The cometary and asteroidal impactor flux at the earth

The cratering records on the Earth and the lunar maria provide upper limits on the total impactor flux at the Earth's orbit over the past 600 Myr and the past 3.3 Gyr, respectively. These limits can be compared with estimates of the expected cratering rate from observed comets and asteroids in Earth-crossing orbits, corrected for observational selection effects and incompleteness, and including expected temporal variations in the impactor flux. Both estimates can also be used to calculate the probability of large impacts which may result in biological extinction events on the Earth. The estimated cratering rate on the Earth for craters greater than 10 km-diameter, based on counted craters on dated surfaces is 2.2 + or - 1.1 x 10 to the minus 14th power km(-2) yr(-1) (Shoemaker et al., 1979). Using a revised mass distribution for cometary nuclei based on the results of the spacecraft flybys of Comet Halley in 1986, and other refinements in the estimate of the cometary flux in the terrestrial planets zone, it is now estimated that long-period comets account for 11 percent of the cratering on the Earth (scaled to the estimate above), and short-period comets account for 4 pct (Weissman, 1987). However, the greatest contribution is from large but infrequent, random cometary showers, accounting for 22 pct of the terrestrial cratering

Dynamics of long period comets

The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1985 to 1986 and the related emphasis on research on physical models of cometary nuclei, led to a more moderate pace for the dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and the motion of long-period comets this year. Specific areas studied included the dynamical evolution of cometary showers as a result of stars passages through the inner Oort cloud and the possible relationship to observed stepwise mass extinctions at geological boundaries, revised estimates for the total mass of comets in the Oort cloud as a result of lessons learned from the spacecraft encounters with Halley's Comet, and study of the possible dynamical sources for the short-period comets in the solar system as part of a wider study of physical processing of cometary nuclei prior to their becoming visible comets. The work on cometary showers used a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolution of cometary orbits under a combination of planetary, nongravitational, and stellar perturbations, and with physical removal by disruption, sublimation of all volatiles, and collision

The comet rendezvous asteroid flyby mission: A status report

The Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) mission received a new start in fiscal year 1990. CRAF will match orbits with an active short-period comet and follow it around the Sun, making scientific measurements of the nucleus, coma, and tail. The Imaging system will map the nucleus surface at a resolution of 1 meter/line-pair or better, while Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and Thermal Infrared Radiometer Experiment (TIREX) will produce spectral and thermal maps of the surface. Onboard instruments will collect cometary dust, ice, and gases and perform elemental and molecular analysis. A suite of fields and particles instruments will observe the solar wind interaction with the cometary atmosphere and tail. Radio tracking of the spacecraft will provide an accurate measure of the nucleus mass and higher harmonics in the comet's gravity field. En route to the comet, the spacecraft will make a close flyby of a large asteroid, preferably a primitive type from the outer main belt. Observations at the asteroid include remote sensing mapping of the surface, detection of any solar wind interaction observable at the flyby distance, and measurement of the asteroid mass to better than 10 percent accuracy. Detailed design of the CRAF spacecraft is currently underway at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Recent mass growth has necessitated a switch to Venus-Earth gravity assist type trajectories, similar to that used by the Galileo spacecraft. These trajectories require longer flight times from launch to rendezvous with the target comet. The details of the current baseline mission, spacecraft design, and instrument payload will be reviewed

Comet thermal modeling

The past year was one of tremendous activity because of the appearance of Halley's Comet. Observations of the comet were collected from a number of sources and compared with the detailed predictions of the comet thermal modeling program. Spacecraft observations of key physical parameters for cometary nucleus were incorporated into the thermal model and new cases run. These results have led to a much better understanding of physical processes on the nucleus and have pointed the way for further improvements to the modeling program. A model for the large-scale structure of cometary nuclei was proposed in which comets were envisioned as loosely bound agglomerations of smaller icy planetesimals, essentially a rubble pile of primordial dirty snowballs. In addition, a study of the physical history of comets was begun, concentrating on processes during formation and in the Oort cloud which would alter the volatile and nonvolatile materials in cometary nuclei from their pristine state before formation

The comet rendezvous asteroid flyby mission

The Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) mission is designed to answer the many questions raised by the Halley missions by exploring a cometary nucleus in detail, following it around its orbit and studying its changing activity as it moves closer to and then away from the Sun. In addition, on its way to rendezvous with the comet, CRAF will fly by a large, primitive class main belt asteroid and will return valuable data for comparison with the comet results. The selected asteroid is 449 Hamburga with a diameter of 88 km and a surface composition of carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. The expected flyby date is January, 1998. The CRAF spacecraft will continue to make measurements in orbit around the cometary nucleus as they both move closer to the Sun, until the dust and gas hazard becomes unsafe. At that point the spacecraft will move in and out between 50 and 2,500 kilometers to study the inner coma and the cometary ionosphere, and to collect dust and gas samples for onboard analysis. Following perihelion, the spacecraft will make a 50,000 km excursion down the comet's tail, further investigating the solar wind interaction with the cometary atmosphere. The spacecraft will return to the vicinity of the nucleus about four months after perihelion to observe the changes that have taken place. If the spacecraft remains healthy and adequate fuel is still onboard, an extended mission to follow the comet nucleus out to aphelion is anticipated

