Dynamic Decision Support for Regional LTL Carriers

This thesis focuses on decision support for regional LTL carriers. The basic operating characteristics of regional LTL carriers are similar to those of national LTL carriers, i.e., they operate linehaul networks with satellites, breakbulks, and relays to consolidate freight so as to be able to cost-effectively serve their customers. However, there are also key differences. Most importantly, because the area covered by a regional carrier is smaller, a regional carrier handles less freight (sometimes significantly less) and therefore typically has fewer consolidation opportunities, which results in higher handling and transportation costs per unit of freight. Consequently, competing with national carriers on price is difficult. Therefore, to gain or maintain market share, regional carriers have to provide better service. To be able to provide better service, regional carriers have to be more dynamic, e.g., they have to be able to deviate from their load plan when appropriate, which creates challenges for decision makers. Regional carriers deliver about 60% of their shipments within a day and almost all of their shipments within two days. Furthermore, most drivers get back to their domicile at the end of each day. Therefore, the focus of the thesis is the development of effective and efficient decision models supporting daily operations of regional LTL carriers which provide excellent service at low cost. This thesis presents an effective solution approach based on two optimization models: a dynamic load planning model and a driver assignment model. The dynamic load planning model consists of two parts: an integer program to generate the best paths for daily origin-destination freight volumes and an integer program to pack freight into trailers and trailers into loads, and to determine dispatch times for these loads. Techniques to efficiently solve these integer program solution are discussed in detail. The driver assignment model is solved in multiple stages, each stage requiring the solution of a set packing models in which columns represent driver duties. Each stages determines admissible driver duties. The quality and efficiency of the solution approach are demonstrated through a computational study with real-life data from one of the largest regional LTL carriers in the country. An important "technique" for reducing driver requirements is the use of meet-and-turn operations. A basic meet-and-turn operation involves two drivers meeting at a location in between terminals and exchange trucks. A parking lot or a rest area suffices as a meet-and-turn location. This ensures that drivers return to the terminal where they started. More sophisticated meet-and-turn operations also exist, often called drop and hook operations. In this case, drivers do not exchange trucks, but one of their trailers. The motivation in this case is not to get drivers back to their domicile, but to reduce load- miles. The thesis presents analytical results quantifying the maximum benefits of using meet and turn operations and optimization techniques for identifying profitable meet-and-turn opportunities.Ph.D.Committee Co-Chair: Alan L. Erera; Committee Co-Chair: Martin W. P. Savelsbergh; Committee Member: Chelsea C. White, III; Committee Member: Corne Aantjes; Committee Member: Joel Soko

Machine Learning Methods Improve Prognostication, Identify Clinically Distinct Phenotypes, and Detect Heterogeneity in Response to Therapy in a Large Cohort of Heart Failure Patients

Background-Whereas heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome, conventional approaches to its management have treated it as a singular disease, leading to inadequate patient care and inefficient clinical trials. We hypothesized that applying advanced analytics to a large cohort of HF patients would improve prognostication of outcomes, identify distinct patient phenotypes, and detect heterogeneity in treatment response. Methods and Results-The Swedish Heart Failure Registry is a nationwide registry collecting detailed demographic, clinical, laboratory, and medication data and linked to databases with outcome information. We applied random forest modeling to identify predictors of 1-year survival. Cluster analysis was performed and validated using serial bootstrapping. Association between clusters and survival was assessed with Cox proportional hazards modeling and interaction testing was performed to assess for heterogeneity in response to HF pharmacotherapy across propensity-matched clusters. Our study included 44 886 HF patients enrolled in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry between 2000 and 2012. Random forest modeling demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination for survival (C-statistic=0.83) whereas left ventricular ejection fraction did not (C-statistic=0.52): there were no meaningful differences per strata of left ventricular ejection fraction (1-year survival: 80%, 81%, 83%, and 84%). Cluster analysis using the 8 highest predictive variables identified 4 clinically relevant subgroups of HF with marked differences in 1-year survival. There were significant interactions between propensity-matched clusters (across age, sex, and left ventricular ejection fraction and the following medications: diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, )i-blockers, and nitrates, Pamp;lt;0.001, all). Conclusions-Machine learning algorithms accurately predicted outcomes in a large data set of HF patients. Cluster analysis identified 4 distinct phenotypes that differed significantly in outcomes and in response to therapeutics. Use of these novel analytic approaches has the potential to enhance effectiveness of current therapies and transform future HF clinical trials.Funding Agencies|Swedish Federal Government; Swedish Research Council; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation; Stockholm County Council</p