Mathematical analysis of complex SIR model with coinfection and density dependence

An SIR model with the coinfection of the two infectious agents in a single host population is considered. The model includes the environmental carry capacity in each class of population. A special case of this model is analyzed and several threshold conditions are obtained which describes the establishment of disease in the population. We prove that for small carrying capacity $K$ there exist a globally stable disease free equilibrium point. Furthermore, we establish the continuity of the transition dynamics of the stable equilibrium point, i.e. we prove that (1) for small values of $K$ there exists a unique globally stable equilibrium point, and (b) it moves continuously as $K$ is growing (while its face type may change). This indicate that carrying capacity is the crucial parameter and increase in resources in terms of carrying capacity promotes the risk of infection.Comment: 14 page

Biodiversity and robustness of large ecosystems

We study the biodiversity problem for resource competition systems with extinctions and self-limitation effects. Our main result establishes estimates of biodiversity in terms of the fundamental parameters of the model. We also prove the global stability of solutions for systems with extinctions and large turnover rate. We show that when the extinction threshold is distinct from zero, the large time dynamics of system is fundamentally non-predictable. In the last part of the paper we obtain explicit analytical estimates of ecosystem robustness with respect to variations of resource supply which support the $R^*$ rule for a system with random parameters.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure. To appear in Ecological Complexit

Early introduction of fish decreases the risk of eczema in infants

BACKGROUND: Atopic eczema in infants has increased in western societies. Environmental factors and the introduction of food may affect the risk of eczema. AIMS: To investigate the prevalence of eczema among infants in western Sweden, describe patterns of food introduction and assess risk factors for eczema at 1 year of age. METHODS: Data were obtained from a prospective, longitudinal cohort study of infants born in western Sweden in 2003; 8176 families were randomly selected and, 6 months after the infant\u27s birth, were invited to participate and received questionnaires. A second questionnaire was sent out when the infants were 12 months old. Both questionnaires were completed and medical birth register data were obtained for 4921 infants (60.2% of the selected population). RESULTS: At 1 year of age, 20.9% of the infants had previous or current eczema. Median age at onset was 4 months. In multivariable analysis, familial occurrence of eczema, especially in siblings (OR 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50 to 2.33) or the mother (OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.30 to 1.84), remained an independent risk factor. Introducing fish before 9 months of age (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.62 to 0.94) and having a bird in the home (OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.75) were beneficial. CONCLUSIONS: One in five infants suffer from eczema during the first year of life. Familial eczema increased the risk, while early fish introduction and bird keeping decreased it. Breast feeding and time of milk and egg introduction did not affect the risk

A retrospective population based trend analysis on hospital admissions for lower respiratory illness among Swedish children from 1987 to 2000

BACKGROUND: Data relating to hospital admissions of very young children for wheezing illness have been conflicting. Our primary aim was to assess whether a previous increase in hospital admissions for lower respiratory illness had continued in young Swedish children. We have included re-admissions in our analyses in order to evaluate the burden of lower respiratory illness in very young children. We have also assessed whether changes in the labelling of symptoms have affected the time trend. METHODS: A retrospective, population based study was conducted to assess the time trend in admissions and re-admissions for lower respiratory illness. Data were obtained from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register for all children with a first hospital admission before nine years of age, a total of 109,176 children. The register covers more than 98% of all hospital admissions in Sweden. The coding of diagnoses was based on ICD-9 from 1987 to 1996 and ICD-10 from 1997. RESULTS: The first admission rates declined significantly in children with a first admission after two years of age. However, an increasing admission trend was observed in children aged less than one year and 35% of first admissions occurred in this age group. The annual increase was 3.8% (95% CI 1.3–6.3) in boys and 5.0% (95% CI 2.4–7.6) in girls. A diagnostic shift appeared to occur when ICD-10 was introduced in 1997. The asthma and pneumonia admission rate in children aged less than one year levelled off, whereas the increase in admissions for bronchitis continued. The re-admission rates for asthma decreased and the probability of re-admission was higher in boys. National drug statistics demonstrated a substantial increase in the delivery of inhaled steroids to all age groups but most prescriptions occurred to children aged one year or more. CONCLUSION: Hospital admissions for lower respiratory illness are still increasing in children aged <1 year. Our findings are in line with other recent studies suggesting a change in the responsiveness to viral infections in very young children, but changes in admission criteria cannot be excluded. An increased use of inhaled steroids may have contributed to decreasing re-admission rates

Determinants of lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness in asthmatic children

