On Guessing: An Alternative Adjusted Positive learning Estimator and Comparing Probability Misspecification with Monte Carlo Simulations

Practitioners in the sciences have used the “flow” of knowledge (post-test score minus pre-test score) to measure learning in the classroom for the past 50 years. Walstad and Wagner, and Smith and Wagner moved this practice forward by disaggregating the flow of knowledge and accounting for student guessing. These estimates are sensitive to misspecification of the probability of guessing correct. This work provides guidance to practitioners and researchers facing this problem. We introduce a transformed measure of true positive learning that under some knowable conditions performs better when students’ ability to guess correctly is misspecified and converges to Hake’s normalized learning gain estimator under certain conditions. We then use simulations to compare the accuracy of two estimation techniques under various violations of the assumptions of those techniques. Using recursive partitioning trees fitted to our simulation results, we provide the practitioner concrete guidance based on a set of yes/no questions

Competition in benthic marine invertebrates: the unrecognized role of exploitative competition for oxygen

Competition is a ubiquitous structuring force across systems, but different fields emphasize the role of different types of competition. In benthic marine environments, where some of the classic examples of competition were described, there is a strong emphasis on interference competition: marine invertebrates are assumed to compete fiercely for the limiting resource of space. Much of our understanding of the dynamics of this system is based on this assumption, yet empirical studies often find that increases in density can reduce performance despite free space being available. Furthermore, the assumption that space is the exclusively limiting resource raises paradoxes regarding species coexistence in this system. Here, we measure the availability of oxygen in the field and in the laboratory, as well as the tolerance of resident species to low-oxygen conditions. We show that oxygen can be the primary limiting resource in some instances, and that exploitative competition for this resource is very likely among benthic marine invertebrates. Furthermore, growth form (and the associated risk of oxygen limitation) covaries with the ability to withstand oxygen-poor conditions across a wide range of taxa. Oxygen availability at very small scales may influence the distribution and abundance of sessile marine invertebrates more than is currently appreciated. Furthermore, competition for multiple resources (space and oxygen) and trade-offs in competitive ability for each may promote coexistence in this system

March Madness: NCAA Tournament Participation and College Alcohol Use

While athletic success may improve the visibility of a university to prospective students and thereby benefit the school, it may also increase risky behavior in the current student body. Using the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study, we find that a school\u27s participation in the NCAA Basketball Tournament is associated with a 47% increase in binge drinking by male students at that school. Additionally, we find evidence that drunk driving increases by 5% among all students during the tournament. (JEL I12, I23, Z28

Improved grade outcomes with an e-mailed “grade nudge”

Information provided at the moment a person makes a decision can influence behavior in predictable ways. The United Kingdom\u27s Behavioural Insights Team have used this idea to help improve the insulation of lofts, collect taxes, and even reduce litter. The authors of this article developed software that appends a personalized message to each assignment in the class regarding the student\u27s current grade. This “grade nudge” explains precisely how the assignment will impact the student\u27s final grade given their current standing in the class. Through a randomized trial, the authors show that the nudge improves student homework performance by about four percentage points

A manipulative test of competing theories for metabolic scaling

The reasons why metabolic rate (B) scales allometrically with body mass (M) remain hotly debated. The field is dominated by correlational analyses of the relationship between B and M; these struggle to disentangle competing explanations because both B and M are confounded with ontogeny, life history, and ecology. Here, we overcome these problems by using an experimental approach to test among competing metabolic theories. We examined the scaling of B in size-manipulated and intact colonies of a bryozoan and show that B scales with M. To explain this, we apply a general model based on the dynamic energy budget theory for metabolic organization that predicts B on the basis of energy allocation to assimilation, maintenance, growth, and maturation. Uniquely, this model predicts the absolute value of B, emphasizes that there is no single scaling exponent of B, and demonstrates that a single model can explain the variation in B seen in nature

Do invasive species live faster? Mass-specific metabolic rate depends on growth form and invasion status

