Spartan Release Engagement Mechanism (REM) stress and fracture analysis

The revised stress and fracture analysis of the Spartan REM hardware for current load conditions and mass properties is presented. The stress analysis was performed using a NASTRAN math model of the Spartan REM adapter, base, and payload. Appendix A contains the material properties, loads, and stress analysis of the hardware. The computer output and model description are in Appendix B. Factors of safety used in the stress analysis were 1.4 on tested items and 2.0 on all other items. Fracture analysis of the items considered fracture critical was accomplished using the MSFC Crack Growth Analysis code. Loads and stresses were obtaind from the stress analysis. The fracture analysis notes are located in Appendix A and the computer output in Appendix B. All items analyzed met design and fracture criteria

Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference

We consider using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors (MSPEs) to evaluate the null that a given series follows a zero mean martingale difference against the alternative that it is linearly predictable. Under the null of no predictability, the population MSPE of the null "no change" model equals that of the linear alternative. We show analytically and via simulations that despite this equality, the alternative model's sample MSPE is expected to be greater than the null's. For rolling regression estimators of the alternative model's parameters, we propose and evaluate an asymptotically normal test that properly accounts for the upward shift of the sample MSPE of the alternative model. Our simulations indicate that our proposed procedure works well.

Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models

Forecast evaluation often compares a parsimonious null model to a larger model that nests the null model. Under the null that the parsimonious model generates the data, the larger model introduces noise into its forecasts by estimating parameters whose population values are zero. We observe that the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) from the parsimonious model is therefore expected to be smaller than that of the larger model. We describe how to adjust MSPEs to account for this noise. We propose applying standard methods (West (1996)) to test whether the adjusted mean squared error difference is zero. We refer to nonstandard limiting distributions derived in Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005a) to argue that use of standard normal critical values will yield actual sizes close to, but a little less than, nominal size. Simulation evidence supports our recommended procedure.

Materials properties, loads, and stress analysis, Spartan REM: Appendix A

The mechanical properties, load tests, and stress analysis of the Spartan Release Engagement Mechanism (REM) is presented. The fracture properties of the components of the unit are also discussed. Detailed engineering drawings are included

The space science data service: A study of its efficiencies and costs

Factors affecting the overall advantages and disadvantages of a centralized facility for both the data base and processing capability for NASA's Office of Space Science programs are examined in an effort to determine the best approach to data management in the light of the increasing number of data bits collected annually. Selected issues considered relate to software and storage savings, security precautions, and the phase-in plan. Information on the current mode of processing and on the potential impact of changes resulting from a conversion to a space science data base service was obtained from five user groups and is presented as an aid in determining the dollar benefits and advantages of a centralized system

Duality Symmetries and G^{+++} Theories

We show that the non-linear realisations of all the very extended algebras G^{+++}, except the B and C series which we do not consider, contain fields corresponding to all possible duality symmetries of the on-shell degrees of freedom of these theories. This result also holds for G_2^{+++} and we argue that the non-linear realisation of this algebra accounts precisely for the form fields present in the corresponding supersymmetric theory. We also find a simple necessary condition for the roots to belong to a G^{+++} algebra.Comment: 35 pages. v2: 2 appendices added, other minor corrections. v3: tables corrected, other minor changes, one appendix added, refs. added. Version published in Class. Quant. Gra

Aging and Rejuvenation with Fractional Derivatives

We discuss a dynamic procedure that makes the fractional derivatives emerge in the time asymptotic limit of non-Poisson processes. We find that two-state fluctuations, with an inverse power-law distribution of waiting times, finite first moment and divergent second moment, namely with the power index mu in the interval 2<mu <3, yields a generalized master equation equivalent to the sum of an ordinary Markov contribution and of a fractional derivative term. We show that the order of the fractional derivative depends on the age of the process under study. If the system is infinitely old, the order of the fractional derivative, ord, is given by ord=3-mu . A brand new system is characterized by the degree ord=mu -2. If the system is prepared at time -ta<0$ and the observation begins at time t=0, we derive the following scenario. For times 0<t<<ta the system is satisfactorily described by the fractional derivative with ord=3-mu . Upon time increase the system undergoes a rejuvenation process that in the time limit t>>ta yields ord=mu -2. The intermediate time regime is probably incompatible with a picture based on fractional derivatives, or, at least, with a mono-order fractional derivative.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Regolith production and transport at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, Part 2: Insights from meteoric 10Be

Regolith-mantled hillslopes are ubiquitous features of most temperate landscapes, and their morphology reflects the climatically, biologically, and tectonically mediated interplay between regolith production and downslope transport. Despite intensive research, few studies have quantified both of these mass fluxes in the same field site. Here we present an analysis of 87 meteoric 10Be measurements from regolith and bedrock within the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHO), in central Pennsylvania. Meteoric 10Be concentrations in bulk regolith samples (n=73) decrease with regolith depth. Comparison of hillslope meteoric 10Be inventories with analyses of rock chip samples (n=14) from a 24 m bedrock core confirms that >80% of the total inventory is retained in the regolith. The systematic downslope increase of meteoric 10Be inventories observed at SSHO is consistent with 10Be accumulation in slowly creeping regolith (∼ 0.2 cm yr-1). Regolith flux inferred from meteoric 10Be varies linearly with topographic gradient (determined from high-resolution light detection and ranging-based topography) along the upper portions of hillslopes at SSHO. However, regolith flux appears to depend on the product of gradient and regolith depth where regolith is thick, near the base of hillslopes. Meteoric 10Be inventories at the north and south ridgetops indicate minimum regolith residence times of 10.5 ± 3.7 and 9.1 ± 2.9 ky, respectively, similar to residence times inferred from U-series isotopes in Ma et al. (2013). The combination of our results with U-series-derived regolith production rates implies that regolith production and erosion rates are similar to within a factor of two on SSHO hillcrests. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved