Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services Value Changes and Its Implication for Sustainability Development Goals

This study quantified the effect of future land use/ land cover changes on ecosystem service values under different scenarios in Mekelle city region for the year 2030. The study utilized land use/land cover changes data of the year 2019 and predicted LULC changes for the year 2030. Identification of the driving forces, was the most important step in predicting the future LULC and was performed using the cellular automata models in CLUDMondo which is a future land use simulation model by coupling human and the natural effects. Scenarios were made under business as usual, implementation of PES schemes and spatial planning. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services value will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2019, whereas under spatial planning scenario, the ecosystem service value will increase by 5.2%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem service value in future. Therefore, special attention should be given to the rehabilitation of ecosystems, the protection of the remaining natural vegetation and water bodies. Overall, these results provide useful inputs to planners to adopt eco-friendly policies to achieve sustainable development goals. Keywords: Scenario, ecosystem service, value, land use/land change, sustainable development goals DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/75-04 Publication date:May 31st 202

Willingness to Pay for Watershed Improvement in Mekelle City Region: A Policy Implications of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES schemes)

The purpose of this study was to model the willingness to pay for watershed ecosystem services improvement and analyze factors that affect households’ support decisions. The city of Mekelle is dependent on multiple ecosystem services beyond the city administrative boundary. The data was obtained from a field data among 384 respondents and expert focus group discussion were used as data sources. The house hold survey was analyzed using econometric model and descriptive stastics by utilizing STATA MP v.14.The data revealed that as per the scenario presented the majority of the respondents 352 (91.7%) were willing to support watershed ecosystem services improvement through regular financial fund while 32(8.3%) are not willing to support. The mean WTP is 65.18 Ethiopian birr monthly payment as additional to the current monthly fee of environmental services. Respondents’ willingness to pay was influenced by bid amount, membership in environmental organization, long stay in the city, house ownership and awareness on the concept of watershed. Respondents were willing to pay because they wanted a sustainable ecosystem services supply for the present and future generations. A payment scheme is possible and it could provide a sustainable flow of fund, however, the willingness percentages still needed to be increased. Community education and public awareness is necessary to enhance knowledge and understand about the importance and values of watersheds. The findings from this study provide noteworthy evidences for further research and baseline information for local government in the development of more operative and all-inclusive approaches for improving watershed ecosystem services. Keywords: Econometric model, Payment for ecosystem services, Watershed ecosystem Services, Willingness to Pay DOI: 10.7176/JESD/12-5-03 Publication date:March 31st 202

Dynamic Properties of Local Memphis Area Loess

This study was motivated by the fact that the current practice for performing seismic site response analysis in the Memphis area uses shear modulus degradation and damping that are based on test results of soils obtained outside of the Memphis area. Memphis is located in the New Madrid seismic zone and is covered predominantly by loess soil. Loess has unique behavior from other soils. The purpose of the research is to determine the dynamic properties of Memphis area loess. Inorder to investigate the dynamic properties, remolded specimens with varying saturation levels and densities were prepared and tested using a resonant column and torsional shear, RCTS, device. Each specimen was tested at increasing confining stress and strain amplitudes.Shear modulus degradation and material damping curves were developed to evaluate the parameters that affect the dynamic properties of loess. The influence of void ratio, confining pressure, coefficient of lateral earth pressure, and saturation on shear modulus and damping ratio were evaluated. The dynamic properties of loess soil was found to vary at low saturation, 23%, and remains the same from medium to high saturation levels, 36% to 74%. The effect of confinig stress is found to be more pronounced at low saturation than at high saturation and the influence of void ration is found to insignificant. Shear modulus degradation of loess soil increases slightly and damping reamins constant with decrease of coefficient of lateral earth pressure. The test resuults were also compared with current shear modulus degradation and damping models. Seismic site response analysis was also performed to further compare the impact of using current models and this study test results on ground response

Price Transmission, Market Power and Returns to Scale

In this paper, we aim to model the vertical relation between retailers and suppliers in the food industry whereby retailers exercise seller power in their relation with consumers and buyer power in their relation with producers. We then evaluate the degree of price transmission, relative to the perfectly competitive benchmark, from the farm to the retail sector assuming a supply shock. With the view to evaluating the impact of market power's interaction with industry technology on the degree of price transmission, we assume industry technology to be characterised by variable input proportions and non-constant returns to scale. Our model predicts that, relative to that which obtains when markets are perfectly competitive and industry technology is characterised by constant returns to scale, the degree of price transmission when market power and industry technology interact cannot be unambiguously determined.price transmission, returns to scale, market power, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, L11, Q13,

Social Protection and Vulnerability to Climate Shocks: a Panel Data Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

