Critical Values of the Empirical F-Distribution for Threshold Autoregressive and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive Models

This paper provides exact (finite-sample) test critical values for carrying out tests of no cointegration versus some forms of nonlinear (threshold autoregressive) cointegration. The nonlinear models, which include threshold autoregressive and momentum threshold autoregressive behavior of deviations from long-run equilibrium, are easier to evaluate with the aid of the reported critical values. The results cover a variety of practical situations, with varying sample sizes, lag lengths, and number of time series

Repurchase Dividend Reinvestment Plans (Repurchase DRIPS)

We investigate the determinants of firms' decision to offer Repurchase Dividend Reinvestment Plans (Repurchase DRIPs). Firm size, managerial share holding, and free cash flow are statistically significant in explaining a firm’s decision to employ Repurchase DRIPs.  We find that managerial stock ownership is negatively related to use of Repurchase DRIPs. Economies of scale in marketing and maintaining DRIP program and excess cash flows are positively related to Repurchase DRIP adoption.  We find no evidence that information asymmetry is a major motivation to the likelihoods of using Repurchase DRIPs

Asymmetric Adjustment In The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Output: Evidence In The USA And Canada Using A Cointegration Analysis

Using a set of cointegration and error correction models with Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) or Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) asymmetric adjustment, we investigate whether the effects of monetary policy on output in the USA and Canada are asymmetric or not. Forty years of quarterly data on output, money supply, price of oil and interest rate for the USA and Canada obtained from the International Monetary Funds International Financial Statistics CD-ROM were used for the different tests. Empirical results show that the effects of monetary policy on output are asymmetric in both countries. Furthermore, the impulse response functions indicate that the results are consistent with a dynamic asymmetry in the behavior of money supply movements in both countries

Characterization of virulence factors in the newly described <i>Salmonella enterica</i> serotype Keurmassar emerging in Senegal (sub-Saharan Africa)

From 2000 to 2001, nine strains of Salmonella enterica belonging to the new serotype Keurmassar have been isolated from human and poultry samples at the Senegalese National Salmonella and Shigella Reference Laboratory at the Pasteur Institute, in Dakar. All strains carried virulence factors including Salmonella Pathogenicity Islands (SPI)-1, -2, -3 and -5 encoded genes. Strains did not harbour virulence plasmid. Ribotyping analysis revealed a single clone identical to Salmonella Decatur isolated in Zimbabwe. These data suggest that strains are closely related, and may have been spread clonally. In this new serotype, insertion sequence IS200 is not present

Growth and Convergence in WAEMU Countries

This paper investigates convergence and dynamic effects of human and physical capital on growth, in WAEMU countries. Using recently developed models for panel data and a growth accounting model, the study finds that growth is largely explained by changes in literacy rates and factor accumulation, but not by growth of total factor productivity (TFP). Nevertheless, the panel estimation identifies aid, government spending, credit to the private sector, and openness as positive determinants of TFP growth, and government deficits as a negative determinant. The study also finds that per capita income in lower-income WAEMU countries converge to per capita income in higher-income ones when economic policies are similar. These results suggest opportunities for policymakers to enhance growth and convergence.Economic growth;West African Economic and Monetary Union;Economic models;gdp per capita, equation, statistic, growth rate, per capita income, correlation, growth accounting, real gdp, mean group, econometrics, total factor productivity, gdp growth, equations, per capita incomes, growth rates, estimation method, growth model, prediction, growth theories, stochastic process, standard errors, estimation technique, computation, mean group estimation, mean group estimator, cointegration, probability, random variable, consumption expenditure, statistics, capital formation, general government final consumption expenditure, survey, predictions, fixed effects model, maximum likelihood estimation, time series, statistical significance, final consumption expenditure, constant term, dynamic models, government final consumption expenditure, neoclassical growth model, regression equation, measurement errors, sample bias, endogenous growth theory, surveys

Accuracy, unbiasedness, and efficiency of current account growth forecast: Evidence from a large cross section of developed and developing economies

We use a previously unexploited consensus survey data set to compare accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of Current Account growth forecasts between two panels of 25 developed and 18 developing countries following the methodologies in the existing literature. Forecast errors are bigger for the developing country comparing to the developed country. Developed country forecast errors are unbiased but inefficient. The developing country forecast errors are biased but relatively more efficient. In both the panels, forecast revisions are efficient for the same forecast horizons, but inefficient for the adjacent horizons. Additionally, we find less evidence of forecast smoothing compared to some earlier studies. Forecasters do improve their forecasts as the horizons become shorter although the forecasts fall short of being unbiased and efficient statistically

Some cross-country evidence on information rigidity in inflation forecasts

AbstractThe study investigates the existence and extent of information rigidity in inflation forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002–2017 period utilizing a survey data set never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds some evidence of information rigidity. Rigidity is present during the recession period of global financial crisis of 2007 for both the developed and the developing countries alike, and we find weak evidence of information gathering picking up during the recession period. We also find that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross-country lagged revisions. Therefore, one source of information rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions quickly and completely

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth

This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing countries. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. Although the estimated coefficient for the income share of public capital is larger in middle- than in low-income countries, the opposite is true for the marginal product of public capital. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, are statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.Developing countries;Economic growth;Governance;Low-income developing countries;public investment, capital stock, investment management, investment growth, investment flows, efficiency of capital, private capital, investment spending, capital accumulation, productive capital, capital inputs, private investment, increasing returns, capital increase