Survey Expectations

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations.Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectationsrather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectationsare reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper thenprovides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting

Survey Expectations

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.models of expectations formation, survey data, heterogeneity, tests of rational expectations

What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?

AbstractThe impact of announcements of large-scale purchases of government bonds on real GDP and the CPI in the United Kingdom and the United States is explored with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2009M3 to 2014M5. Four different identification schemes are used, all leaving the reactions of GDP and CPI unrestricted, and the transmission channels of the policy are examined. An asset purchase announcement of 1% of GDP leads to a statistically significant rise of 0.58% (0.25%) and 0.62% (0.32%) rise in real GDP and CPI for the US (UK). The transmission channels differ in the two countries

Intergenerational and interethnic mental health: an analysis for the United Kingdom

This paper uses a nationally representative data set to examine the extent to which family migration history helps explains inter-ethnic variations in mental health in the UK. We confirm that there is significant variation in mental health across ethnic group and generation of migration. Furthermore, we show how these dimensions interact. The analysis explores the extent to which neighbourhood, personal characteristics and migration experience are related to mental health. We find evidence that all are important. Our results are consistent with a dynamic view of migration and settlement whereby individuals' circumstances and how they might contribute to mental health change over time and across generations

Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period

Role of Protein Flexibility in Ion Permeation: A Case Study in Gramicidin A

AbstractProteins have a flexible structure, and their atoms exhibit considerable fluctuations under normal operating conditions. However, apart from some enzyme reactions involving ligand binding, our understanding of the role of flexibility in protein function remains mostly incomplete. Here we investigate this question in the realm of membrane proteins that form ion channels. Specifically, we consider ion permeation in the gramicidin A channel, and study how the energetics of ion conduction changes as the channel structure is progressively changed from completely flexible to a fixed one. For each channel structure, the potential of mean force for a permeating potassium ion is determined from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Using the same molecular dynamics data for completely flexible gramicidin A, we also calculate the average densities and fluctuations of the peptide atoms and investigate the correlations between these fluctuations and the motion of a permeating ion. Our results show conclusively that peptide flexibility plays an important role in ion permeation in the gramicidin A channel, thus providing another reason—besides the well-known problem with the description of single file pore water—why this channel cannot be modeled using continuum electrostatics with a fixed structure. The new method developed here for studying the role of protein flexibility on its function clarifies the contributions of the fluctuations to energy and entropy, and places limits on the level of detail required in a coarse-grained model

Microvascular resistance predicts myocardial salvage and infarct characteristics in ST-elevation myocardial infarction

<b>Background:</b> The pathophysiology of myocardial injury and repair in patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction is incompletely understood. We investigated the relationships among culprit artery microvascular resistance, myocardial salvage, and ventricular function.<p></p> <b>Methods and Results:</b> The index of microvascular resistance (IMR) was measured by means of a pressure‐ and temperature‐sensitive coronary guidewire in 108 patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (83% male) at the end of primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Paired cardiac MRI (cardiac magnetic resonance) scans were performed early (2 days; n=108) and late (3 months; n=96) after myocardial infarction. T2‐weighted‐ and late gadolinium–enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance delineated the ischemic area at risk and infarct size, respectively. Myocardial salvage was calculated by subtracting infarct size from area at risk. Univariable and multivariable models were constructed to determine the impact of IMR on cardiac magnetic resonance–derived surrogate outcomes. The median (interquartile range) IMR was 28 (17–42) mm Hg/s. The median (interquartile range) area at risk was 32% (24%–41%) of left ventricular mass, and the myocardial salvage index was 21% (11%–43%). IMR was a significant multivariable predictor of early myocardial salvage, with a multiplicative effect of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.92) per 20% increase in IMR; P<0.001. In patients with anterior myocardial infarction, IMR was a multivariable predictor of early and late myocardial salvage, with multiplicative effects of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.90; P<0.001) and 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.96; P<0.001), respectively. IMR also predicted the presence and extent of microvascular obstruction and myocardial hemorrhage.<p></p> <b>Conclusion:</b> Microvascular resistance measured during primary percutaneous coronary intervention significantly predicts myocardial salvage, infarct characteristics, and left ventricular ejection fraction in patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction.<p></p&gt

Discrepancy in clinical outcomes of patients with gunshot wounds in car hijacking: a South African experience

INTRODUCTION: Discrepancy in outcomes between urban and rural trauma patients is well known. We reviewed our institutional experience with the management of gunshot wounds (GSWs) in the specific setting of car hijacking and focused on clinical outcome between rural and urban patients. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted at a major trauma centre in South Africa over an 8-year period for all patients who presented with any form of GSWs in car hijacking settings. Specific clinical outcomes were compared between rural and urban patients. RESULTS: A total of 101 patients were included (74% male, mean age 34 years). Fifty-five per cent were injured in rural areas and the remaining 45% (45/101) were in the urban district. Mean time from injury to arrival at our trauma centre was 11 hours for rural and 4 hours for urban patients (p < 0.001). Seventy-six per cent (76/101) sustained GSWs to multiple body regions. Sixty-three of the 101 (62%) patients required one or more operative interventions. In individual logistic regressions adjusted for sex and number of regions injured, rural patients were 9 (95% CI: 1.9-44.4) and 7 (95% CI: 2.124.5) times more likely than urban patients to have morbidities or required admissions to intensive care respectively. The risk of death in rural patients was 36 (95% CI: 4.5-284.6) times higher than that of urban patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who sustained GSWs in carjacking incidents that occurred in rural areas are associated with significantly greater morbidity and mortality compared with their urban counterparts. Delay to definitive care is likely to be the significant contributory factor, and improvement in prehospital emergency medical service is likely to be beneficial in improving patient outcome

Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation

Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action 1 , 2 . We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation

Motion-corrected multiparametric renal arterial spin labelling at 3T: Reproducibility and effect of vasodilator challenge

Objectives We investigated the feasibility and reproducibility of free-breathing motion-corrected multiple inversion time (multi-TI) pulsed renal arterial spin labelling (PASL), with general kinetic model parametric mapping, to simultaneously quantify renal perfusion (RBF), bolus arrival time (BAT) and tissue T1. Methods In a study approved by the Health Research Authority, 12 healthy volunteers (mean age, 27.6 ± 18.5 years; 5 male) gave informed consent for renal imaging at 3 T using multi-TI ASL and conventional single-TI ASL. Glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) was used as a vasodilator challenge in six subjects. Flow-sensitive alternating inversion recovery (FAIR) preparation was used with background suppression and 3D-GRASE (gradient and spin echo) read-out, and images were motion-corrected. Parametric maps of RBF, BAT and T1 were derived for both kidneys. Agreement was assessed using Pearson correlation and Bland-Altman plots. Results Inter-study correlation of whole-kidney RBF was good for both single-TI (r2 = 0.90), and multi-TI ASL (r2 = 0.92). Single-TI ASL gave a higher estimate of whole-kidney RBF compared to multi-TI ASL (mean bias, 29.3 ml/min/100 g; p <0.001). Using multi-TI ASL, the median T1 of renal cortex was shorter than that of medulla (799.6 ms vs 807.1 ms, p = 0.01), and mean whole-kidney BAT was 269.7 ± 56.5 ms. GTN had an effect on systolic blood pressure (p < 0.05) but the change in RBF was not significant. Conclusions Free-breathing multi-TI renal ASL is feasible and reproducible at 3 T, providing simultaneous measurement of renal perfusion, haemodynamic parameters and tissue characteristics at baseline and during pharmacological challenge