Informed Clinical Management of Acute Stroke: Use of Established Statistical Methods and Development of an Expert System

This thesis applies several statistical techniques which aim to provide informed clinical management in acute stroke. An introduction is given to issues arising in stroke management and expert systems methodology. Three linear discriminant scoring systems (the Allen, Siriraj and Besson scores) intended for the differential diagnosis between ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke on the basis of clinical presentation are evaluated in chapter 2. Chapter 3 explores whether angiotensin converting enzyme DD genotype is a risk factor for acute stroke or influences stroke outcome as measured by lesion size. Chapters 4 and 5 assess computed tomography, mean cerebral transit time and single-photon emission computed tomography scanning in terms of their accuracy in predicting functional outcome after acute ischaemic stroke. Chapter 6 broadens the search for prognostic factors, looking at the performance of the Guy's prognostic score and established neurological scales (Canadian neurological scale, National Institutes of Health stroke scale, middle cerebral artery neurological scale) in predicting acute stroke outcome. A linear discriminant score, based on simple clinical measurements recorded in the acute stroke unit, is also developed. Chapter 7 looks specifically at the influence of plasma glucose level on survival following acute stroke, after adjusting for other known prognostic factors using Cox's proportional hazards regression model. The remainder of the thesis is concerned with two aspects of acute stroke management. The first of these is the selection of an appropriate clinical trial for an individual patient. A computer program is developed to obtain, in an efficient manner, the information required to check the entry and exclusion criteria for each available clinical trial. The second aspect of stroke management considered is the choice of a suitable method for secondary prevention of stroke in individual acute ischaemic stroke patients. Candidate methods are long-term anticoagulation with warfarin, or aspirin antiplatelet therapy. Expert system methodology is used to combine positive indications for, and contraindications to each of these therapies with clinical data available in the acute stroke unit. The annual risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, myocardial infarction, other ischaemic complications and other haemorrhagic complications are estimated to allow an informed decision on the appropriate method of secondary prevention to be made

Diagnostic Image Quality Assessment and Classification in Medical Imaging: Opportunities and Challenges

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) suffers from several artifacts, the most common of which are motion artifacts. These artifacts often yield images that are of non-diagnostic quality. To detect such artifacts, images are prospectively evaluated by experts for their diagnostic quality, which necessitates patient-revisits and rescans whenever non-diagnostic quality scans are encountered. This motivates the need to develop an automated framework capable of accessing medical image quality and detecting diagnostic and non-diagnostic images. In this paper, we explore several convolutional neural network-based frameworks for medical image quality assessment and investigate several challenges therein

Diagnostic Image Quality Assessment and Classification in Medical Imaging: Opportunities and Challenges

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) suffers from several artifacts, the most common of which are motion artifacts. These artifacts often yield images that are of non-diagnostic quality. To detect such artifacts, images are prospectively evaluated by experts for their diagnostic quality, which necessitates patient-revisits and rescans whenever non-diagnostic quality scans are encountered. This motivates the need to develop an automated framework capable of accessing medical image quality and detecting diagnostic and non-diagnostic images. In this paper, we explore several convolutional neural network-based frameworks for medical image quality assessment and investigate several challenges therein

RApid Primary care Initiation of Drug treatment for Transient Ischaemic Attack (RAPID-TIA): study protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: People who have a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke are at high risk of a recurrent stroke, particularly in the first week after the event. Early initiation of secondary prevention drugs is associated with an 80% reduction in risk of stroke recurrence. This raises the question as to whether these drugs should be given before being seen by a specialist--that is, in primary care or in the emergency department. The aims of the RAPID-TIA pilot trial are to determine the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial, to analyse cost effectiveness and to ask: Should general practitioners and emergency doctors (primary care physicians) initiate secondary preventative measures in addition to aspirin in people they see with suspected TIA or minor stroke at the time of referral to a specialist? METHODS/DESIGN: This is a pilot randomised controlled trial with a sub-study of accuracy of primary care physician diagnosis of TIA. In the pilot trial, we aim to recruit 100 patients from 30 general practices (including out-of-hours general practice centres) and 1 emergency department whom the primary care physician diagnoses with TIA or minor stroke and randomly assign them to usual care (that is, initiation of aspirin and referral to a TIA clinic) or usual care plus additional early initiation of secondary prevention drugs (a blood-pressure lowering protocol, simvastatin 40 mg and dipyridamole 200 mg m/r bd). The primary outcome of the main study will be the number of strokes at 90 days. The diagnostic accuracy sub-study will include these 100 patients and an additional 70 patients in whom the primary care physician thinks the diagnosis of TIA is possible, rather than probable. For the pilot trial, we will report recruitment rate, follow-up rate, a preliminary estimate of the primary event rate and occurrence of any adverse events. For the diagnostic study, we will calculate sensitivity and specificity of primary care physician diagnosis using the final TIA clinic diagnosis as the reference standard. DISCUSSION: This pilot study will be used to estimate key parameters that are needed to design the main study and to estimate the accuracy of primary care diagnosis of TIA. The planned follow-on trial will have important implications for the initial management of people with suspected TIA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN62019087.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Functional strength training versus movement performance therapy for upper limb motor recovery early after stroke: a RCT

