Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost

Cost Modeling for Space Optical Telescope Assemblies

Parametric cost models are used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews an on-going effort to develop cost modes for space telescopes. This paper summarizes the methodology used to develop cost models and documents how changes to the database have changed previously published preliminary cost models. While the cost models are evolving, the previously published findings remain valid: it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; technology development as a function of time reduces cost; and lower areal density telescopes cost more than more massive telescopes

Update on Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

Since the June 2010 Astronomy Conference, an independent review of our cost data base discovered some inaccuracies and inconsistencies which can modify our previously reported results. This paper will review changes to the data base, our confidence in those changes and their effect on various parametric cost model

Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Space Telescopes

No abstract availabl

CRADA Final Report for CRADA Number ORNL00-0605: Advanced Engine/Aftertreatment System R&D

Navistar and ORNL established this CRADA to develop diesel engine aftertreatment configurations and control strategies that could meet emissions regulations while maintaining or improving vehicle efficiency. The early years of the project focused on reducing the fuel penalty associated with lean NOx trap (LNT), also known as NOx adsorber catalyst regeneration and desulfation. While Navistar pursued engine-based (in-cylinder) approaches to LNT regeneration, complementary experiments at ORNL focused on in-exhaust fuel injection. ORNL developed a PC-based controller for transient electronic control of EGR valve position, intake throttle position, and actuation of fuel injectors in the exhaust system of a Navistar engine installed at Oak Ridge. Aftertreatment systems consisting of different diesel oxidation catalysts (DOCs) in conjunction with a diesel particle filter and LNT were evaluated under quasi-steady-state conditions. Hydrocarbon (HC) species were measured at multiple locations in the exhaust system with Gas chromatograph mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Under full-load, rated speed conditions, injection of fuel upstream of the DOC reduced the fuel penalty for a given level of NOx reduction by 10-20%. GC-MS showed that fuel compounds were 'cracked' into smaller hydrocarbon species over the DOC, particularly light alkenes. GC-MS analysis of HC species entering and exiting the LNT showed high utilization of light alkenes, followed by mono-aromatics; branched alkanes passed through the LNT largely unreacted. Follow-on experiments at a 'road load' condition were conducted, revealing that the NOx reduction was better without the DOC at lower temperatures. The improved performance was attributed to the large swings in the NOx adsorber core temperature. Split-injection experiments were conducted with ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel and three pure HC compounds: 1-pentene, toluene, and iso-octane. The pure compound experiments confirmed the previous results regarding hydrocarbon reactivity: 1-pentene was the most efficient LNT reductant, followed by toluene. Injection location had minimal impact on the reactivity of these two compounds. Iso-octane was an ineffective LNT reductant, requiring high doses (resulting in high HC emissions) to achieve reasonable NOx conversions. Diesel fuel reactivity was sensitive to injection location, with the best performance achieved through fuel injection downstream of the DOC. This configuration generated large LNT temperature excursions, which probably improved the efficiency of the NOx storage/reduction process, but also resulted in very high HC emissions. The ORNL team demonstrated an LNT desulfation under 'road load' conditions using throttling, EGR, and in-pipe injection of diesel fuel. Flow reactor characterization of core samples cut from the front and rear of the engine-aged LNT revealed complex spatially dependent degradation mechanisms. The front of the catalyst contained residual sulfates, which impacted NOx storage and conversion efficiencies at high temperatures. The rear of the catalyst showed significant sintering of the washcoat and precious metal particles, resulting in lower NOx conversion efficiencies at low temperatures. Further flow reactor characterization of engine-aged LNT core samples established that low temperature performance was limited by slow release and reduction of stored NOx during regeneration. Carbon monoxide was only effective at regenerating the LNT at temperatures above 200 C; propene was unreactive even at 250 C. Low temperature operation also resulted in unselective NOx reduction, resulting in high emissions of both N{sub 2}O and NH{sub 3}. During the latter years of the CRADA, the focus was shifted from LNTs to other aftertreatment devices. Two years of the CRADA were spent developing detailed ammonia SCR device models with sufficient accuracy and computational efficiency to be used in development of model-based ammonia injection control algorithms.ORNL, working closely with partners at Navistar and M

Summary and results of the joint WMD-DAC/Alameda County bioterrorism response plan exercise.