It is widely predicted that climate change will have an adverse impact on Ethiopian agriculture and exacerbate the problem of food insecurity. In this context, social protection schemes can potentially contribute to households’ autonomous adaptation by reducing vulnerability to climatic shocks. This paper examines the role of the Productive Safety Net Program in reducing vulnerability to climate related shocks and its impacts on autonomous adaptation strategies by taking the case of household income diversification into non-farm activities. The paper assesses vulnerability using index-based approach and the impact of the program using two non-experimental approaches namely; Difference-in-Differences combined with Propensity Score Matching for a panel of 1,306 rural households from the two recent rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household surveys for the years 2004 and 2009. Taking advantage of the extensive data available on climate-induced shocks and a range of activities and incomes, the paper makes a conceptual distinction between non-farm and off-farm income, and uses the recent Adaptive Social Protection framework to examine the impact of the program. The results from the vulnerability assessment indicate that exposure and lack of adaptive capacity to climate-induced shocks explain the vulnerability of rural households and PSNP helps to decrease the vulnerability of households to climateinduced shocks. The results from the non-experimental estimations also indicate that receiving transfers from the PSNP, on average increases income from nonfarm activities. These results partly confirm the hypothesis that social protection can promote positive adaptation strategies and may serve as an effective means of reducing the vulnerability of smallholders to climate change-induced shocks.Keywords: climate change, difference-in-differences, diversification, Ethiopia, social protection, vulnerabilit

Managing animal health status information in the cattle market

The paper analyses the problem of information in the cattle market, particularly as it relates to the status of animal health, and discusses ways to limit it with the view to improving social surplus. Against this background, it aims to achieve three major objectives. Firstly, it describes the ways of improving the level of information through such schemes as Conventional Warranties and Third Party Certification and the different choices made by sellers and buyers in the presence of these schemes. Secondly, it studies the various ways by which these schemes make an impact on equilibria in different markets (i.e., the pooling market and the premium market), and, consequently, on the social surplus. Thirdly, it identifies the necessary conditions for a third party/public decision-maker to increase social surplus and reduce the negative externality caused by disease by managing and supporting Third Party Certification. The paper shows that product certification and product warranty cannot coexist because product warranty is suboptimal. It also shows that certification, and a possible supporting of certification or animal testing does not necessarily improve the safety of the trade.Asymmetric information, Third-Party certification, Disease Externalities, Livestock Production/Industries,

Winners and losers from Johne’s disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd: a Markov-Chain simulation

In this paper, we evaluated the welfare effects of a hypothetical programme of Johne's disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd on different stakeholders in the domestic milk market. We undertook the evaluation using a Markov-Chain simulation and applying an economic welfare analysis which takes into consideration the effects of an eradication programme on product price, on output quantity, on cost and on milk yield for given levels of supply and demand elasticities. We found that, following the eradication of the disease, milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas price and unit cost of milk production fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around £14.3 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds around £13.4 million whereas producers with uninfected herds lost around £10.7 million in discounted surplus. The gain in surplus made by consumers and owners of infected herds, however, more than made up for the loss in surplus made by owners of un-infected herds. Therefore, on balance, Scotland gained a net economic surplus of £17 million from the programme.Johne's, eradication programme, economic welfare effects, economic surplus, I180,

Assessing Supplies of Micro and Small Scale Enterprises to the Tourism Industry in Aksum Town, Ethiopia

The town of Aksum is historically the richest tourist destination in Ethiopia. Thus, it is known for its cultural tourist attractions i.e. archaeological, religious and historical attractions. The objective of this study is to assess the supplies of micro and small scale enterprises to the tourism industry in the town. A qualitative research design was pursued in this study. Data were collected from primary and secondary sources. Interviews were conducted with purposely selected subjects as the main instrument of primary data collection. In addition, field visits were conducted to observe the sites and take pictures. Both published and unpublished secondary sources were used, particularly for the literature review. Participants of this study were selected from the tourism and hotel industry, the Small Scale Enterprises Agency, micro and small scale enterprises, the Culture and Tourism Agency and other government offices. The Ethiopian Sustainable Tourism Development Project (ESTDP) was also consulted to assess the involvement of micro and small scale enterprises in the tourism sector. The findings indicate that micro and small scale enterprises have been divided into the five main economic sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade and service sectors. The Ethiopian Sustainable Tourism Development Project has supported the enterprises in working with the tourism industry. The government’s role in organizing and supporting the enterprises however, seems to be weak. Some of the enterprises produce and sell their products to tourism institutions involved as frontline suppliers to the tourists. However, the enterprises are not well-organized and not strong enough to supply the required quantity and quality. Moreover, some of the enterprises don’t have any link with the tourism sector. The policy implications from this study indicate that local government in collaboration with private sectors and voluntary donors should support the local small enterprises to increase their capacity and improve their supplies