The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years.#

When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous health improvements on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for a direct effect of health on worker productivity, as well as indirect effects that run through schooling, the size and age-structure of the population, capital accumulation, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics, disease burdens, and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We consider both changes in general health, proxied by improvements in life expectancy, and changes in the prevalence of two particular diseases: malaria and tuberculosis. We find that the effects of health improvements on income per capita are substantially lower than those that are often quoted by policy-makers, and may not emerge at all for three decades or more after the initial improvement in health. The results suggest that proponents of efforts to improve health in developing countries should rely on humanitarian rather than economic arguments.

The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

Roche Lobe Overflow from Dwarf Stellar Systems

We use both analytical analyses and numerical simulations to examine the evolution of residual gas within tidally-limited dwarf galaxies and globular clusters. If the gas sound speed exceeds about 10% of the central velocity dispersion, as is the case for ionized gas within small stellar systems, the gas shall have significant density at the tidal radius, and the gas may be lost on timescales as short as a few times the sound crossing time of the system. In colder systems, the density at the tidal radius is much lower, greatly reducing the mass loss rate, and the system may retain its gas for a Hubble time. The tidally removed gas shall follow an orbit close to that of the original host system, forming an extended stream of ionized, gaseous debris. Tidal mass loss severely limits the ability of dwarf systems to continuously form stars. The ordinary gas content in many dwarf galaxies is fully ionized during high red-shift epochs, possibly preventing star formation in some systems, leading to the formation of starless, dark-matter concentrations. In either the field or in the center of galaxy clusters, ionized gas may be retained by dwarf galaxies, even though its sound speed may be comparable to or even exceed the velocity dispersion. These processes may help to explain some observed differences among dwarf galaxy types, as well as observations of the haloes of massive galaxies.Comment: 28 pages, LaTeX, AASTex macro

An Exact Black Hole Entropy Bound

We show that a Rademacher expansion can be used to establish an exact bound for the entropy of black holes within a conformal field theory framework. This convergent expansion includes all subleading corrections to the Bekenstein-Hawking term.Comment: 6 pages, Latex, v2 minor re-wording, additional reference, to appear in Phyical Review D (title changed in journal

Distribution of localized states from fine analysis of electron spin resonance spectra of organic semiconductors: Physical meaning and methodology

We develop an analytical method for the processing of electron spin resonance (ESR) spectra. The goal is to obtain the distributions of trapped carriers over both their degree of localization and their binding energy in semiconductor crystals or films composed of regularly aligned organic molecules [Phys. Rev. Lett. v. 104, 056602 (2010)]. Our method has two steps. We first carry out a fine analysis of the shape of the ESR spectra due to the trapped carriers; this reveals the distribution of the trap density of the states over the degree of localization. This analysis is based on the reasonable assumption that the linewidth of the trapped carriers is predetermined by their degree of localization because of the hyperfine mechanism. We then transform the distribution over the degree of localization into a distribution over the binding energies. The transformation uses the relationships between the binding energies and the localization parameters of the trapped carriers. The particular relation for the system under study is obtained by the Holstein model for trapped polarons using a diagrammatic Monte Carlo analysis. We illustrate the application of the method to pentacene organic thin-film transistors.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure

Lymphatic Filariasis Control in Tanzania: Effect of Six Rounds of Mass Drug Administration with Ivermectin and Albendazole on Infection and Transmission.

Control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) with a combination of ivermectin and albendazole, in order to interrupt transmission. We present findings from a detailed study on the effect of six rounds of MDA with this drug combination as implemented by the National Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Programme (NLFEP) in a highly endemic rural area of north-eastern Tanzania.\ud The effect of treatment on transmission and human infection was monitored in a community- and a school-based study during an 8-year period (one pre-intervention and 7 post-intervention years) from 2003 to 2011. Before intervention, 24.5% of the community population had microfilariae (mf) in the blood, 53.3% had circulating filarial antigens (CFA) and 78.9% had specific antibodies to the recombinant filarial antigen Bm14. One year after the sixth MDA, these values had decreased considerably to 2.7%, 19.6% and 27.5%, respectively. During the same period, the CFA prevalence among new intakes of Standard 1 pupils in 10 primary schools decreased from 25.2% to 5.6%. In line with this, transmission by the three vectors (Anopheles gambiae, An. funestus and Culex quinquefasciatus) as determined by dissection declined sharply (overall vector infectivity rate by 99.3% and mean monthly transmission potential by 99.2% between pre-intervention and fifth post-intervention period). A major shift in vector species composition, from predominantly anopheline to almost exclusively culicine was observed over the years. This may be largely unrelated to the MDAs but may have important implications for the epidemiology of LF in the area. Six MDAs caused considerable decrease in all the measured indices for transmission and human infection. In spite of this, indices were still relatively high in the late period of the study, and it may take a long time to reach the recommended cut-off levels for interruption of transmission unless extra efforts are made. These should include increased engagement of the target population in the control activities, to ensure higher treatment coverage. It is expected that the recent initiative to distribute insecticide impregnated bed nets to every household in the area will also contribute towards reaching the goal of successful LF elimination