Satellite Earth observation to support sustainable rural development

Traditional survey and census data are not sufficient for measuring poverty and progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Satellite Earth Observation (EO) is a novel data source that has considerable potential to augment data for sustainable rural development. To realise the full potential of EO data as a proxy for socioeconomic conditions, end-users – both expert and non-expert – must be able to make the right decisions about what data to use and how to use it. In this review, we present an outline of what needs to be done to operationalise, and increase confidence in, EO data for sustainable rural development and monitoring the socioeconomic targets of the SDGs. We find that most approaches developed so far operate at a single spatial scale, for a single point in time, and proxy only one socioeconomic metric. Moreover, research has been geographically focused across three main regions: West Africa, East Africa, and the Indian Subcontinent, which underscores a need to conduct research into the utility of EO for monitoring poverty across more regions, to identify transferable EO proxies and methods. A variety of data from different EO platforms have been integrated into such analyses, with Landsat and MODIS datasets proving to be the most utilised to-date. Meanwhile, there is an apparent underutilisation of fusion capabilities with disparate datasets, in terms of (i) other EO datasets such as RADAR data, and (ii) non-traditional datasets such as geospatial population layers. We identify five key areas requiring further development to encourage operational uptake of EO for proxying socioeconomic conditions and conclude by linking these with the technical and implementational challenges identified across the review to make explicit recommendations. This review contributes towards developing transparent data systems to assemble the high-quality data required to monitor socioeconomic conditions across rural spaces at fine temporal and spatial scales

Detecting Vietnam War bomb craters in declassified historical KH-9 satellite imagery

Thousands of people are injured every year from explosive remnants of war which include unexploded ordnance (UXO) and abandoned ordnance. UXO has negative long-term impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems in contaminated areas. Exact locations of remaining UXO are often unknown as survey and clearance activities can be dangerous, expensive and time-consuming. In Vietnam, Lao PDR and Cambodia, about 20% of the land remains contaminated by UXO from the Vietnam War. Recently declassified historical KH-9 satellite imagery, taken during and immediately after the Vietnam War, now provides an opportunity to map this remaining contamination. KH-9 imagery was acquired and orthorectified for two study areas in Southeast Asia. Bomb craters were manually labeled in a subset of the imagery to train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for automated crater detection. The CNNs achieved a F1-Score of 0.61 and identified more than 500,000 bomb craters across the two study areas. The detected craters provided more precise information on the impact locations of bombs than target locations available from declassified U.S. bombing records. This could allow for a more precise localization of suspected hazardous areas during non-technical surveys as well as a more fine-grained determination of residual risk of UXO. The method is directly transferable to other areas in Southeast Asia and is cost-effective due to the low cost of the KH-9 imagery and the use of open-source software. The results also show the potential of integrating crater detection into data-driven decision making in mine action across more recent conflicts

Census-Independent Population Estimation using Representation Learning

Knowledge of population distribution is critical for building infrastructure, distributing resources, and monitoring the progress of sustainable development goals. Although censuses can provide this information, they are typically conducted every 10 years with some countries having forgone the process for several decades. Population can change in the intercensal period due to rapid migration, development, urbanisation, natural disasters, and conflicts. Census-independent population estimation approaches using alternative data sources, such as satellite imagery, have shown promise in providing frequent and reliable population estimates locally. Existing approaches, however, require significant human supervision, for example annotating buildings and accessing various public datasets, and therefore, are not easily reproducible. We explore recent representation learning approaches, and assess the transferability of representations to population estimation in Mozambique. Using representation learning reduces required human supervision, since features are extracted automatically, making the process of population estimation more sustainable and likely to be transferable to other regions or countries. We compare the resulting population estimates to existing population products from GRID3, Facebook (HRSL) and WorldPop. We observe that our approach matches the most accurate of these maps, and is interpretable in the sense that it recognises built-up areas to be an informative indicator of population