SummaryBackgroundAsthma patients exhibit an increased rate of loss of lung function. Determinants to such decline are largely unknown and the modifying effect of steroid therapy is disputed. This cross-sectional study aimed to elucidate factors contributing to such decline and the possible modifying effect of steroid treatment.MethodsWe analyzed determinants of lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) in a Scandinavian study of 2390 subjects from 550 families. Families were selected for the presence of two or more asthmatic children as part of a genetic study, Scandinavian Asthma Genetic Study (SAGA).ResultsThe primary analysis studied the association between the lung function and delay of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) after asthma diagnosis among asthmatic children and young adults with a history of regular ICS treatment (N=919). FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1% pred) was 0.25% lower per year of delay from diagnosis until treatment (p=0.039). This association was significantly greater in allergy skin prick test negative children. There was no significant influence of gender, age at asthma onset, or smoking.In the secondary analysis of the whole population of 2390 asthmatics and non-asthmatics, FEV1% pred was inversely related to having asthmatic siblings (−7.9%; p<0.0001), asthma diagnosis (−2.7%; p=0.0007), smoking (−3.5%; p=0.0027), and positive allergy skin prick test (−0.47% per test; p=0.012), while positively related to being of female gender (1.8%; p=0.0029). Risk of AHR was higher by having asthmatic siblings (OR 2.7; p<0.0001), being of female gender (OR 2.0; p<0.0001), and having asthma (OR 2.0; p<0.0001).ConclusionsThese data suggest that lung function is lower in asthmatics with delayed introduction of ICS therapy, smoking, and positive allergy skin prick test. Lung function is lower and AHR higher in female asthmatics and subjects with asthmatic siblings or established asthma

What are the beliefs of pediatricians and dietitians regarding complementary food introduction to prevent allergy?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The timing of complementary food introduction is controversial. Providing information on the timing of dietary introduction is crucial to the primary prevention of food allergy. The American Academy of Pediatrics offers dietary recommendations that were updated in 2008.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>Identify the recommendations that general pediatricians and registered dietitians provide to parents and delineate any differences in counselling.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 9-item survey was distributed to pediatricians and dietitians online and by mail. Information on practitioner type, gender, length of practice and specific recommendations regarding complementary food introduction and exposure was collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>181 surveys were returned with a 54% response rate from pediatricians. It was not possible to calculate a meaningful dietitian response rate due to overlapping email databases. 52.5% of all respondents were pediatricians and 45.9% were dietitians. The majority of pediatricians and dietitians advise mothers that peanut abstinence during pregnancy and lactation is unnecessary. Dietitians were more likely to counsel mothers to breastfeed their infants to prevent development of atopic dermatitis than pediatricians. Hydrolyzed formulas for infants at risk of developing allergy were the top choice of formula amongst both practitioners. For food allergy prevention, pediatricians were more likely to recommend delayed introduction of peanut and egg, while most dietitians recommended no delay in allergenic food introduction.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In the prophylaxis of food allergy, pediatricians are less aware than dietitians of the current recommendation that there is no benefit in delaying allergenic food introduction beyond 4 to 6 months. More dietitians than pediatricians believe that breastfeeding decreases the risk of atopic dermatitis. Practitioners may benefit from increased awareness of current guidelines.</p

Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of recurrent wheezing during the first years of life (BAMSE)

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cigarette smoking during foetal and early postnatal life may have implications for lung health. The aim of this study was to assess the possible effects of such exposure in utero on lower respiratory disease in children up to two years of age. METHODS: A birth cohort of 4089 newborn infants was followed for two years using parental questionnaires. When the infant was two months old the parents completed a questionnaire on various lifestyle factors, including maternal smoking during pregnancy and after birth. At one and two years of age information was obtained by questionnaire on symptoms of allergic and respiratory diseases as well as on environmental exposures, particularly exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Adjustments were made for potential confounders. RESULTS: When the mother had smoked during pregnancy but not after that, there was an increased risk of recurrent wheezing up to two years' age, OR(adj )= 2.2, (95% CI 1.3 – 3.6). The corresponding OR was 1.6, (95% CI 1.2 – 2.3) for reported exposure to ETS with or without maternal smoking in utero. Maternal smoking during pregnancy but no exposure to ETS also increased the risk of doctor's diagnosed asthma up to two years of age, OR(adj )= 2.1, (95% CI 1.2 – 3.7). CONCLUSION: Exposure to maternal cigarette smoking in utero is a risk factor for recurrent wheezing, as well as doctor's diagnosed asthma in children up to two yearsof age