Identification and evaluation of risk of generalizability biases in pilot versus efficacy/effectiveness trials: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Preliminary evaluations of behavioral interventions, referred to as pilot studies, predate the conduct of many large-scale efficacy/effectiveness trial. The ability of a pilot study to inform an efficacy/effectiveness trial relies on careful considerations in the design, delivery, and interpretation of the pilot results to avoid exaggerated early discoveries that may lead to subsequent failed efficacy/effectiveness trials. “Risk of generalizability biases (RGB)” in pilot studies may reduce the probability of replicating results in a larger efficacy/effectiveness trial. We aimed to generate an operational list of potential RGBs and to evaluate their impact in pairs of published pilot studies and larger, more well-powered trial on the topic of childhood obesity. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review to identify published pilot studies that had a published larger-scale trial of the same or similar intervention. Searches were updated and completed through December 31st, 2018. Eligible studies were behavioral interventions involving youth (≤18 yrs) on a topic related to childhood obesity (e.g., prevention/treatment, weight reduction, physical activity, diet, sleep, screen time/sedentary behavior). Extracted information included study characteristics and all outcomes. A list of 9 RGBs were defined and coded: intervention intensity bias, implementation support bias, delivery agent bias, target audience bias, duration bias, setting bias, measurement bias, directional conclusion bias, and outcome bias. Three reviewers independently coded for the presence of RGBs. Multi-level random effects meta-analyses were performed to investigate the association of the biases to study outcomes. Results: A total of 39 pilot and larger trial pairs were identified. The frequency of the biases varied: delivery agent bias (19/39 pairs), duration bias (15/39), implementation support bias (13/39), outcome bias (6/39), measurement bias (4/39), directional conclusion bias (3/39), target audience bias (3/39), intervention intensity bias (1/39), and setting bias (0/39). In meta-analyses, delivery agent, implementation support, duration, and measurement bias were associated with an attenuation of the effect size of − 0.325 (95CI − 0.556 to − 0.094), − 0.346 (− 0.640 to − 0.052), − 0.342 (− 0.498 to − 0.187), and − 0.360 (− 0.631 to − 0.089), respectively. Conclusions Pre-emptive avoidance of RGBs during the initial testing of an intervention may diminish the voltage drop between pilot and larger efficacy/effectiveness trials and enhance the odds of successful translation

Sea-level constraints on the amplitude and source distribution of Meltwater Pulse 1A.

During the last deglaciation, sea levels rose as ice sheets retreated. This climate transition was punctuated by periods of more intense melting; the largest and most rapid of these—Meltwater Pulse 1A—occurred about 14,500 years ago, with rates of sea-level rise reaching approximately 4 m per century1, 2, 3. Such rates of rise suggest ice-sheet instability, but the meltwater sources are poorly constrained, thus limiting our understanding of the causes and impacts of the event4, 5, 6, 7. In particular, geophysical modelling studies constrained by tropical sea-level records1, 8, 9 suggest an Antarctic contribution of more than seven metres, whereas most reconstructions10 from Antarctica indicate no substantial change in ice-sheet volume around the time of Meltwater Pulse 1A. Here we use a glacial isostatic adjustment model to reinterpret tropical sea-level reconstructions from Barbados2, the Sunda Shelf3 and Tahiti1. According to our results, global mean sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A was between 8.6 and 14.6 m (95% probability). As for the melt partitioning, we find an allowable contribution from Antarctica of either 4.1 to 10.0 m or 0 to 6.9 m (95% probability), using two recent estimates11, 12 of the contribution from the North American ice sheets. We conclude that with current geologic constraints, the method applied here is unable to support or refute the possibility of a significant Antarctic contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A

Evaluating the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the 'strengthening families, strengthening communities' group-based parenting programme: study protocol and initial insights

