Sting jets in simulations of a real cyclone by two mesoscale models

The existence of sting jets as a potential source of damaging surface winds during the passage of extratropical cyclones has recently been recognized However, there are still very few published studies on the subject Furthermore, although ills known that other models are capable of reproducing sting jets, in the published literature only one numerical model [the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM)] has been used to numerically analyze these phenomena This article alms to improve our understanding of the processes that contribute to the development of sting jets and show that model differences affect the evolution of modeled sting jets A sting jet event during the passage of a cyclone over the United Kingdom on 26 February 2002 has been simulated using two mesoscale models namely the MetUM and the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) model to compare their performance Given the known critical importance of vertical resolution in the simulation of sting jets the vertical resolution of both models has been enhanced with respect to their operational versions Both simulations have been verified against surface measurements of maximum gusts, satellite imagery and Met Office operational synoptic analyses, as well as operational analyses from the ECMWF It is shown that both models are capable of reproducing sting jets with similar, though not identical. features Through the comparison of the results from these two models, the relevance of physical mechanisms, such as evaporative cooling and the release of conditional symmetric instability, in the generation and evolution of sting jets is also discusse

Forecast skill of regional ensemble system compared to the higher resolution deterministic model

The 11 km regional ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption Dynamique Développment InterNational – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) is evaluated by comparison with the 5 km deterministic model ALARO (ALADIN and AROME combined model – Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale), in order to investigate the advantages and disadvantages facing short-range ensemble and high-resolution forecasts. To make rational decisions about the benefits or challenges of both systems, the forecast skill was measured through probabilistic and deterministic approaches over a 2-month period from late spring to summer season of 2013. The verification uses observations from 1219 SYNOP stations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analysis from INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) nowcasting system. The evaluation was carried out for three essential meteorological variables: 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and 6-hour cumulated precipitation. From the probabilistic point of view, the results show that ALADIN-LAEF outperforms ALARO-LAGGED ensemble system, being statistically more reliable. From the deterministic point of view, the high-resolution deterministic system simulates better the precipitation forecast structure with respect to the observations. Compared to the ensemble system, the deterministic system cannot provide guidance concerning the forecast uncertainties or probabilities, making the ensemble products a powerful tool for risk assessment and decision making

Full-Length L1CAM and Not Its Δ2Δ27 Splice Variant Promotes Metastasis through Induction of Gelatinase Expression

Tumour-specific splicing is known to contribute to cancer progression. In the case of the L1 cell adhesion molecule (L1CAM), which is expressed in many human tumours and often linked to bad prognosis, alternative splicing results in a full-length form (FL-L1CAM) and a splice variant lacking exons 2 and 27 (SV-L1CAM). It has not been elucidated so far whether SV-L1CAM, classically considered as tumour-associated, or whether FL-L1CAM is the metastasis-promoting isoform. Here, we show that both variants were expressed in human ovarian carcinoma and that exposure of tumour cells to pro-metastatic factors led to an exclusive increase of FL-L1CAM expression. Selective overexpression of one isoform in different tumour cells revealed that only FL-L1CAM promoted experimental lung and/or liver metastasis in mice. In addition, metastasis formation upon up-regulation of FL-L1CAM correlated with increased invasive potential and elevated Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2 and -9 expression and activity in vitro as well as enhanced gelatinolytic activity in vivo. In conclusion, we identified FL-L1CAM as the metastasis-promoting isoform, thereby exemplifying that high expression of a so-called tumour-associated variant, here SV-L1CAM, is not per se equivalent to a decisive role of this isoform in tumour progression

ALCAM (CD166) Expression and Serum Levels in Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted to evaluate the expression of the activated leukocyte cell adhesion molecule (ALCAM) in pancreatic cancer (PAC) and to determine whether or not the ectodomain shedding of ALCAM (s-ALCAM) could serve as a biomarker in the peripheral blood of PAC patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Tissue specimens and blood sera of patients with PAC (n = 264 and n = 116, respectively) and the sera of 115 patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) were analyzed via ALCAM immunohistochemistry and s-ALCAM ELISA tests. Results were correlated with clinical, histopathological, and patient survival data (Chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier analysis, log-rank test, respectively). RESULTS: ALCAM was expressed in the majority of PAC lesions. Immunohistochemistry and serum ELISA tests revealed no association between ALCAM expression in primary tumors or s-ALCAM and clinical or histopathological data. Neither ALCAM nor s-ALCAM showed a significant impact regarding overall survival (p = 0.261 and p = 0.660, respectively). S-ALCAM serum levels were significantly elevated compared to the sera of CP patients (p<0.001). The sensitivity of s-ALCAM in detecting PAC was 58.6% at a specificity of 73.9% (AUC = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS: ALCAM is expressed in the majority of PAC lesions, but statistical analysis revealed no association with clinical or pathological data. Although significantly elevated in patients with PAC, the sensitivity and specificity of the s-ALCAM serum quantification test was low. Therefore, its potential as a novel diagnostic marker for PAC remains elusive and further investigations are required

