An interpretable imbalanced semi-supervised deep learning framework for improving differential diagnosis of skin diseases

Dermatological diseases are among the most common disorders worldwide. This paper presents the first study of the interpretability and imbalanced semi-supervised learning of the multiclass intelligent skin diagnosis framework (ISDL) using 58,457 skin images with 10,857 unlabeled samples. Pseudo-labelled samples from minority classes have a higher probability at each iteration of class-rebalancing self-training, thereby promoting the utilization of unlabeled samples to solve the class imbalance problem. Our ISDL achieved a promising performance with an accuracy of 0.979, sensitivity of 0.975, specificity of 0.973, macro-F1 score of 0.974 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.999 for multi-label skin disease classification. The Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) method is combined with our ISDL to explain how the deep learning model makes predictions. This finding is consistent with the clinical diagnosis. We also proposed a sampling distribution optimisation strategy to select pseudo-labelled samples in a more effective manner using ISDLplus. Furthermore, it has the potential to relieve the pressure placed on professional doctors, as well as help with practical issues associated with a shortage of such doctors in rural areas

Measurement and Analysis of High Frequency Assert Volatility Based on Functional Data Analysis

Information and communication technology have enabled the collection of high-frequency financial asset time series data. However, the high spatial and temporal resolution nature of these data makes it challenging to compare financial asset characteristics patterns and identify the risk. To address this challenge, a method for realized volatility calculation based on the functional data analysis (FDA) method is proposed. A time–price functional curve is constructed by the functional data analysis method to calculate the realized volatility as the curvature integral of the time–price functional curve. This method could effectively eliminate the interference of market microstructure noise, which could not only allow capital asset price to be decomposed into a continuous term and a noise term by asymptotic convergence, but also could decouple the noise from the discrete-time series. Additionally, it could obtain the value of volatility at any given time, which is no concern about correlations between repeated, mixed frequencies and unequal intervals sampling problems and relaxes the structural constraints and distribution setting of data acquisition. To demonstrate our methods, we analyze a per-second level financial asset dataset. Additionally, sensitivity analysis on the selection of the no equally spaced sample is conducted, and we further add noise to ensure the robustness of our methods and discuss their implications in practice, especially being conducive to more micro analysis of the volatility of the financial market and understanding the rapidly changing changes

Global Solar Radiation Prediction Using Hybrid Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine Model

Accurate global solar radiation prediction is highly essential for related research on renewable energy sources. The cost implication and measurement expertise of global solar radiation emphasize that intelligence prediction models need to be applied. On the basis of long-term measured daily solar radiation data, this study uses a novel regularized online sequential extreme learning machine, integrated with variable forgetting factor (FOS-ELM), to predict global solar radiation at Bur Dedougou, in the Burkina Faso region. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) is applied to build the seven input combinations based on speed (Wspeed), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), maximum and minimum humidity (Hmax and Hmin), evaporation (Eo) and vapor pressure deficiency (VPD). For the difference input parameters magnitudes, seven models were developed and evaluated for the optimal input combination. Various statistical indicators were computed for the prediction accuracy examination. The experimental results of the applied FOS-ELM model demonstrated a reliable prediction accuracy against the classical extreme learning machine (ELM) model for daily global solar radiation simulation. In fact, compared to classical ELM, the FOS-ELM model reported an enhancement in the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) by (68.8–79.8%). In summary, the results clearly confirm the effectiveness of the FOS-ELM model, owing to the fixed internal tuning parameters.Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2018-12-07 (svasva)</p