1. Invasive organisms often share characteristics that make them successful. Traits such as rapid growth and short generation times are classic "weed" phenotypes, such that invasive species often have r-selected rather than k-selected life histories. Given that invasive species often display "fast" life histories, invasive species may have relatively higher metabolic rates but systematic tests across taxa are lacking

Dating the Paleolithic:Trapped charge methods and amino acid geochronology

Despite the vast array of different geochronological tools available, dating the Paleolithic remains one of the discipline's greatest challenges. This review focuses on two different dating approaches: trapped charge and amino acid geochronology. While differing in their fundamental principles, both exploit time-dependent changes in signals found within crystals to generate a chronology for the material dated and hence, the associated deposits. Within each method, there is a diverse range of signals that can be analyzed, each covering different time ranges, applicable to different materials and suitable for different paleoenvironmental and archaeological contexts. This multiplicity of signals can at first sight appear confusing, but it is a fundamental strength of the techniques, allowing internal checks for consistency and providing more information than simply a chronology. For each technique, we present an overview of the basis for the time-dependent signals and the types of material that can be analyzed, with examples of their archaeological application, as well as their future potential

Improving Student Performance Through Loss Aversion

Framing an outcome as a loss causes individuals to expend extra effort to avoid that outcome (Tversky & Kahneman, 1991). Since classroom performance is a function of student effort in search of a higher grade, we seek to use loss aversion to encourage student effort. This field quasi-experiment endows students with all of the points in the course upfront, then deducts points for each error throughout the semester. Exploiting two course sequences in the business school of a Midwestern university, a control for domain-specific knowledge, this study examines the impact of loss aversion when controlling for the student’s knowledge in a specific subject. This quasi-experiment indicates that students perform three to four percentage points better when controlling for student ability and domain knowledge (148 subjects). This result is significant at the 1% level in our most robust specification (p = 0.0020). This result is confirmed by a specification including four courses and controlling for student characteristics (217 subjects, p = 0.0190)

Space, race, and poverty: Spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities?

BACKGROUND Multiple and varied benefits have been suggested for increased neighborhood walkability. However, spatial inequalities in neighborhood walkability likely exist and may be attributable, in part, to residential segregation. OBJECTIVE Utilizing a spatial demographic perspective, we evaluated potential spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities across census tracts in Boston, MA (US). METHODS The independent variables included minority racial/ethnic population percentages and percent of families in poverty. Walkable neighborhood amenities were assessed with a composite measure. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables were first calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. Then, Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were calculated as well as Spearman correlations accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We fit ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial autoregressive models, when appropriate, as a final step. RESULTS Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was found in neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. census tract percent Black), but not walkable neighborhood amenities or in the OLS regression residuals. Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were not statistically significant, nor were neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics significantly associated with walkable neighborhood amenities in OLS regression models. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that there is residential segregation in Boston and that spatial inequalities do not necessarily show up using a composite measure. COMMENTS Future research in other geographic areas (including international contexts) and using different definitions of neighborhoods (including small-area definitions) should evaluate if spatial inequalities are found using composite measures but also should use measures of specific neighborhood amenities

Conformations of closed DNA

We examine the conformations of a model for a short segment of closed DNA. The molecule is represented as a cylindrically symmetric elastic rod with a constraint corresponding to a specification of the linking number. We obtain analytic expressions leading to the spatial configuration of a family of solutions representing distortions that interpolate between the circular form of DNA and a figure-eight form that represents the onset of interwinding. We are also able to generate knotted loops. We suggest ways to use our approach to produce other configurations relevant to studies of DNA structure. The stability of the distorted configurations is assessed, along with the effects of fluctuations on the free energy of the various configurations.Comment: 39 pages in REVTEX with 14 eps figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E. This manuscript updates, expands and revises, to a considerable extent, a previously posted manuscript, entitled "Conformations of Circular DNA," which appeared as cond-mat/970104