Background: Not all stroke survivors respond to the same form of physical therapy in the same way early after stroke. The response is variable and a detailed understanding of the interaction between specific physical therapies and neural structure and function is needed. Objectives: To determine if upper limb recovery is enhanced more by functional strength training (FST) than by movement performance therapy (MPT), to identify the differences in the neural correlates of response to (1) FST and (2) MPT and to determine whether or not pretreatment neural characteristics can predict recovery in response to (1) FST and (2) MPT. Design: Randomised, controlled, observer-blind, multicentre trial with embedded explanatory investigations. An independent facility used computer-generated randomisation for participants’ group allocation. Setting: In-patient rehabilitation, participants’ homes, university movement analysis facilities and NHS or university neuroimaging departments in the UK. Participants: People who were between 2 and 60 days after stroke in the territory of the anterior cerebral circulation, with some voluntary muscle contraction in the more affected upper limb but not full function. Interventions: Routine rehabilitation [conventional physical therapy (CPT)] plus either MPT or FST in equal doses during a 6-week intervention phase. FST was progressive resistive exercise provided during training of functional tasks. MPT was therapist ‘hands-on’ sensory input and guidance for production of smooth and accurate movement. Main outcomes: Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) score for clinical efficacy. Neural measures were made of corticocortical [fractional anisotropy (FA) from corpus callosum midline], corticospinal connectivity (asymmetry of corticospinal tracts FA) and resting motor threshold of paretic biceps brachii (pBB) and extensor carpi radialis muscles (derived from transcranial magnetic stimulation). Analysis: Change in ARAT scores were analysed using analysis of covariance models adjusted for baseline variables and randomisation strata. Correlation coefficients were calculated between change in neural measures and change in ARAT score per group and for the whole sample. An interaction term was calculated for each baseline neural measure and ARAT score change from baseline to outcome. Results: A total of 288 participants were randomised [mean age 72.2 (standard deviation 12.5) years; mean ARAT score of 25.5 (18.2); n = 283]. For the 240 participants with ARAT measurements at baseline and outcome, the mean change scores were FST + CPT = 9.70 (11.72) and MPT + CPT = 7.90 (9.18). The group difference did not reach statistical significance (least squares mean difference 1.35, 95% confidence interval –1.20 to 3.90; p = 0.298). Correlations between ARAT change scores and baseline neural values ranged from –0.147 (p = 0.385) for whole-sample corticospinal connectivity (n = 37) to 0.199 (p = 0.320) for MPT + CPT resting motor threshold pBB (n = 27). No statistically significant interaction effects were found between baseline neural variables and change in ARAT score. There were no differences between groups in adverse events. Limitations: The number of participants in the embedded explanatory investigation was lower than expected. Conclusions: The small difference in upper limb improvement in response to FST and MPT did not reach statistical significance. Baseline neural measures neither correlated with upper limb recovery nor predicted therapy response. Future work: Needs to continue investigation of the variability of response to specific physical therapies in people early after stroke. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19090862 and National Research Ethics Service reference number 11/EE/0524. Funding: This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research partnership

Genetic correlation of the plasma lipidome with type 2 diabetes, prediabetes and insulin resistance in Mexican American families