BACKGROUND: Up to 20% of UK children experience socio-emotional difficulties which can have serious implications for themselves, their families and society. Stark socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in children's well-being exist. Supporting parents to develop effective parenting skills is an important preventive strategy in reducing inequalities. Parenting interventions have been developed, which aim to reduce the severity and impact of these difficulties. However, most parenting interventions in the UK focus on early childhood (0-10 years) and often fail to engage families from ethnic minority groups and those living in poverty. Strengthening Families, Strengthening Communities (SFSC) is a parenting programme designed by the Race Equality Foundation, which aims to address this gap. Evidence from preliminary studies is encouraging, but no randomised controlled trials have been undertaken so far. METHODS/DESIGN: The TOGETHER study is a multi-centre, waiting list controlled, randomised trial, which aims to test the effectiveness of SFSC in families with children aged 3-18 across seven urban areas in England with ethnically and socially diverse populations. The primary outcome is parental mental well-being (assessed by the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale). Secondary outcomes include child socio-emotional well-being, parenting practices, family relationships, self-efficacy, quality of life, and community engagement. Outcomes are assessed at baseline, post intervention, three- and six-months post intervention. Cost effectiveness will be estimated using a cost-utility analysis and cost-consequences analysis. The study is conducted in two stages. Stage 1 comprised a 6-month internal pilot to determine the feasibility of the trial. A set of progression criteria were developed to determine whether the stage 2 main trial should proceed. An embedded process evaluation will assess the fidelity and acceptability of the intervention. DISCUSSION: In this paper we provide details of the study protocol for this trial. We also describe challenges to implementing the protocol and how these were addressed. Once completed, if beneficial effects on both parental and child outcomes are found, the impact, both immediate and longer term, are potentially significant. As the intervention focuses on supporting families living in poverty and those from minority ethnic communities, the intervention should also ultimately have a beneficial impact on reducing health inequalities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospectively registered Randomised Controlled Trial ISRCTN15194500

Protection against Divergent Influenza H1N1 Virus by a Centralized Influenza Hemagglutinin

Influenza poses a persistent worldwide threat to the human population. As evidenced by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, current vaccine technologies are unable to respond rapidly to this constantly diverging pathogen. We tested the utility of adenovirus (Ad) vaccines expressing centralized consensus influenza antigens. Ad vaccines were produced within 2 months and protected against influenza in mice within 3 days of vaccination. Ad vaccines were able to protect at doses as low as 107 virus particles/kg indicating that approximately 1,000 human doses could be rapidly generated from standard Ad preparations. To generate broadly cross-reactive immune responses, centralized consensus antigens were constructed against H1 influenza and against H1 through H5 influenza. Twenty full-length H1 HA sequences representing the main branches of the H1 HA phylogenetic tree were used to create a synthetic centralized gene, HA1-con. HA1-con minimizes the degree of sequence dissimilarity between the vaccine and existing circulating viruses. The centralized H1 gene, HA1-con, induced stronger immune responses and better protection against mismatched virus challenges as compared to two wildtype H1 genes. HA1-con protected against three genetically diverse lethal influenza challenges. When mice were challenged with 1934 influenza A/PR/8/34, HA1-con protected 100% of mice while vaccine generated from 2009 A/TX/05/09 only protected 40%. Vaccination with 1934 A/PR/8/34 and 2009 A/TX/05/09 protected 60% and 20% against 1947 influenza A/FM/1/47, respectively, whereas 80% of mice vaccinated with HA1-con were protected. Notably, 80% of mice challenged with 2009 swine flu isolate A/California/4/09 were protected by HA1-con vaccination. These data show that HA1-con in Ad has potential as a rapid and universal vaccine for H1N1 influenza viruses

Abatement costs of alternative tax systems to regulate agricultural nitrogen loss

Nitrogen emissions from agriculture are considered an important environmental problem in Denmark motivating consideration of different tax schemes as regulatory instruments. In this paper, input/output behaviour of Danish pig farmers is estimated with farm level panel data using the dual profit function approach, and emission functions for nitrogen loss are derived. With the estimated model we are able to compare cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive Pigouvian tax on nitrogen loss with simpler tax schemes that focus on nitrogen use. We find that both a fertilizer tax and a feed tax generate substantially higher abatement costs than Pigouvian incentives. A tax on nitrogen in all inputs will, on the other hand, only generate a marginal increase in abatement costs. These results are of interest because a tax on all nitrogen inputs is easier to implement than a comprehensive nitrogen loss tax. Our result implies that even a limited administrative cost advantage may make the input tax preferable to implementing Pigouvian incentives through an nitrogen loss tax

