Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective

The development of atmospheric blocks over the North Atlantic–European region can lead to extreme weather events like heat waves or cold air outbreaks. Despite their potential severe impact on surface weather, the correct prediction of blocking lifecycles remains a key challenge in cur- rent numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Increasing evidence suggests that latent heat release in cyclones, the advection of cold air (cold air outbreaks, CAOs) from the Arctic over the North Atlantic, and associated air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream are key processes contribut- ing to the onset, maintenance, and persistence of such flow regimes. To better understand the mechanism connecting air-sea interactions over the Gulf Stream with changes in the large-scale flow, we focus on an episode between 20 and 27 February 2019, when a quasi-stationary upper-level ridge was established over western Europe accompanied by an intensified storm track in the northwestern North Atlantic. During that time, a record-breaking winter warm spell occurred over western Europe bringing temperatures above 20$^◦$C to the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and northern France. The event was preceded and accompanied by the develop- ment of several rapidly intensifying cyclones that originated in the Gulf Stream region and traversed the North Atlantic. To explore the mechanistic linkage between the formation of this block and air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream, we adopt a Lagrangian perspective, using kinematic trajec- tories. This allows us to study the pathways and transformations of air masses that form the upper-level potential vorticity anomaly and interact with the ocean front. We establish that more than one-fifth of these air masses interact with the Gulf Stream in the lower troposphere, experiencing intense heating and moistening over the region due to the frequent occurrence of CAOs behind the cold front of the cyclones. Trajectories moistened by the advection of cold air over a warm ocean by one cyclone later ascend into the upper troposphere with the ascending airstream of a subsequent cyclone, fueled by the strong surface fluxes. These findings highlight the importance of CAOs in the Gulf Stream region, indicat- ing that their intense coupling between the ocean and atmosphere plays a role in block development. Additionally, they provide a mechanistic pathway linking air–sea interactions in the lower troposphere and the upper-level flow

Area-Averaged Surface Moisture Flux over Fragmented Sea Ice: Floe Size Distribution Effects and the Associated Convection Structure within the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Sea ice fragmentation results in the transformation of the surface from relatively homogeneous to highly heterogeneous. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) rapidly responds to those changes through a range of processes which are poorly understood and not parametrized in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The aim of this work is to increase our understanding and develop parametrization of the ABL response to different floe size distributions (FSD). The analysis is based on the results of simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Results show that FSD determines the distribution and intensity of convection within the ABL through its influence on the atmospheric circulation. Substantial differences between various FSDs are found in the analysis of spatial arrangement and strength of ABL convection. To incorporate those sub-grid effects in the NWP models, a correction factor for the calculation of surface moisture heat flux is developed. It is expressed as a function of floe size, sea ice concentration and wind speed, and enables a correction of the flux computed from area-averaged quantities, as is typically done in NWP models. In general, the presented study sheds some more light on the sea ice–atmosphere interactions and provides the first attempt to parametrize the influence of FSD on the ABL

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Surface Conditions during Katabatic Wind Events over the Terra Nova Bay Polynya

Off the coast of Victoria Land, Antarctica an area of open water—the Terra Nova Bay Polynya (TNBP)—persists throughout the austral winter. The development of this coastal polynya is driven by extreme katabatic winds blowing down the slopes of Transantarctic Mountains. The surface-atmosphere coupling and ABL transformation during the katabatic wind events between 18 and 25 September 2012 in Terra Nova Bay are studied, using observations from Aerosonde unmanned aircraft system (UAS), numerical modeling results and Antarctic Weather Station (AWS) measurements. First, we analyze how the persistence and strength of the katabatic winds relate to sea level pressure (SLP) changes in the region throughout the studied period. Secondly, the polynya extent variations are analysed in relation to wind speed changes. We conclude that the intensity of the flow, surface conditions in the bay and regional SLP fluctuations are all interconnected and contribute to polynya development. We also analyse the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) forecast for the studied period and find out that incorrect representation of vertical ABL properties over the TNBP might be caused by overestimated sea ice concentrations (SIC) used as model input. Altogether, this research provides a unique description of TNBP development and its interactions with the atmosphere and katabatic winds