Background Differential plasma concentrations of circulating lipid species are associated with pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Whether the wide inter-individual variability in the plasma lipidome contributes to the genetic basis of T2D is unknown. Here, we investigated the potential overlap in the genetic basis of the plasma lipidome and T2D-related traits. Results We used plasma lipidomic data (1202 pedigreed individuals, 319 lipid species representing 23 lipid classes) from San Antonio Family Heart Study in Mexican Americans. Bivariate trait analyses were used to estimate the genetic and environmental correlation of all lipid species with three T2D-related traits: risk of T2D, presence of prediabetes and homeostatic model of assessment – insulin resistance. We found that 44 lipid species were significantly genetically correlated with one or more of the three T2D-related traits. Majority of these lipid species belonged to the diacylglycerol (DAG, 17 species) and triacylglycerol (TAG, 17 species) classes. Six lipid species (all belonging to the triacylglycerol class and containing palmitate at the first position) were significantly genetically correlated with all the T2D-related traits. Conclusions Our results imply that: a) not all plasma lipid species are genetically informative for T2D pathogenesis; b) the DAG and TAG lipid classes partially share genetic basis of T2D; and c) 1-palmitate containing TAGs may provide additional insights into the genetic basis of T2D

Early PREdiction of Severe Sepsis (ExPRES-Sepsis) study: protocol for an observational derivation study to discover potential leucocyte cell surface biomarkers.

INTRODUCTION: Sepsis is an acute illness resulting from infection and the host immune response. Early identification of individuals at risk of developing life-threatening severe sepsis could enable early triage and treatment, and improve outcomes. Currently available biomarkers have poor predictive value for predicting subsequent clinical course in patients with suspected infection. Circulating leucocytes provide readily accessible tissues that reflect many aspects of the complex immune responses described in sepsis. We hypothesise that measuring cellular markers of immune responses by flow cytometry will enable early identification of infected patients at risk of adverse outcomes. We aim to characterise leucocyte surface markers (biomarkers) and their abnormalities in a population of patients presenting to the hospital emergency department with suspected sepsis, and explore their ability to predict subsequent clinical course. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a prospective, multicentre, clinical, exploratory, cohort observational study. To answer our study question, 3 patient populations will be studied. First, patients with suspected sepsis from the emergency department (n=300). To assess performance characteristics of potential tests, critically ill patients with established sepsis, and age and gender matched patients without suspicion of infection requiring hospital admission (both n=100) will be recruited as comparator populations. In all 3 groups, we plan to assess circulating biomarker profiles using flow cytometry. We will select candidate biomarkers by cross-cohort comparison, and then explore their predictive value for clinical outcomes within the cohort with suspected sepsis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study will be carried out based on the principles in the Declaration of Helsinki and the International Conference on Harmonisation Good Clinical Practice. Ethics approval has been granted from the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (REC) and Oxford C REC. On conclusion of this study, the results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02188992; Pre-results

Measuring the impact of maternal critical care admission on short- and longer-term maternal and birth outcomes

PurposeFactors increasing the risk of maternal critical illness are rising in prevalence in maternity populations. Studies of general critical care populations highlight that severe illness is associated with longer-term physical and psychological morbidity. We aimed to compare short- and longer-term outcomes between women who required critical care admission during pregnancy/puerperium and those who did not. MethodsA cohort study including all women delivering in Scottish hospitals between 01/01/2005-31/12/2018, using national healthcare databases. The primary exposure was Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, whilst secondary exposures included High Dependency Unit admission. Outcomes included hospital readmission (1-year post-hospital discharge, 1-year mortality, psychiatric hospital admission, stillbirth and neonatal critical care admission). Multivariable Cox and logistic regression were used to report hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) of association between ICU admission and outcomes. ResultsOf 762,918 deliveries, 1,449 (0.18%) women were admitted to ICU, most commonly due to post-partum haemorrhage (225, 15.5%) followed by eclampsia/pre-eclampsia (133, 9.2%). Over-half (53.8%) required mechanical ventilation. One-year hospital readmission was more frequent in women admitted to ICU compared with non-ICU populations (24.5% (n=299) vs 8.9% (n=68,029)). This association persisted after confounder adjustment (HR=1.93, 95%CI 1.33, 2.81, p&lt;0.001). Furthermore, maternal ICU admission was associated with increased 1-year mortality (HR=40.06, 95%CI 24.04,66.76, p&lt;0.001, stillbirth (OR=12.31, 95%CI 7.95,19.08,p&lt;0.001) and neonatal critical care admission (OR=6.99, 95%CI 5.64 ,8.67, p&lt;0.001) after confounder adjustment. ConclusionCritical care admission increases the risk of adverse short-term and long-term maternal, pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. Optimising long-term post-partum care may benefit maternal critical illness survivors.<br/