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit

Cometary Nuclei and Tidal Disruption: The Geologic Record of Crater Chains on Callisto and Ganymede

Prominent crater chains on Ganymede and Callisto are most likely the impact scars of comets tidally disrupted by Jupiter and are not secondary crater chains. We have examined the morphology of these chains in detail in order to place constraints on the properties of the comets that formed them and the disruption process. In these chains, intercrater spacing varies by no more than a factor of 2 and the craters within a given chain show almost no deviation from linearity (although the chains themselves are on gently curved small circles). All of these crater chains occur on or very near the Jupiter-facing hemisphere. For a given chain, the estimated masses of the fragments that formed each crater vary by no more than an order of magnitude. The mean fragment masses for all the chains vary by over four orders of magnitude (W. B. McKinnon and P. M. Schenk 1995, Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 1829-1832), however. The mass of the parent comet for each crater chain is not correlated with the number of fragments produced during disruption but is correlated with the mean mass of the fragments produced in a given disruption event. Also, the larger fragments are located near the center of each chain. All of these characteristics are consistent with those predicted by disruption simulations based on the rubble pile cometary nucleus model (in which nuclei are composed on numerous small fragments weakly bound by self-gravity), and with those observed in Comet D/Shoemaker-Levy 9. Similar crater chains have not been found on the other icy satellites, but the impact record of disrupted comets on Callisto and Ganymede indicates that disruption events occur within the Jupiter system roughly once every 200 to 400 years

Stellar 36,38^{36,38}Ar(n,γ)37,39(n,\gamma)^{37,39}Ar reactions and their effect on light neutron-rich nuclide synthesis

The $^{36}$Ar$(n,\gamma)^{37}$Ar ($t_{1/2}$ = 35 d) and $^{38}$Ar$(n,\gamma)^{39}$Ar (269 y) reactions were studied for the first time with a quasi-Maxwellian ($kT \sim 47$ keV) neutron flux for Maxwellian Average Cross Section (MACS) measurements at stellar energies. Gas samples were irradiated at the high-intensity Soreq applied research accelerator facility-liquid-lithium target neutron source and the $^{37}$Ar/$^{36}$Ar and $^{39}$Ar/$^{38}$Ar ratios in the activated samples were determined by accelerator mass spectrometry at the ATLAS facility (Argonne National Laboratory). The $^{37}$Ar activity was also measured by low-level counting at the University of Bern. Experimental MACS of $^{36}$Ar and $^{38}$Ar, corrected to the standard 30 keV thermal energy, are 1.9(3) mb and 1.3(2) mb, respectively, differing from the theoretical and evaluated values published to date by up to an order of magnitude. The neutron capture cross sections of $^{36,38}$Ar are relevant to the stellar nucleosynthesis of light neutron-rich nuclides; the two experimental values are shown to affect the calculated mass fraction of nuclides in the region A=36-48 during the weak $s$-process. The new production cross sections have implications also for the use of $^{37}$Ar and $^{39}$Ar as environmental tracers in the atmosphere and hydrosphere.Comment: 18 pages + Supp. Mat. (13 pages) Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

WISE/NEOWISE Preliminary Analysis and Highlights of the 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko Near Nucleus Environs

On January 18-19 and June 28-29 of 2010, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) spacecraft imaged the Rosetta mission target, comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. We present a preliminary analysis of the images, which provide a characterization of the dust environment at heliocentric distances similar to those planned for the initial spacecraft encounter, but on the outbound leg of its orbit rather than the inbound. Broad-band photometry yields low levels of CO2 production at a comet heliocentric distance of 3.32 AU and no detectable production at 4.18 AU. We find that at these heliocentric distances, large dust grains with mean grain diameters on the order of a millimeter or greater dominate the coma and evolve to populate the tail. This is further supported by broad-band photometry centered on the nucleus, which yield an estimated differential dust particle size distribution with a power law relation that is considerably shallower than average. We set a 3-sigma upper limit constraint on the albedo of the large-grain dust at <= 0.12. Our best estimate of the nucleus radius (1.82 +/- 0.20 km) and albedo (0.04 +/- 0.01) are in agreement with measurements previously reported in the literature