A feasibility study for improving Uganda's water to drinkable standards: lessons from Kampala

An enthusiastic global campaign on intervention in water in the Lower Income Countries (LICs) was launched by the UN at the International Conference on Water and the Environment (ICEW), in Rio de Janerio, in January of 1992. In June of the same year, in Dublin, a plan of action was devised and a commitment to the water related goals highlighted in Rio de Janerio was made. Close to fifteen years on, there is little to show by way of success in the intended countries. Over 1.1 billion people in the LICs lack safe water. The direct impact of this is a higher risk of waterborne diseases. The waterborne diseases claim 42,000 lives every week in the LICs. By any standards this is a serious depletion of the human capital stock. Looked at in light of the fact that these countries still heavily rely on labour in production, amplifies the need to preserve health. The inherent danger posed by the poor quality water‐ as can be drawn from the above statistics‐ seems to suggest that improving the quality of water would go a long way in improving and preserving societal health in the LICs. By implication this would improve the productivity of the workers. Other benefits include cost mitigation, improved investor confidence as well as increased tourists’ confidence‐ all of which are vital for LICs’ growth prospects. It begs the question of why these countries have not improved their water quality. With specific reference made to Uganda, this research is bent on answering this question. In Uganda, there is consensus among scientists that the ground and open water sources are degraded to dangerous levels. Water quality parameters like turbidity, coliform count, and colour are all above the WHO minimum specifications for potable water and are on the rise in the country. This is indicative of water quality deterioration and it heightens the risk of waterborne diseases to the users. The waterborne burden of disease in Uganda is on the rise with a high fatality rate of 440 lives every week. The need to improve water quality in the country has been acknowledged. However, attempts to address the problem have only been undertaken on a small scale, most notable of these being the PuR home water treatment vii program. There is evidence in the country that the water quality would have apparent benefits. Strong correlations have been found between improved health in HIV patients and improved water quality in the country. In the economics of health, improving societal health inherently improves workers’ performance and productivity, leading to higher growth of the economy. There is an economic imperative therefore, as to why countries like Uganda should improve their water quality. In spite of this, even the country’s most urbanized setting‐ Kampala‐ lacks potable water. This study therefore investigates why, in a time when not only the global agenda is more supportive than ever and when the country’s water resources have been found to be risky to use, Uganda has not improved water quality. Kampala is used as the model district for this study. The district accounts for three quarters of users of treated water in the country. The problem is investigated by assessing the efficiency case of such a project (a water quality improving project) in the country; the methodology employed to this end is the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). The methodology compares the costs and benefits of a project, in monetary terms, in the same analysis, over its useful life. In the application of CBA one allows for the time value of money by using the discount rate to make the costs and benefits of the project occurring in different years comparable. In principle, the methodology is simple to apply‐ only that issues arise in the quantification of benefits and the determination of the discount rate. Benefits of the Kampala water quality, improving project include non‐market values and for this reason a non‐market valuation technique, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), was employed in their quantification. The CVM technique estimates the benefits by measuring the individuals’ willingness to pay for the improved scenario‐ in this case the scenario was one with a water quality‐improving project. The application of the CVM across many disciplines has invited a lot of criticism over the reliability of its estimates as a measure of value. A panel assembled by the North Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to investigate the reliability of the CVM resolved that as long as the CVM was well conducted, the generated results would reliably predict non‐market values. The Kampala CVM, for the benefits’ quantification, was conducted with the NOAA guidelines in mind. The final value of the project’s benefits was the WTP predicted for the viii median respondent namely Ushs 385.07/= per cubic meter of water. The discount rate was deemed to be the social opportunity cost of capital in the country, viz 12 percent, this being that rate of return foregone by investing in another sector. The project’s costs were arrived at through liaison with water engineers and consulting past data from Uganda’s Water suppliers. From this, the project’s fixed costs were predicted to be Ushs 1451/= per cubic meter of water and the operation and maintenance costs predicted to be Ushs 591.7/= per cubic meter of water. The project’s useful life was deemed to be the average life of a Ugandan, namely 52 years; this choice reflecting the belief that the benefits would last over the users’ whole life. The results of the Kampala water quality‐improving project indicate that the project would not be feasible. It did not matter what discount rate one employed, the project’s operating and maintenance (OM) costs exceed the benefits. The results offer an indication as to why water quality has not been improved in Uganda‐ because the paying population is unwilling to pay for the entire cost of the project. This deduction is not to suggest that the users do not recognize the benefits of the project. The unpleasant truth is that the users’ incomes are typically stretched so thin by other demands that a decision to make more deductions from these incomes is not an inviting one. However, there is a need to improve water quality in LICs like Uganda, as can be deduced from the analysis of the risks of not doing so and benefits of doing so. Accordingly, such projects have to be funded by mechanism that does not require the users to cover the whole cost, but only part of such a cost, with the remainder from other sources like NGOs and foreign aid

ESSAYS IN POVERTY AND CHILD NUTRITIONAL STATUS IN UGANDA

Questa tesi è composta di tre saggi collegati relativi a povertà, distribuzione del reddito e stato di nutrizione dei bambini in Uganda. Il primo saggio intitolato “Poverty reduction and Income Distribution Impacts of Exogenous Policy Shocks in Uganda: A Social Accounting Matrix Perspective” analizza come e quali settori ed agenti economici sarebbero maggiormente colpiti da shock esogeni di politica economica che abbiano l'obiettivo della crescita economica, distribuzione del reddito e della riduzione della povertà. La metodologia applicata in questo studio è un modello di equilibrio economico generale - il modello del moltiplicatore della Matrice di Contabilità Sociale (SAM)- basato sulla SAM Ugandese del 2002. Il secondo saggio intitolato “Measurement of Multidimensional Child Poverty in Uganda” utilizza indicatori antropometrici ed un indicatore composito della ricchezza famigliare come misure del benessere dei bambini e applica l'approccio del Dual Cutoff e Counting proposto da Alkire e Foster (2007, 2011) per costruire un indice multidimensionale della povertà infantile in Uganda. Il terzo saggio, intitolato “The Relationship Between Maternal Autonomy and Child Stunting in Uganda” utilizza utilizza misure di autonomia femminile quali la libertà di movimento per visitare la famiglia ed i parenti, il potere decisionale nel fare cospicue spese familiari e giornaliere e l'atteggiamento femminile verso l'abuso fisico e verbale per analizzare la relazione tra autonomia femminile e rachitismo infantile in Uganda. I dati per i saggi 2 e 3 provengono dall'Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) per l'anno 2006. I risultati dimostrano che il settore immobiliare, agricolo, commerciale e di trasformazione alimentare sono fondamentali in Uganda; 30% dei bambini sono multidimensionalmente poveri e una bassa autonomia materna è associata al rachitismo.The thesis consists of three interrelated essays on poverty, income distribution and child nutritional status in Uganda. The first essay titled “Poverty reduction and Income Distribution Impacts of Exogenous Policy Shocks in Uganda: A Social Accounting Matrix Perspective” asks, how and which sectors and economic agents would be most affected by exogenous policy shocks that target growth, income distribution and poverty reduction? This is answered by a way of a general equilibrium model - the social accounting matrix (SAM)-based multiplier model based on the 2002 Uganda SAM. The second essay titled “Measurement of Multidimensional Child Poverty in Uganda” uses the anthropometric indicators and a household composite wealth indicator as measures of child well-being and applies the Dual Cutoff and Counting approach proposed by Alkire and Foster (2007, 2011) to construct a multidimensional child poverty index for Uganda. The third essay titled “The Relationship Between Maternal Autonomy and Child Stunting in Uganda” uses direct evidence on measures of women’s autonomy namely, freedom of movement to visit families or relatives, decisionmaking power on making large household and daily purchases, and women’s attitude toward verbal and physical abuse to examine the relationship between maternal autonomy and child stunting in Uganda. Data for essay 2 and 3 were drawn from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) for the year 2006. Results show that key sectors in Uganda are Real estate, Agriculture, Trade and Food processing industries; 30% of children are multidimensionally poor; and low maternal autonomy is associated with stunting

Climate change and variability: a review of what is known and ought to be known for Uganda

