Temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelation of daily concentrations of Alnus, Betula, and Corylus pollen in Poland

The aim of the study was to determine the characteristics of temporal and space–time autocorrelation of pollen counts of Alnus, Betula, and Corylus in the air of eight cities in Poland. Daily average pollen concentrations were monitored over 8 years (2001–2005 and 2009–2011) using Hirst-designed volumetric spore traps. The spatial and temporal coherence of data was investigated using the autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions. The calculation and mathematical modelling of 61 correlograms were performed for up to 25 days back. The study revealed an association between temporal variations in Alnus, Betula, and Corylus pollen counts in Poland and three main groups of factors such as: (1) air mass exchange after the passage of a single weather front (30–40 % of pollen count variation); (2) long-lasting factors (50–60 %); and (3) random factors, including diurnal variations and measurements errors (10 %). These results can help to improve the quality of forecasting models

Annual pollen sums of alnus in Lublin and Roztocze in the years 2001-2007 against selected meteorological parameters

Alder (Alnus Mill.), as an anemophilous species, produces large quantities of easily dispersed pollen. Annual pollen sums recorded in south-eastern Poland (by the volumetric method - Lanzoni trap) and in the area of the village of Guciów in the Central Roztocze region (pollen deposition in Tauber traps) were compared. The height at which the respective trap sites were located as well as local and regional vegetation and the distance from the nearest alder communities differ in both cases, likewise, the climate of these two regions differ. The analysed pollen data series cover the years 1998-2007 in Roztocze and 2001-2007 in Lublin. Large differences have been noted in Alnus pollen deposition values between particular years. Among them, there were observed years of very high annual sums (2001, 2003, 2006), as well as years of very low pollen deposition values in both regions (2002, 2005, 2007). In the period in question, the mean value of annual Alnus pollen count for Lublin was 5372 alder pollen grains in m3 of air, and in Roztocze 1647 grains per cm2 of area. During the seven-year period of monitoring (2001-2007), very similar trends were noted with respect to airborne alder pollen concentrations at both trap sites. Pollen data have been analysed against meteorological factors affecting alder pollen production and deposition. These are total precipitation and mean monthly air temperature in June, July and August in the year preceding pollen emission and the same weather elements in January and February in the year of pollen emission. In Roztocze a statistically significant negative correlation has been found between Alnus pollen annual sums and total precipitation in August in the year preceding alder pollen emission and in February in the year of pollen emission. In both regions, the Spearman's correlation coefficient does not show any statistically significant values when comparing annual Alnus pollen sums with mean monthly temperatures of both January and February and summer months in the year preceding alder pollen emission

Airborne birch pollen in Poland and Latvia in the light of data obtained from aerobiological monitoring and tauber traps in relation to mean air temperature

Birch pollen contains allergens belonging to those with the strongest allergenic properties. In order to trace pollen season patterns of this taxon and pollen annual sums at a wider regional scale, cooperation was established with the University of Latvia in Riga (Latvia). A comparison of the results obtained in the years 2003-2008 in Lublin and in Riga, using volumetric samplers, shows that there was a similar trend in the abundance of birch pollen. The highest sums were noted at both sites in 2003. In all the study years, more birch pollen grains were recorded in Lublin than in Riga, on the average by 7110. The birch pollen seasons started earlier in Lublin than in Riga, on the average by 6 days, and they ended earlier in Lublin, on the average by 18 days. In Riga the birch pollen seasons were longer and less abundant than in Lublin. In addition, in both the regions, i.e. in SE Poland (the Roztocze area) and in Latvia (the area of Marupe near Riga, Taurene, Teici and Rucava), there is pollen data series available obtained from annual pollen deposition monitoring conducted using the modified Tauber traps. These pollen counts have been carried out under the Pollen Monitoring Programme (http://pmp.oulu.fi) since 1998. The 11- year data series in Roztocze and the 10-year data series in Latvia allowed the trends in the occurrence of years of abundant or poor birch pollen release to be traced. In Roztocze maximum Betula pollen deposition occurred in the year 2003, in Latvia - in 1999. The absence of a significant correlation between SE Poland and Latvia with regard to the trends in the occurrence of years of abundant Betula pollen deposition induced the authors to seek climatic factors responsible for increased birch pollen production. The analysis of the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between annual Betula pollen sums in Roztocze and mean air temperature in June, July and August in the year preceding pollen emission as well as in spring (January-April) of the year of pollen emission showed a statistically significant negative correlation with air temperature in February of the year of pollen emission

Extension of WRF-Chem for birch pollen modelling – a case study for Poland.