Heated indoor swimming pools, infants, and the pathogenesis of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a neurogenic hypothesis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In a case-control study a statistically significant association was recorded between the introduction of infants to heated indoor swimming pools and the development of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). In this paper, a neurogenic hypothesis is formulated to explain how toxins produced by chlorine in such pools may act deleteriously on the infant's immature central nervous system, comprising brain and spinal cord, to produce the deformity of AIS.</p> <p>Presentation of the hypothesis</p> <p>Through vulnerability of the developing central nervous system to circulating toxins, and because of delayed epigenetic effects, the trunk deformity of AIS does not become evident until adolescence. In mature healthy swimmers using such pools, the circulating neurotoxins detected are chloroform, bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane, and bromoform. Cyanogen chloride and dichloroacetonitrile have also been detected.</p> <p>Testing the hypothesis</p> <p>In infants, the putative portals of entry to the blood could be dermal, oral, or respiratory; and entry of such circulating small molecules to the brain are via the blood-brain barrier, blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier, and circumventricular organs. Barrier mechanisms of the developing brain differ from those of adult brain and have been linked to brain development. During the first 6 months of life cerebrospinal fluid contains higher concentrations of specific proteins relative to plasma, attributed to mechanisms continued from fetal brain development rather than immaturity.</p> <p>Implications of the hypothesis</p> <p>The hypothesis can be tested. If confirmed, there is potential to prevent some children from developing AIS.</p

First-principles study of illite-smectite and implications for clay mineral systems

Illite-smectite interstratified clay minerals are ubiquitous in sedimentary basins and they have been linked to the maturation, migration and trapping of hydrocarbons(1), rock cementation(2), evolution of porewater chemistry during diagenesis(3) and the development of pore pressure(4). But, despite the importance of these clays, their structures are controversial. Two competing models exist, each with profoundly different consequences for the understanding of diagenetic processes: model A views such interstratified clays as a stacking of layers identical to endmember illite and smectite layers, implying discrete and independently formed units (fundamental particles)(5), whereas model B views the clays as composed of crystallites with a unique structure that maintains coherency over much greater distances, in line with local charge balance about interlayers(6). Here we use first-principles density-functional theory to explore the energetics and structures of these two models for an illite-smectite interstratified clay mineral with a ratio of 1:1 and a Reichweite parameter of 1. We find that the total energy of model B is 2.3 kJ atom(-1) mol(-1) lower than that of model A, and that this energy difference can be traced to structural distortions in model A due to local charge imbalance. The greater stability of model B requires re-evaluation of the evolution of the smectite-to-illite sequence of clay minerals, including the nature of coexisting species, stability relations, growth mechanisms and the model of fundamental particles.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62760/1/nature01155.pd

Identification of Amino Acids Essential for Estrone-3-Sulfate Transport within Transmembrane Domain 2 of Organic Anion Transporting Polypeptide 1B1

As an important structure in membrane proteins, transmembrane domains have been found to be crucial for properly targeting the protein to cell membrane as well as carrying out transport functions in transporters. Computer analysis of OATP sequences revealed transmembrane domain 2 (TM2) is among those transmembrane domains that have high amino acid identities within different family members. In the present study, we identify four amino acids (Asp70, Phe73, Glu74, and Gly76) that are essential for the transport function of OATP1B1, an OATP member that is specifically expressed in the human liver. A substitution of these four amino acids with alanine resulted in significantly reduced transport activity. Further mutagenesis showed the charged property of Asp70 and Glu74 is critical for proper function of the transporter protein. Comparison of the kinetic parameters indicated that Asp70 is likely to interact with the substrate while Glu74 may be involved in stabilizing the binding site through formation of a salt-bridge. The aromatic ring structure of Phe73 seems to play an important role because substitution of Phe73 with tyrosine, another amino acid with a similar structure, led to partially restored transport function. On the other hand, replacement of Gly76 with either alanine or valine could not recover the function of the transporter. Considering the nature of a transmembrane helix, we proposed that Gly76 may be important for maintaining the proper structure of the protein. Interestingly, when subjected to transport function analysis of higher concentration of esteone-3-sulfate (50 µM) that corresponds to the low affinity binding site of OATP1B1, mutants of Phe73, Glu74, and Gly76 all showed a transport function that is comparable to that of the wild-type, suggesting these amino acids may have less impact on the low affinity component of esteone-3-sulfate within OATP1B1, while Asp 70 seems to be involved in the interaction of both sites