Purpose - In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda’s recent climate, as well as its variability and change. The purpose of this study is to review what has been documented, thus it gives an overview of what is known and seeks to explain the implications of a changing climate, hence what ought to be known to create a climate resilient environment. Design/methodology/approach - Terms such as “climate”, “climate change” and “climate variability” were identified in recent peer-reviewed published literature to find recent climate-related literature on Uganda. Findings from independent researchers and consultants are incorporated. Data obtained from rainfall and temperature observations and from COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CCLM CORDEX) data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used to generate spatial maps, seasonal outputs and projections using GrADS 2.02 and Geographic Information System (GIS) software for visualization. Findings - The climate of Uganda is tropical in nature and influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varied relief, geo-location and inland lakes, among other factors. The impacts of severe weather and climate trends and variability have been documented substantially in the past 20-30 years. Most studies indicated a rainfall decline. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are on the rise, while projections indicate a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both in the near and far future. The implication of these changes on society and the economy are discussed herein. Cost of inaction is expected to become huge, given factors like, the growing rate of the population and the slow expanding economy experienced in Uganda. Varied forms of adaptation to the impacts of climate change are being implemented, especially in the agricultural sector and at house hold level, though not systematically. Originality/value - This review of scientific research findings aims to create a better understanding of the recent climate change and variability in Uganda and provides a baseline of summarized information for use in future research and actions

Frequency of HIV status disclosure, associated factors and outcomes among HIV positive pregnant women at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, southwestern Uganda

Introduction: positive HIV results disclosure plays a significant role in the successful prevention and care of HIV infected patients. It provides significant social and health benefits to the individual and the community. Non-disclosure is one of the contextual factors driving the HIV epidemic in Uganda. Study objectives: to determine the frequency of HIV disclosure, associated factors and disclosure outcomes among HIV positive pregnant women at Mbarara Hospital, southwestern Uganda. Methods: a cross-sectional study using quantitative and qualitative methods among a group of HIV positive pregnant women attending antenatal clinic was done and consecutive sampling conducted. Results: the total participant recruitment was 103, of which 88 (85.4%) had disclosed their serostatus with 57% disclosure to their partners. About 80% had disclosed within less than 2 months of testing HIV positive. Reasons for disclosure included their partners having disclosed to them (27.3%), caring partners (27.3%) and encouragement by health workers (25.0%). Following disclosure, 74%) were comforted and 6.8% were verbally abused. Reasons for non-disclosure were fear of abandonment (33.3%), being beaten (33.3%) and loss of financial and emotional support (13.3%). The factors associated with disclosure were age 26-35 years (OR 3.9, 95% CI 1.03-15.16), primary education (OR 3.53, 95%CI 1.10-11.307) and urban dwelling (OR 4.22, 95% CI 1.27-14.01). Conclusion: participants disclosed mainly to their partners and were comforted and many of them were encouraged by the health workers. There is need to optimize disclosure merits to enable increased participation in treatment and support programs

Climatic trends at Namulonge in Uganda : 1947-2009

This paper investigates rainfall and temperature trends at Namulonge parish, in Wakiso district of Uganda using statistical techniques. Daily-observed temperature and rainfall records were aggregated into monthly means over a period of more than 55 years. These records were analyzed in an effort to identify both seasonal trends and shifts in climate. This was achieved by using non- parametric (Mann-Kendall) and parametric (linear regression) techniques. The analysis shows that total rainfall during the March-May season decreased, while maximum temperatures were increasing during the months between April and September, with both trends statistically significant at 5% confidence level. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that the number of wet days reduced significantly. Temperatures were found to be warmer and rainfall higher in the first climate normal compared to the recent 30 years. Results revealed that April was the only month with a statistically significant rainfall trend.http:/www.ccsenet.org/jggam201

Variability properties of daily and monthly observed near-surface temperatures in Uganda : 1960-2008

Variability and trends in daily and monthly near-surface temperatures in Uganda, collected over the period 1960–2008 (49 years), are analysed. For this purpose, daily observational maximum and minimum temperature records from eight selected stations in Uganda were acquired from the Uganda Meteorological Department (UMD). Data collected by the UMD are quality controlled through a rigorous process before being archived. The data received were tested for homogeneity, gaps were filled and correlation analyses were used for validation of area average series. Statistical techniques (e.g. Mann–Kendall and Linear Regression) were employed to analyse temperature variability and to obtain temperature trends. Findings indicate that intra-annual temperature shows reduced variability over recent decades, but which is not statistically significant. Results also demonstrated that maximum temperatures are more variable compared to minimum temperatures in Uganda. An increasing trend in hot days, hot nights, warm nights and warm spells were also detected. At seven of the stations, annual temperature range and diurnal temperature range trends were found to be negative. The finding that intra-annual and intra-monthly variance is declining suggests that fewer anomalously extreme temperature episodes occur. The gap between maximum and minimum extremes is reducing, which supports the observation that minimum temperatures are on the increase.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088hb201