Ambient-noise tomography of the wider Vienna Basin region

We present a new 3-D shear-velocity model for the top 30 km of the crust in the wider Vienna Basin region based on surface waves extracted from ambient-noise cross-correlations. We use continuous seismic records of 63 broad-band stations of the AlpArray project to retrieve interstation Green’s functions from ambient-noise cross-correlations in the period range from 5 to 25 s. From these Green’s functions, we measure Rayleigh group traveltimes, utilizing all four components of the cross-correlation tensor, which are associated with Rayleigh waves (ZZ, RR, RZ and ZR), to exploit multiple measurements per station pair. A set of selection criteria is applied to ensure that we use high-quality recordings of fundamental Rayleigh modes. We regionalize the interstation group velocities in a 5 km × 5 km grid with an average path density of ∼20 paths per cell. From the resulting group-velocity maps, we extract local 1-D dispersion curves for each cell and invert all cells independently to retrieve the crustal shear-velocity structure of the study area. The resulting model provides a previously unachieved lateral resolution of seismic velocities in the region of ∼15 km. As major features, we image the Vienna Basin and Little Hungarian Plain as low-velocity anomalies, and the Bohemian Massif with high velocities. The edges of these features are marked with prominent velocity contrasts correlated with faults, such as the Alpine Front and Vienna Basin transfer fault system. The observed structures correlate well with surface geology, gravitational anomalies and the few known crystalline basement depths from boreholes. For depths larger than those reached by boreholes, the new model allows new insight into the complex structure of the Vienna Basin and surrounding areas, including deep low-velocity zones, which we image with previously unachieved detail. This model may be used in the future to interpret the deeper structures and tectonic evolution of the wider Vienna Basin region, evaluate natural resources, model wave propagation and improve earthquake locations, among others

Arrival angles of teleseismic fundamental mode Rayleigh waves across the AlpArray

The dense AlpArray network allows studying seismic wave propagation with high spatial resolution. Here we introduce an array approach to measure arrival angles of teleseismic Rayleigh waves. The approach combines the advantages of phase correlation as in the two-station method with array beamforming to obtain the phase-velocity vector. 20 earthquakes from the first two years of the AlpArray project are selected, and spatial patterns of arrival-angle deviations across the AlpArray are shown in maps, depending on period and earthquake location. The cause of these intriguing spatial patterns is discussed. A simple wave-propagation modelling example using an isolated anomaly and a Gaussian beam solution suggests that much of the complexity can be explained as a result of wave interference after passing a structural anomaly along the wave paths. This indicates that arrival-angle information constitutes useful additional information on the Earth structure, beyond what is currently used in inversions

Shear-wave velocity structure beneath the Dinarides from the inversion of Rayleigh-wave dispersion

Highlights • Rayleigh-wave phase velocity in the wider Dinarides region using the two-station method. • Uppermost mantle shear-wave velocity model of the Dinarides-Adriatic Sea region. • Velocity model reveals a robust high-velocity anomaly present under the whole Dinarides. • High-velocity anomaly reaches depth of 160 km in the northern Dinarides to more than 200 km under southern Dinarides. • New structural model incorporating delamination as one of the processes controlling the continental collision in the Dinarides. The interaction between the Adriatic microplate (Adria) and Eurasia is the main driving factor in the central Mediterranean tectonics. Their interplay has shaped the geodynamics of the whole region and formed several mountain belts including Alps, Dinarides and Apennines. Among these, Dinarides are the least investigated and little is known about the underlying geodynamic processes. There are numerous open questions about the current state of interaction between Adria and Eurasia under the Dinaric domain. One of the most interesting is the nature of lithospheric underthrusting of Adriatic plate, e.g. length of the slab or varying slab disposition along the orogen. Previous investigations have found a low-velocity zone in the uppermost mantle under the northern-central Dinarides which was interpreted as a slab gap. Conversely, several newer studies have indicated the presence of the continuous slab under the Dinarides with no trace of the low velocity zone. Thus, to investigate the Dinaric mantle structure further, we use regional-to-teleseismic surface-wave records from 98 seismic stations in the wider Dinarides region to create a 3D shear-wave velocity model. More precisely, a two-station method is used to extract Rayleigh-wave phase velocity while tomography and 1D inversion of the phase velocity are employed to map the depth dependent shear-wave velocity. Resulting velocity model reveals a robust high-velocity anomaly present under the whole Dinarides, reaching the depths of 160 km in the north to more than 200 km under southern Dinarides. These results do not agree with most of the previous investigations and show continuous underthrusting of the Adriatic lithosphere under Europe along the whole Dinaric region. The geometry of the down-going slab varies from the deeper slab in the north and south to the shallower underthrusting in the center. On-top of both north and south slabs there is a low-velocity wedge indicating lithospheric delamination which could explain the 200 km deep high-velocity body existing under the southern Dinarides

