95% CI 4.11, 5.59) (Interaction P value < 0.0001) for those with comorbidities compared to live births without and with comorbidities, respectively. Conclusion In Western Australia between 2000 and 2015, mothers of stillbirths both with and without any maternal comorbidities had an increased risk of SMM compared with live births. Further investigation into why women who have had a stillbirth without any existing conditions or pregnancy complications develop SMM is warranted

Trends and burden of diabetes in pregnancy among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal mothers in Western Australia, 1998–2015

Background Diabetes in pregnancy (DIP), which includes pre-gestational and gestational diabetes, is more prevalent among Aboriginal women. DIP and its adverse neonatal outcomes are associated with diabetes and cardiovascular disease in the offspring. This study investigated the impact of DIP on trends of large for gestational age (LGA) in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, and added to the limited evidence on temporal trends of DIP burden in these populations. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included all births in Western Australia between 1998 and 2015 using linked population health datasets. Time trends of age-standardised and crude rates of pre-gestational and gestational diabetes were estimated in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal mothers. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between DIP and population LGA trends over time. Results Over the study period, there were 526,319 births in Western Australia, of which 6.4% were to Aboriginal mothers. The age-standardised annual rates of pre-gestational diabetes among Aboriginal mothers rose from 4.3% in 1998 to 5.4% in 2015 and remained below 1% in non-Aboriginal women. The comparable rates for gestational diabetes increased from 6.7 to 11.5% over the study period in Aboriginal women, and from 3.5 to 10.2% among non-Aboriginal mothers. LGA rates in Aboriginal babies remained high with inconsistent and no improvement in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes and pre-gestational diabetes, respectively. Regression analyses showed that DIP explained a large part of the increasing LGA rates over time in Aboriginal babies. Conclusions There has been a substantial increase in the burden of pre-gestational diabetes (Aboriginal women) and gestational diabetes (Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal) in recent decades. DIP appears to substantially contribute to increasing trends in LGA among Aboriginal babies

Relationships between intrauterine fetal growth trajectories and markers of adiposity and inflammation in young adults

Background There is now good evidence that events during gestation significantly influence the developmental well-being of an individual in later life. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between intrauterine growth trajectories determined by serial ultrasound and subsequent markers of adiposity and inflammation in the 27-year-old adult offspring from the Raine Study, an Australian longitudinal pregnancy cohort. Methods Ultrasound fetal biometric measurements including abdominal circumference (AC), femur length (FL), and head circumference (HC) from 1333 mother-fetal pairs (Gen1–Gen2) in the Raine Study were used to develop fetal growth trajectories using group-based trajectory modeling. Linear mixed modeling investigated the relationship between adult body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) of Gen2 at 20 (n = 485), 22 (n = 421) and 27 (n = 437) years and the fetal growth trajectory groups, adjusting for age, sex, adult lifestyle factors, and maternal factors during pregnancy. Results Seven AC, five FL and five HC growth trajectory groups were identified. Compared to the average-stable (reference) group, a lower adult BMI was observed in two falling AC trajectories: (β = −1.45 kg/m2, 95% CI: −2.43 to −0.46, P = 0.004) and (β = −1.01 kg/m2, 95% CI: −1.96 to −0.05, P = 0.038). Conversely, higher adult BMI (2.58 kg/m2, 95% CI: 0.98 to 4.18, P = 0.002) and hs-CRP (37%, 95% CI: 9–73%, P = 0.008) were observed in a rising FL trajectory compared to the reference group. A high-stable HC trajectory associated with 20% lower adult hs-CRP (95% CI: 5–33%, P = 0.011). Conclusion This study highlights the importance of understanding causes of the unique patterns of intrauterine growth. Different fetal growth trajectories from early pregnancy associate with subsequent adult adiposity and inflammation, which predispose to the risk of diabetes and cardiometabolic disease

Phase Separation Based on U(1) Slave-boson Functional Integral Approach to the t-J Model