In recent years, allergies due to airborne pollen have shown an increasing trend, along with the severity of allergic symptoms in most industrialised countries, while synergism with other common atmospheric pollutants has also been identified as affecting the overall quality of citizenly’ life. In this study we propose the state-of-the-art WRF-Chem model, which is a complex Eulerian meteorological model integrated on-line with atmospheric chemistry. We used a combination of the WRF-Chem extended towards birch pollen, and the emission module based on heating degree days, which has not been tested before. The simulations were run for the moderate season in terms of birch pollen concentrations (year 2015) and high season (year 2016) over Central Europe, which were validated against 11 observational stations located in Poland. The results show that there is a big difference in the model’s performance for the two modelled years. In general, the model overestimates birch pollen concentrations for the moderate season and highly underestimates birch pollen concentrations for the year 2016. The model was able to predict birch pollen concentrations for first allergy symptoms (above 20 pollen m-3) as well as for severe symptoms (above 90 pollen m-3) with Probability of Detection at 0.78 and 0.68 and Success Ratio at 0.75 and 0.57, respectively for the year 2015. However, the model failed to reproduce these parameters for the year 2016. The results indicate the potential role of correcting the total seasonal pollen emission in improving the model’s performance, especially for specific years in terms of pollen productivity. The application of chemical transport models such as WRF-Chem for pollen modelling provides a great opportunity for simultaneous simulations of chemical air pollution and allergic pollen with one goal, which is a step forward for studying and understanding the co-exposure of these particles in the air

Impact of meteorological variation on hospital visits of patients with tree pollen allergy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Climate change could affect allergic diseases, especially due to pollen. However, there has been no epidemiologic study to demonstrate the relationship between meteorological factors, pollen, and allergic patients. We aimed to investigate the association between meteorological variations and hospital visits of patients with tree pollen allergy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study subjects were adult patients who received skin prick tests between April and July from 1999 to 2008. We reviewed the medical records for the test results of 4,715 patients. Patients with tree pollen allergy were defined as those sensitized to more than 1 of 12 tree pollen allergens. We used monthly means of airborne tree pollen counts and meteorological factors: maximum/average/minimum temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. We analyzed the correlations between meteorological variations, tree pollen counts, and the patient numbers. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and hospital visits of patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The minimum temperature in March was significantly and positively correlated with tree pollen counts in March/April and patient numbers from April through July. Pollen counts in March/April were also correlated with patient numbers from April through July. After adjusting for confounders, including air pollutants, there was a positive association between the minimum temperature in March and hospital visits of patients with tree pollen allergy from April to July(odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Higher temperatures could increase tree pollen counts, affecting the symptoms of patients with tree pollen allergy, thereby increasing the number of patients visiting hospitals.</p

A prospective survey in European Society of Cardiology member countries of atrial fibrillation management: baseline results of EURO bservational Research Programme Atrial Fibrillation (EORP-AF) Pilot General Registry

Aims: Given the advances in atrial fibrillation (AF) management and the availability of new European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines, there is a need for the systematic collection of contemporary data regarding the management and treatment of AF in ESC member countries. Methods and results: We conducted a registry of consecutive in- and outpatients with AF presenting to cardiologists in nine participating ESC countries. All patients with an ECG-documented diagnosis of AF confirmed in the year prior to enrolment were eligible. We enroled a total of 3119 patients from February 2012 to March 2013, with full data on clinical subtype available for 3049 patients (40.4% female; mean age 68.8 years). Common comorbidities were hypertension, coronary disease, and heart failure. Lone AF was present in only 3.9% (122 patients). Asymptomatic AF was common, particularly among those with permanent AF. Amiodarone was the most common antiarrhythmic agent used (~20%), while beta-blockers and digoxin were the most used rate control drugs. Oral anticoagulants (OACs) were used in 80% overall, most often vitamin K antagonists (71.6%), with novel OACs being used in 8.4%. Other antithrombotics (mostly antiplatelet therapy, especially aspirin) were still used in one-third of the patients, and no antithrombotic treatment in only 4.8%. Oral anticoagulants were used in 56.4% of CHA 2DS2-VASc = 0, with 26.3% having no antithrombotic therapy. A high HAS-BLED score was not used to exclude OAC use, but there was a trend towards more aspirin use in the presence of a high HAS-BLED score. Conclusion: The EURObservational Research Programme Atrial Fibrillation (EORP-AF) Pilot Registry has provided systematic collection of contemporary data regarding the management and treatment of AF by cardiologists in ESC member countries. Oral anticoagulant use has increased, but novel OAC use was still low. Compliance with the treatment guidelines for patients with the lowest and higher stroke risk scores remains suboptimal. © The Author 2013