On June 12,2003, the Alameda County Public Health Department and Sandia National Laboratories/CA jointly conducted an exercise that used a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Decision Analysis Center (WMD-DAC) bioterrorism attack simulation to test the effectiveness of the county's emergency response plan. The exercise was driven by an assumed release (in the vicinity of the Berkeley Marina), and subsequent spread, of a small quantity of aerosolized, weapons-grade anthrax spores. The simulation used several key WMD-DAC capabilities, namely: (1) integration with an atmospheric dispersion model to calculate expected dose levels in the affected areas, (2) a individual-tracking capability for both infected and non-infected persons as they made decisions, sought treatment, and received prophylaxis drugs, and (3) a user interface that allows exercise participants to affect the scenario evolution and outcome. The analysis of the county's response plan included documenting and reviewing the decisions made by participants during the exercise. Twenty-six local and regional officials representing the health care system, emergency medical services and law enforcement were involved in responding to the simulated attack. The results of this joint effort include lessons learned both by the Alameda County officials regarding implementation of their bioterrorism response plan and by the Sandia representatives about conducting exercises of this type. These observations are reviewed in this report, and they form a basis for providing a better understanding of group/individual decision processes and for identifying effective communication options among decision makers

WASP-30b: a 61 Mjup brown dwarf transiting a V=12, F8 star

We report the discovery of a 61-Jupiter-mass brown dwarf, which transits its F8V host star, WASP-30, every 4.16 days. From a range of age indicators we estimate the system age to be 1-2 Gyr. We derive a radius (0.89 +/- 0.02 RJup) for the companion that is consistent with that predicted (0.914 RJup) by a model of a 1-Gyr-old, non-irradiated brown dwarf with a dusty atmosphere. The location of WASP-30b in the minimum of the mass-radius relation is consistent with the quantitative prediction of Chabrier & Baraffe (2000), thus confirming the theory.Comment: As accepted for publication in ApJL (6 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables

Transportation Energy Pathways LDRD.

This report presents a system dynamics based model of the supply-demand interactions between the USlight-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through the year2050. An important capability of our model is the ability to conduct parametric analyses. Others have reliedupon scenario-based analysis, where one discrete set of values is assigned to the input variables and used togenerate one possible realization of the future. While these scenarios can be illustrative of dominant trendsand tradeoffs under certain circumstances, changes in input values or assumptions can have a significantimpact on results, especially when output metrics are associated with projections far into the future. Thistype of uncertainty can be addressed by using a parametric study to examine a range of values for the inputvariables, offering a richer source of data to an analyst.The parametric analysis featured here focuses on a trade space exploration, with emphasis on factors thatinfluence the adoption rates of electric vehicles (EVs), the reduction of GHG emissions, and the reduction ofpetroleum consumption within the US LDV fleet. The underlying model emphasizes competition between13 different types of powertrains, including conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), conventional hybrids(HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles(BEVs).We find that many factors contribute to the adoption rates of EVs. These include the pace of technologicaldevelopment for the electric powertrain, battery performance, as well as the efficiency improvements inconventional vehicles. Policy initiatives can also have a dramatic impact on the degree of EV adoption. Theconsumer effective payback period, in particular, can significantly increase the market penetration rates ifextended towards the vehicle lifetime.Widespread EV adoption can have noticeable impact on petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas(GHG) emission by the LDV fleet. However, EVs alone cannot drive compliance with the most aggressiveGHG emission reduction targets, even as the current electricity source mix shifts away from coal and towardsnatural gas. Since ICEs will comprise the majority of the LDV fleet for up to forty years, conventional vehicleefficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions over this time.These findings seem robust even if global oil prices rise to two to three times current projections. Thus,investment in improving the internal combustion engine might be the cheapest, lowest risk avenue towardsmeeting ambitious GHG emission and petroleum consumption reduction targets out to 2050.3 AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to thank Dr. Andrew Lutz, Dr. Benjamin Wu, Prof. Joan Ogden and Dr. ChristopherYang for their suggestions over the course of this project. This work was funded by the Laboratory DirectedResearch and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories.