BSHAP seismic source characterization models for the Western Balkan region

This manuscript presents the seismic source characterization models that were developed and used for the Western Balkan region in the framework of Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP II) funded by NATO-Science for Peace and Security Program. Relevant knowledge about the geological and seismotectonic structure of Western Balkans and surrounding region was collected and utilized along with the BSHAP focal mechanism database and the BSHAP earthquake catalogue (Markusic et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 14(2): 321-343, 2016. doi: 10.1007/s10518015- 9833-z) to delineate seismic source models for different purposes. The super zone model of large zones bounds the regions with similar seismotectonic characteristics and catalogue completeness levels and was used for calculating the regional b-value of the magnitude recurrence relationship. Additionally, two models of smaller zones that represent the epistemic uncertainty in source geometry, maximum magnitude and style-of-faulting, were developed to be employed in the two-stage (circular and elliptical) smoothing procedure. Sets of sensitivity analyses are performed to support final estimates of some models' parameters affecting the smoothed seismicity rate. The seismic source models and the logic-tree presented here are to be implemented in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan region

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10.1038/s41586-021-03287-8Nature592785