Exploring the influence of climate change and capital assets on livelihood formations in central region of Uganda

Current research provides less understanding of how climate change affects the livelihood process at a household level. This study explores household’s perceptions of climate change and its implications on livelihood formation process using empirical data from Uganda. Climatic data, household surveys and key-informant interviews from Wakiso and Gomba districts served as data sources for the study analysis. Majority of the respondents observed climate changes in the last 10–20 years and perceived them to have affected their capital assets in the process of forming livelihoods. As a result, households’ livelihoods have diversified and are pursuing livelihood strategies for sustenance. The study underlines the need to access credit conditioned to climate change resilience, access to improved varieties of crops, availing extension services and targeted resources allocations. Incorporating climate change into the planning process at a local level and associated local institutions in order to improve livelihood formation processes of households is recommended.UNISA postdoctoral fellowshiphttps://www.springer.com/journal/106682022-01-19hj2021Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

Analysis of mid-twentieth century rainfall trends and variability over southwestern Uganda

A methodology has been applied to investigate the spatial variability and trends existent in a mid-twentieth century climatic time series (for the period 1943–1977) recorded by 58 climatic stations in the Albert–Victoria water management area in Uganda. Data were subjected to quality checks before further processing. In the present work, temporal trends were analyzed using Mann–Kendall and linear regression methods. Heterogeneity of monthly rainfall was investigated using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). Results revealed that 53 % of stations have positive trends where 25 % are statistically significant and 45 % of stations have negative trends with 23 % being statistically significant. Very strong trends at 99 % significance level were revealed at 12 stations. Positive trends in January, February, and November at 40 stations were observed. The highest rainfall was recorded in April, while January, June, and July had the lowest rainfall. Spatial analysis results showed that stations close to Lake Victoria recorded high amounts of rainfall. Average annual coefficient of variability was 19 %, signifying low variability. Rainfall distribution is bimodal with maximums experienced in March–April–May and September–October–November seasons of the year. Analysis also revealed that PCI values showed a moderate to seasonal rainfall distribution. Spectral analysis of the time components reveals the existence of a major period around 3, 6, and 10 years. The 6- and 10-year period is a characteristic of September–October–November, March–April– May, and annual time series.http://link.springer.com/journal/704hb201

Assessing industrial development influence on land use/cover drivers and change detection for West Bank East London, South Africa

South Africa’s nationwide socio-economic industrial development zone drive focuses on alleviating of the apartheid social ills legacy. To ensure sustainable industrial ecological development, land-cover monitoring is needed though limited attention has been accorded. This study, aimed at assessing the influence of East London Industrial Development Zone (ELIDZ) on land-use/land-cover (LULC) drivers and detecting LULC changes for 15 years over the West Bank East London. An integration of remote sensing with qualitative approaches was adopted to provide robust temporal and spatial LULC change analysis. Object-based classification was performed on the satellite images for 1998, 2007 and 2013. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalised Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) complemented and validated observed land cover changes. The study reveals that industrial development has been a key driver for land-use changes in West Bank. The classification indicated that vegetation (5.97%) and bare land (-9.06%) classes had the highest percentage increase and decrease respectively. Water (0.02%) and bare land (-0.6%) classes had the lowest annual rate of change. Built-up and bare land classes varied considerably. An overall land-cover classification mean accuracy assessment of 97.24% and a mean Kappa coefficient of 0.95 were attained for the entire study period. This study offers the value of integrated methods in monitoring land-cover change to enhance informed decision-making especially in rapidly changing landscapes for conservation purposes.This manuscript stems from the corresponding authors’ postgraduate study and who performed most of the experiments.The University of Pretoria and the United State Geological Survey (USCS).http://www.ripublication.comam2019Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog