101 research outputs found

    Bell-INGARCH Model

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    Integer-valued time series exist widely in economics, finance, biology, computer science, medicine, insurance, and many other fields. In recent years, many types of models have been proposed to model integer-valued time series data, in which the integer autoregressive model and integer-valued GARCH model are the most representative. Although there have been many results of integer-valued time series data, the parameters of integer-valued time series model structure are more complicated. This paper is dedicated to proposing a new simple integer-valued GARCH model. First, the Bell integer-valued GARCH model is given based on Bell distribution. Then, the conditional maximum likelihood estimation method is used to obtain the estimators of parameters. Later, numerical simulations confirm the finite sample properties of the estimation of unknown parameters. Finally, the model is applied in the two real examples. Compared with the existing models, the proposed model is more simple and applicable.Comment: 16 pages,4 figure

    Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning based Recommendation with Counterfactual Data Augmentation

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    Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been proven its efficiency in capturing users' dynamic interests in recent literature. However, training a DRL agent is challenging, because of the sparse environment in recommender systems (RS), DRL agents could spend times either exploring informative user-item interaction trajectories or using existing trajectories for policy learning. It is also known as the exploration and exploitation trade-off which affects the recommendation performance significantly when the environment is sparse. It is more challenging to balance the exploration and exploitation in DRL RS where RS agent need to deeply explore the informative trajectories and exploit them efficiently in the context of recommender systems. As a step to address this issue, We design a novel intrinsically ,otivated reinforcement learning method to increase the capability of exploring informative interaction trajectories in the sparse environment, which are further enriched via a counterfactual augmentation strategy for more efficient exploitation. The extensive experiments on six offline datasets and three online simulation platforms demonstrate the superiority of our model to a set of existing state-of-the-art methods

    The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysis

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    Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO concentration will not exceed 610ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6°C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic

    Water use for shale gas extraction in the Sichuan Basin, China

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    This study investigates the use of water for extracting shale gas in the Sichuan Basin of China. Both net water use and water intensity (i.e., water use per unit of gas produced) of shale wells are estimated by applying a process-based life cycle inventory (LCI) model. The results show that the net water use and water intensity are around 24500 m3/well and 1.9 m3 water/104m3 gas respectively, and that the fracturing and completion stage of shale gas extraction accounts for the largest share in net water use. A comparison shows that China's water use for shale gas extraction is generally higher than that of other countries. By considering the predicted annual drilling activities in the Sichuan Basin, we find that the annual water demand for shale gas development is likely to be negligible compared to total regional water supply. However, considering the water demand for shale gas extraction and the water demand from other sectors may make water availability a significant concern for China's shale gas development in the future

    緑藻クラミドモナスにおいてカルシウム結合タンパク質CASはCO2濃縮機構を制御する

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    京都大学0048新制・課程博士博士(生命科学)甲第20099号生博第359号新制||生||47(附属図書館)33215京都大学大学院生命科学研究科統合生命科学専攻(主査)教授 福澤 秀哉, 教授 佐藤 文彦, 教授 河内 孝之学位規則第4条第1項該当Doctor of Philosophy in Life SciencesKyoto UniversityDFA

    Isolation and characterization of novel high-CO2-requiring mutants of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

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    Aquatic microalgae induce a carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM) to maintain photosynthetic activity in low-CO2 (LC) conditions. Although the molecular mechanism of the CCM has been investigated using the single-cell green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and several CCM-related genes have been identified by analyzing high-CO2 (HC)-requiring mutants, many aspects of the CO2-signal transduction pathways remain to be elucidated. In this study, we report the isolation of novel HC-requiring mutants defective in the induction of CCM by DNA tagging. Growth rates of 20, 000 transformants grown under HC and LC conditions were compared, and three HC-requiring mutants (H24, H82, and P103) were isolated. The photosynthetic CO2-exchange activities of these mutants were significantly decreased compared with that of wild-type cells, and accumulation of HLA3 and both LCIA and HLA3 were absent in mutants H24 and H82, respectively. Although the insertion of the marker gene and the HC-requiring phenotype were linked in the tetrad progeny of H82, and a calcium-sensing receptor CAS was disrupted by the insertion, exogenous expression of CAS alone could not complement the HC-requiring phenotype

    Analysis of Point-of-Use Energy Return on Investment and Net Energy Yields from China’s Conventional Fossil Fuels

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    There is a strong correlation between net energy yield (NEY) and energy return on investment (EROI). Although a few studies have researched the EROI at the extraction level in China, none have calculated the EROI at the point of use (EROIPOU). EROIPOU includes the entire energy conversion chain from extraction to point of use. To more comprehensively measure changes in the EROIPOU for China’s conventional fossil fuels, a “bottom-up” model to calculate EROIPOU was improved by extending the conventional calculation boundary from the wellhead to the point of use. To predict trends in the EROIPOU of fossil fuels in China, a dynamic function of the EROI was then used to projections future EROIPOU in this study. Results of this paper show that the EROIPOU of both coal (range of value: 14:1–9.2:1), oil (range of value: 8:1–3.5:1) and natural gas (range of value: 6.5:1–3.5:1) display downward trends during the next 15 years. Based on the results, the trends in the EROIPOU of China’s conventional fossil fuels will rapidly decrease in the future indicating that it is more difficult to obtain NEY from China’s conventional fossil fuels
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