Equilibrium and non-equilibrium concepts in forest genetic modelling: population- and individually-based approaches

The environment is changing and so are forests, in their functioning, in species composition, and in the species’ genetic composition. Many empirical and process-based models exist to support forest management. However, most of these models do not consider the impact of environmental changes and forest management on genetic diversity nor on the rate of adaptation of critical plant processes. How genetic diversity and rates of adaptation depend on management actions is a crucial next step in model development. Modelling approaches of genetic and demographic processes that operate in forests are categorized here in two classes. One approach assumes equilibrium conditions in phenotype and tree density, and analyses the characteristics of the demography and the genetic system of the species that determine the rate at which that equilibrium is attained. The other modelling approach does not assume equilibrium conditions and describes both the ecological —and genetic processes to analyse how environmental changes result in selection pressures on functional traits of trees and the consequences of that selection for tree— and ecosystem functioning. The equilibrium approach allows analysing the recovery rate after a perturbation in stable environments, i.e. towards the same pre-perturbation stable state. The nonequilibrium approach allows, in addition to the equilibrium approach, analysing consequences of ongoing environmental changes and forest management, i.e. non-stationary environments, on tree functioning, species composition, and genetic composition of the trees in forest ecosystem. In this paper we describe these two modelling approaches and discuss advantages and disadvantages of them and current knowledge gaps

Reptile habitat preference in heathland: implications for heathland management

A two-year reptile survey was conducted in a heathland in the north of the Netherlands, using artificial refuges placed in different habitats. The studied habitats differed in their botanical composition and physical structure. Five reptile species were recorded: slow worm (Anguis fragilis), viviparous lizard (Zootoca vivipara), smooth snake (Coronella austriaca), grass snake (Natrix natrix) and adder (Viperu berus). Randomization tests were applied to assess the relationship between the presence of reptile species and habitat. Highest numbers of reptiles were found in habitats with a combination of common heather and purple moor grass, whereas habitats with common rush scored the lowest. The slow-worm preferred habitats consisting of common heather or crowberry, or a combination of these plants with purple moor grass. The viviparous lizard preferred habitats with common heather and purple moor grass. The impact of current nature management on the maintenance and development of these habitats is discussed, and recommendations are given for reptile faunal management

Bring in the genes: genetic-ecophysiological modelling of the adaptive response of trees to environmental change. With application to the annual cycle

The observation of strong latitudinal clines in the date of bud burst of tree species indicate that populations of these species are genetically adapted to local environmental conditions. Existing phenological models rarely address this clinal variation, so that adaptive responses of tree populations to changes in environmental conditions are not taken into account, e.g., in models on species distributions that use phenological sub-models. This omission of simulating adaptive response in tree models may over- or underestimate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions, as well as the impacts of climate change on tree growth and productivity. Here, we present an approach to model the adaptive response of traits to environmental change based on an integrated process-based eco-physiological and quantitative genetic model of adaptive traits. Thus, the parameter values of phenological traits are expressed in genetic terms (allele effects and—frequencies, number of loci) for individual trees. These individual trees thereby differ in their ability to acquire resources, grow and reproduce as described by the process-based model, leading to differential survival. Differential survival is thus the consequence of both differences in parameters values and their genetic composition. By simulating recombination and dispersal of pollen, the genetic composition of the offspring will differ from that of their parents. Over time, the distribution of both trait values and the frequency of the underlying alleles in the population change as a consequence of changes in environmental drivers leading to adaptation of trees to local environmental conditions. This approach is applied to an individual-tree growth model that includes a phenological model on the annual cycle of trees whose parameters are allowed to adapt. An example of the adaptive response of the onset of the growing season across Europe is presented

Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF) runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year<sup>−1</sup>, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74%) with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19%) and pasture fires (7%). In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation and from maintenance fires did not covary, although the effect was small due to the minor contribution of maintenance fires. Our results demonstrate how the DECAF model can be used to model deforestation fire emissions at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. Detailed model output is suitable for policy applications concerned with annual emissions estimates distributed among post-clearing land uses and science applications in combination with atmospheric emissions modelling to provide constrained global deforestation fire emissions estimates. DECAF currently estimates emissions from fire; future efforts can incorporate other aspects of net carbon emissions from deforestation including soil respiration and regrowth

Ontwerp-ecotopenstelsel kustwateren; voorstel voor classificatie en advies voor validatie

Dit rapport beschrijft een ontwerp van een ecotopenstelsel voor de Nederlandse kustwateren met een indeling van 28 sublitorale, litorale en supralitorale ecotopen met de fysische parameters diepteligging (drie klassen), droogvaltijd (vier klassen), overspoelingsfrequentie (vijf klassen), dynamiek (drie klassen), substraat (vijf klassen), zoutgehalte (twee klassen) en een biologische parameter voor mosselbanken en zeegrasvelden. Van alle ecotopen wordt de ligging en ecologische inhoud beschreven. De aansluiting met de EUNIS Marine Habitat Classification, het Benedenrivierecotopenstelsel en een classificatie van terrestrische kustbroedvogelecotopen wordt besproken. Voor validatie en kalibratie wordt een canonische correspondentieanalyse voorgesteld, allereerst met een beperkte gegevensset

Veranderingen in insectenplagen op bomen: monitoring sinds 1946 maakt trends zichtbaar

Verschuivingen in het voorkomen van plaaginsecten op bomen in bossen, landschappelijke beplantingen en stedelijk groen (zowel inheemse als nieuwe, exotische soorten). Er is een toptien van plaaginsecten samengesteld voor periodes van vijf jaar vanaf 1946, waarbij een verschuiving valt waar te nemen van naaldhoutsoorten naar loofhoutsoorten. Klimaatverandering en type bosbeheer kunnen een rol spele

Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)

New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used maps of burned area derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997–2000) and estimates of plant productivity derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions according to this version 3 of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) were 2.0 Pg C year⁻¹ with significant interannual variability during 1997–2001 (2.8 Pg C year⁻¹ in 1998 and 1.6 Pg C year⁻¹ in 2001). Globally, emissions during 2002–2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg C year⁻¹) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg C year⁻¹) and 2009 (1.5 Pg C year⁻¹) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. On a regional basis, emissions were highly variable during 2002–2007 (e.g., boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia), but these regional differences canceled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001–2009), most carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. Total carbon emissions were on average 13% lower than in our previous (GFED2) work. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH₄, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 Pg C year⁻¹. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series

Genetic adaptive response: missing issue in climate change assessment studies

Two misconceptions on the adaptive potential of forests occur in climate change impact assessments. The first is that forests would be unable to adapt genetically, as climate change occurs within the lifespan of trees. However, selection takes place continuously in the regeneration phase of the forest when the number of individuals are reduced from many thousands seedlings to several hundred trees per hectare. Thus, although an individual tree might face century or more changing climate, the population where this tree dies may already strongly deviate in its genetic make-up compared to the population in which the tree germinated. The second misconception is that differences between tree species or woody plant functional types are more important for climate change assessments than differences within a tree species. However, there is ample evidence that provenances have adapted to their local environment and consequently differ in their response to climate change. The ForGEM model attempts to accommodate for both misconceptions by combining a classical process-based individual-tree model with a quantitative genetic model. The model parameters can be characterized by the genetic model and result in local adaptation. Key-results of the application of the ForGEM model in climate change assessment are that genetic adaptation is indeed possible within a few generations for important adaptive traits such as phenology and water use, and that the rate of response of adaptive traits to climate change is strongly affected by forest management. We argue that, based on: 1) observational findings of different responses of populations of the same species to climate change due to local adaptation, 2) the simulated findings of adaptive responses within the time frame of climate change, and 3) the vast technological development in genome wide association studies, it is necessary and feasible to include genetic adaptive processes in cross-sectorial climate change assessment studies

Ecologische effecten van het ontwormingsmiddel ivermectine

Het is inmiddels een bekend feit dat ontwormingsmiddelen die aan vee worden gegeven, giftig kunnen zijn voor de mestfauna, de insecten die zich met mest voeden en er hun eieren in leggen. Het verdwijnen van bepaalde soorten mestfauna kan er in bepaalde gevallen toe leiden dat de afbraak van mest in het veld vertraagd wordt, zo blijkt uit buitenlandse studies. Enquêtes wezen eerder uit dat ontwormingsmiddelen in veel Nederlandse natuurgebieden worden toegediend aan grote grazers. Komen dit soort ecologische effecten dus ook in onze natuurgebieden voor? Dit is de afgelopen jaren door Alterra onderzocht in opdracht van het ministerie van EL&I