Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru

Study region Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving water resource changes. We developed an integrated model that analyzes different trajectories of water availability including hydro-climatic (water supply) and socio-economic (water demand) variables with consistent multi-descriptor future scenarios until 2050. New hydrological insights for the region At the lower-basin outflow of Condorcerro, mean annual water availability is projected to increase by 10% ± 12% by 2050. This gain is mainly driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively, which was computed using a global climate multi-model ensemble. In contrast, mean dry-season water availability is projected to substantially decrease by 33% and 36% ( ± 24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This decline is driven by a combination of diminishing glacier discharge and increasing water demand both of which adopt a major role in the absence of considerable precipitation inputs. These seasonal differences highlight the need to adequately consider spatiotemporal scales within multi-scenario water balance models to support local decision-making. Our results elucidate the need for improvements in water management and infrastructure to counteract diminishing dry-season water availability and to reduce future risks of water scarcity

Teaching Power-Sector Models Social and Political Awareness

Energy-system scenarios are widely used to relate the developments of the energy supply and the resulting carbon-emission pathways to political measures. To enable scenario analyses that adequately capture the variability of renewable-energy resources, a specialised type of power-sector model (PSM) has been developed since the beginning of this century, which uses input data with hourly resolution at the national or subnational levels. These models focus on techno-economic-system optimisation, which needs to be complemented with expert socioeconomic knowledge in order to prevent solutions that may be socially inacceptable or that oppose political goals. A way to integrate such knowledge into energy-system analysis is to use information from framework scenarios with a suitable geographical and technological focus. We propose a novel methodology to link framework scenarios to a PSM by applying complexity-management methods that enable a flexible choice of base scenarios that are tailored to suit different research questions. We explain the methodology, and we illustrate it in a case study that analyses the influence of the socioeconomic development on the European power-system transition until 2050 by linking the power-sector model, REMix (renewable-energy mix), to regional framework scenarios. The suggested approach proves suitable for this purpose, and it enables a clearer link between the impact of political measures and the power-system development

Guiding motives and storylines of the German energy transition: How to systematically integrate stakeholder positions into energy transformation pathways

Transformationspfade zu einem nachhaltigen Energiesystem beruhen meist auf modellbasierten Szenarien. In den Szenarien müssen gesellschaftliche Prozesse und deren Interaktion mit technologischen, ökonomischen und ökologischen Aspekten betrachtet werden. Dies setzt u.a. eine Integration zentraler Stakeholder-Positionen in die Szenarien voraus. Hierzu präsentieren wir Ansätze aus zwei Forschungsprojekten: Der erste Ansatz identifiziert gesellschaftliche Leitmotive der Energiewende und analysiert, in welchen technisch-ökonomischen Transformationspfaden diese realisiert werden können. Der zweite Ansatz setzt auf eine partizipative Entwicklung von Storylines, um eine verbesserte Legitimation und Kommunikation von Transformationspfaden zu erreichen. Wir diskutieren die Herangehensweisen beider Ansätze, die Positionen von Stakeholdern methodisch zu erfassen und mit technisch-ökonomischen Perspektiven zur Energiesystemtransformation zu verknüpfen.Pathways towards sustainable energy transformations are usually premised on model-based scenarios. These scenarios have to incorporate societal dynamics and their interaction with technological, economic, and ecological processes. This also requires the consideration and integration of the stakeholders’ positions into the scenarios. For this purpose, we present two different approaches: the first one identifies the stakeholders’ guiding motives regarding the German energy transition and analyzes how these positions can be realized in technological and economic transformation pathways. In the second approach, storylines are developed in a participatory process with the stakeholders to ensure increased legitimacy and communication of the resulting pathways. For both approaches, we discuss the methodological capture of stakeholder positions and their subsequent integration into energy transformation pathways

Kommunaler Klimaschutz in Baden-Württemberg : Ergebnisse einer Umfrage

Um eine bessere Einschätzung des kommunalen Klimaschutzes im Bundesland Baden-Württemberg und damit eine bessere Ausgangslage für gezielte Hilfestellungen und Anregungen zur Verstärkung des kommunalen Klimaschutzes zu erreichen, hat die Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Zusammenarbeit mit der Klimaschutz- und Energieagentur Baden-Württemberg eine landesweite Fragebogenaktion durchgeführt und ausgewertet. Gleichzeitig soll damit für die Kommunen selbst eine vergleichende Selbsteinschätzung der eigenen Klimaschutzaktivität erleichtert werden

Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’

This paper is the editoral to a special issue which aims at two goals: on the one hand, the roots and conceptualization of the method of socio-technical scenarios will be analysed. On the other hand, two case studies reveal the flexibility of the approach. The case studies will address the German endeavour towards greenhouse gas mitigation as a regional example. The application of the approach itself is not limited to a specific regional context.Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) (4220

Analyse von Rahmenbedingungen für die Integration erneuerbarer Energien in die Strommärkte auf der Basis agentenbasierter Simulation

Vorstellung eines agentenbasierten Modells zur Analyse von Rahmenbedingungen zur Marktintegration erneuerbarer Energie