Agricultural shocks and drivers of livelihood precariousness across Indian rural communities

Spatial factors, such as environmental conditions, distance to natural resources and access to services can influence the impacts of climate change on rural household livelihood activities. But neither the determinants of precarious livelihoods nor their spatial context has been well understood. This paper investigates the drivers of livelihood precariousness using a place-based approach. We identify five community types in rural regions of the Mahanadi Delta, India; exurban, agro-industrial, rainfed agriculture, irrigated agriculture and resource periphery by clustering three types of community capitals (natural, social and physical). Based on this typology, we characterise the associations between precarious livelihood activities (unemployment or engagement in agricultural labour) with agricultural shocks and household capitals. Results demonstrate that, the type of community influences the impact of agricultural shocks on livelihoods as four of the five community types had increased likelihoods of precarious livelihoods being pursued when agricultural shocks increased. Our research demonstrates that the bundle of locally available community capitals influences households' coping strategies and livelihood opportunities. For example, higher levels of physical capital were associated with a lower likelihood of precarious livelihoods in agro-industrial communities but had no significant impact in the other four. Results also indicate that agricultural shocks drive livelihood precariousness (odds ratios between 1.03 and 1.07) for all but the best-connected communities, while access to household capitals tends to reduce it. Our results suggest that poverty alleviation programmes should include community typologies in their approach to provide place-specific interventions that would strengthen context-specific household capitals, thus reducing livelihood precariousness

Using open-source data to construct 20 metre resolution maps of children’s travel time to the nearest health facility

Physical access to health facilities is an important factor in determining treatment seeking behaviour and has implications for targets within the Sustainable Development Goals, including the right to health. The increased availability of high-resolution land cover and road data from satellite imagery offers opportunities for fine-grained estimations of physical access which can support delivery planning through the provision of more realistic estimates of travel times. The data presented here is of travel time to health facilities in Uganda, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Mozambique. Travel times have been calculated for different facility types in each country such as Dispensaries, Health Centres, Clinics and Hospitals. Cost allocation surfaces and travel times are provided for child walking speeds but can be altered easily to account for adult walking speeds and motorised transport. With a focus on Uganda, we describe the data and method and provide the travel maps, software and intermediate datasets for Uganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Mozambique

Earth observation and geospatial data can predict the relative distribution of village level poverty in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India

There is increasing interest in leveraging Earth Observation (EO) and geospatial data to predict and map aspects of socioeconomic conditions to support survey and census activities. This is particularly relevant for the frequent monitoring required to assess progress towards the UNs' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR) is a region of international ecological importance, containing the Indian portion of the world's largest mangrove forest. The region is densely populated and home to over 4.4 million people, many living in chronic poverty with a strong dependence on nature-based rural livelihoods. Such livelihoods are vulnerable to frequent natural hazards including cyclone landfall and storm surges. In this study we examine associations between environmental variables derived from EO and geospatial data with a village level multidimensional poverty metric using random forest machine learning, to provide evidence in support of policy formulation in the field of poverty reduction. We find that environmental variables can predict up to 78% of the relative distribution of the poorest villages within the SBR. Exposure to cyclone hazard was the most important variable for prediction of poverty. The poorest villages were associated with relatively small areas of rural settlement (&lt;∼30%), large areas of agricultural land (&gt;∼50%) and moderate to high cyclone hazard. The poorest villages were also associated with less productive agricultural land than the wealthiest. Analysis suggests villages with access to more diverse livelihood options, and a smaller dependence on agriculture may be more resilient to cyclone hazard. This study contributes to the understanding of poverty-environment dynamics within Low-and middle-income countries and the associations found can inform policy linked to socio-environmental scenarios within the SBR and potentially support monitoring of work towards SDG1 (No Poverty) across the region.</p

Quantifying livestock diet compositions in Kenyan smallholder farms

Summary of ongoing PhD research presented as a poster at the University of Edinburgh Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems Symposium, 15 March 202