A Conceptual Framework for Studying the Sources of Variation in Program Effects

Evaluations of public programs in many fields reveal that (1) different types of programs (or different versions of the same program) vary in their effectiveness, (2) a program that is effective for one group of people might not be effective for other groups of people, and (3) a program that is effective in one set of circumstances may not be effective in other circumstances. This paper presents a conceptual framework for research on such variation in program effects and the sources of this variation. The framework is intended to help researchers -- both those who focus mainly on studying program implementation and those who focus mainly on estimating program effects -- see how their respective pieces fit together in a way that helps to identify factors that explain variation in program effects and thereby support more systematic data collection on these factors. The ultimate goal of the framework is to enable researchers to offer better guidance to policymakers and program operators on the conditions and practices that are associated with larger and more positive effects

Publishing structural genomics results continued: the SSGCID Special Issue

Editoria

Molecular Spiders with Memory

Synthetic bio-molecular spiders with "legs" made of single-stranded segments of DNA can move on a surface which is also covered by single-stranded segments of DNA complementary to the leg DNA. In experimental realizations, when a leg detaches from a segment of the surface for the first time it alters that segment, and legs subsequently bound to these altered segments more weakly. Inspired by these experiments we investigate spiders moving along a one-dimensional substrate, whose legs leave newly visited sites at a slower rate than revisited sites. For a random walk (one-leg spider) the slowdown does not effect the long time behavior. For a bipedal spider, however, the slowdown generates an effective bias towards unvisited sites, and the spider behaves similarly to the excited walk. Surprisingly, the slowing down of the spider at new sites increases the diffusion coefficient and accelerates the growth of the number of visited sites.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Extracting the time-dependent transmission rate from infection data via solution of an inverse ODE problem

The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The transmission rate has been thought difficult to measure directly. We present a new algorithm to compute the time-dependent transmission rate directly from prevalence data, which makes no assumptions about the number of susceptible or vital rates. The algorithm follows our complete and explicit solution of a mathematical inverse problem for SIR-type transmission models. We prove that almost any infection profile can be perfectly fitted by an SIR model with variable transmission rate. This clearly shows a serious danger of overfitting such transmission models. We illustrate the algorithm with historic UK measles data and our observations support the common belief that measles transmission was predominantly driven by school contacts