Crustal Thinning From Orogen to Back-Arc Basin: The Structure of the Pannonian Basin Region Revealed by P-to-S Converted Seismic Waves

We present the results of P-to-S receiver function analysis to improve the 3D image of the sedimentary layer, the upper crust, and lower crust in the Pannonian Basin area. The Pannonian Basin hosts deep sedimentary depocentres superimposed on a complex basement structure and it is surrounded by mountain belts. We processed waveforms from 221 three-component broadband seismological stations. As a result of the dense station coverage, we were able to achieve so far unprecedented spatial resolution in determining the velocity structure of the crust. We applied a three-fold quality control process; the first two being applied to the observed waveforms and the third to the calculated radial receiver functions. This work is the first comprehensive receiver function study of the entire region. To prepare the inversions, we performed station-wise H-Vp/Vs grid search, as well as Common Conversion Point migration. Our main focus was then the S-wave velocity structure of the area, which we determined by the Neighborhood Algorithm inversion method at each station, where data were sub-divided into back-azimuthal bundles based on similar Ps delay times. The 1D, nonlinear inversions provided the depth of the discontinuities, shear-wave velocities and Vp/Vs ratios of each layer per bundle, and we calculated uncertainty values for each of these parameters. We then developed a 3D interpolation method based on natural neighbor interpolation to obtain the 3D crustal structure from the local inversion results. We present the sedimentary thickness map, the first Conrad depth map and an improved, detailed Moho map, as well as the first upper and lower crustal thickness maps obtained from receiver function analysis. The velocity jump across the Conrad discontinuity is estimated at less than 0.2 km/s over most of the investigated area. We also compare the new Moho map from our approach to simple grid search results and prior knowledge from other techniques. Our Moho depth map presents local variations in the investigated area: the crust-mantle boundary is at 20–26 km beneath the sedimentary basins, while it is situated deeper below the Apuseni Mountains, Transdanubian and North Hungarian Ranges (28–33 km), and it is the deepest beneath the Eastern Alps and the Southern Carpathians (40–45 km). These values reflect well the Neogene evolution of the region, such as crustal thinning of the Pannonian Basin and orogenic thickening in the neighboring mountain belts

Meteorological factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions explain local differences in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austria

The drivers behind regional differences of SARS-CoV-2 spread on finer spatio-temporal scales are yet to be fully understood. Here we develop a data-driven modelling approach based on an age-structured compartmental model that compares 116 Austrian regions to a suitably chosen control set of regions to explain variations in local transmission rates through a combination of meteorological factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions and mobility. We find that more than 60% of the observed regional variations can be explained by these factors. Decreasing temperature and humidity, increasing cloudiness, precipitation and the absence of mitigation measures for public events are the strongest drivers for increased virus transmission, leading in combination to a doubling of the transmission rates compared to regions with more favourable weather. We conjecture that regions with little mitigation measures for large events that experience shifts toward unfavourable weather conditions are particularly predisposed as nucleation points for the next seasonal SARS-CoV-2 waves

Precise chemical, electronic, and magnetic structure of binuclear complexes studied by means of X-ray spectroscopies and theoretical methods

We investigate two planar complexes MnNi and CoNi (see Scheme 1) by X-ray photoelec- tron spectroscopy (XPS) and ultralow-temperature X-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD). In this way the valence states as well as the presence of uncompensated magnetic moments are obtained. The magnetism has been probed at a temperature of 0.6 K in order to reveal the magnetic ground state properties. We find that divalent Ni ions are in a diamagnetic low spin ground state in both complexes; however, in MnNi a small fraction of divalent nickel high-spin ions leads to a residual XMCD signal, indicating parallel spin alignment with the Mn spins. Mn and Co are found to be in a divalent high-spin configuration in both compounds. Theoretically, we address the energetic ordering of the different possible spin states of the binuclear complexes using (zeroth-order) relativistic approximation density functional calculations and a triple-&zeta; quality basis set. These results show that intermediate-spin states are often favored over low-spin states for most both metal combinations, in qualitative agreement with our experimental observations