We investigate the phase diagram of phase separation for the hole-doped two dimensional system of antiferromagnetically correlated electrons based on the U(1) slave-boson functional integral approach to the t-J model. We show that the phase separation occurs for all values of J/t, that is, whether $0 < J/t < 1$ or $J/t \geq 1$ with J, the Heisenberg coupling constant and t, the hopping strength. This is consistent with other numerical studies of hole-doped two dimensional antiferromagnets. The phase separation in the physically interesting J region, $0 < J/t \lesssim 0.4$ is examined by introducing hole-hole (holon-holon) repulsive interaction. We find from this study that with high repulsive interaction between holes the phase separation boundary tends to remain robust in this low $J$ region, while in the high J region, J/t > 0.4, the phase separation boundary tends to disappear.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Directional wind measurement derived from elastic backscatter lidar data in real time

The development of a capability to infer wind velocities simultaneously at a number of ranges along one direction in real time is described. The elastic backscatter lidar data used was obtained using the XM94 lidar, developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory for the US Army Chemical and Biological Detection Command. In some respects this problem is simpler than measuring wind velocities on meso-meteorological scales. Other requirements, particularly high temporal fidelity, have driven the development of faster software algorithms and suggested opportunities for the evolution of the hardware

Observations of Coronal Mass Ejections with the Coronal Multichannel Polarimeter

The Coronal Multichannel Polarimeter (CoMP) measures not only the polarization of coronal emission, but also the full radiance profiles of coronal emission lines. For the first time, CoMP observations provide high-cadence image sequences of the coronal line intensity, Doppler shift and line width simultaneously in a large field of view. By studying the Doppler shift and line width we may explore more of the physical processes of CME initiation and propagation. Here we identify a list of CMEs observed by CoMP and present the first results of these observations. Our preliminary analysis shows that CMEs are usually associated with greatly increased Doppler shift and enhanced line width. These new observations provide not only valuable information to constrain CME models and probe various processes during the initial propagation of CMEs in the low corona, but also offer a possible cost-effective and low-risk means of space weather monitoring.Comment: 6 figures. Will appear in the special issue of Coronal Magnetism, Sol. Phy

Magnetic Fields in the 3C 129 Cluster

We present multi-frequency VLA observations of the two radio galaxies 3C 129 and 3C 129.1 embedded in a luminous X-ray cluster. These radio observations reveal a substantial difference in the Faraday Rotation Measures (RMs) toward 3C 129.1 at the cluster center and 3C 129 at the cluster periphery. After deriving the density profile from available X-ray data, we find that the RM structure of both radio galaxies can be fit by a tangled cluster magnetic field with strength 6 microGauss extending at least 3 core radii (450 kpc) from the cluster center. The magnetic field makes up a small contribution to the total pressure (5%) in the central regions of the cluster. The radio morphology of 3C 129.1 appears disturbed on the southern side, perhaps by the higher pressure environment. In contrast with earlier claims for the presence of a moderately strong cooling flow in the 3C 129 cluster, our analysis of the X-ray data places a limit on the mass deposition rate from any such flow of <1.2 Msun/yr.Comment: in press at MNRA

Enhancement of long-range magnetic order by magnetic field in superconducting La2CuO(4+y)

We report a detailed study, using neutron scattering, transport and magnetization measurements, of the interplay between superconducting (SC) and spin density wave (SDW) order in La2CuO(4+y). Both kinds of order set in below the same critical temperature. However, the SDW order grows with applied magnetic field, whereas SC order is suppressed. Most importantly, the field dependence of the SDW Bragg peak intensity has a cusp at zero field, as predicted by a recent theory of competing SDW and SC order. This leads us to conclude that there is a repulsive coupling between the two order parameters. The question of whether the two kinds of order coexist or microscopically phase separate is discussed.Comment: Version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. B. Improved discussion in connection with the muSR result

Black Holes from Nucleating Strings

We evaluate the probability that a loop of string that has spontaneously nucleated during inflation will form a black hole upon collapse, after the end of inflation. We then use the observational bounds on the density of primordial black holes to put constraints on the parameters of the model. Other constraints from the distortions of the microwave background and emission of gravitational radiation by the loops are considered. Also, observational constraints on domain wall nucleation and monopole pair production during inflation are briefly discussed.Comment: 27 pages, tutp-92-