Forecasting prison populations using sentencing and arrest data

Aim: To develop a method for forecasting the NSW remand and sentenced prisoner populations.Method: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with other time series as input variables were employed to estimate and forecast changes in the remand and sentenced prisoner populations. Models were tested by estimating model parameters over the period January 1998 – December 2010 and then comparing model forecasts with actual prison population trends over the period January 2011 – March 2013. Comparison of actual with forecast remand and sentenced prisoner numbers revealed that both models provide fairly reliable predictions of prison population trends over a three year time horizon.Results: Barring any significant change to policing and penal policy, the prison population is expected to rise in the first half of 2013 and then to drop steadily over the next three years. Although modelling suggests an uptrend in the remand prisoner population, this should be more than offset by a decrease in the sentenced prisoner population over the next thirty-three months.Conclusion: Although the models developed here provide accurate forecasts in retrospective testing, they should not be used as the sole basis for projecting future prison numbers. Future projections of prisoner numbers should also be based on advice from correctional administrators, police prosecutors, legal policy analysts, and others on the likely effects of any proposed change to policing, bail or sentence policy. Construction of a simulation model may help in quantifying the effects of these changes.Authored by Wai-Yin Wan, Steve Moffatt, Zachary Xie, Simon Corben and Don Weatherburn

Some Difficult-to-pass Tests of Randomness

We describe three tests of randomness-- tests that many random number generators fail. In particular, all congruential generators-- even those based on a prime modulus-- fail at least one of the tests, as do many simple generators, such as shift register and lagged Fibonacci. On the other hand, generators that pass the three tests seem to pass all the tests in the Diehard Battery of Tests. Note that these tests concern the randomness of a generator's output as a sequence of independent, uniform 32-bit integers. For uses where the output is converted to uniform variates in [0,1), potential flaws of the output as integers will seldom cause problems after the conversion. Most generators seem to be adequate for producing a set of uniform reals in [0,1), but several important applications, notably in cryptography and number theory-- for example, establishing probable primes, complexity of factoring algorithms, random partitions of large integers-- may require satisfactory performance on the kinds of tests we describe here.

Evaluating Kolmogorov's Distribution

Kolmogorov's goodness-of-fit measure, D_n , for a sample CDF has consistently been set aside for methods such as the D^+_n or D^-_n of Smirnov, primarily, it seems, because of the difficulty of computing the distribution of D_n . As far as we know, no easy way to compute that distribution has ever been provided in the 70+ years since Kolmogorov's fundamental paper. We provide one here, a C procedure that provides Pr(D_n .999 with n's of several thousand, we provide a quick approximation that gives accuracy to the 7th digit for such cases.

Why is the NSW prison population growing?

This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the rapid rise in the NSW prison population from January 2013 to March 2014. Method: Descriptive analysis of court, crime, arrest and correctional data, and ARIMA modelling of prison trends. Results: The key factors responsible for the recent rise in the NSW prison population appear to be a higher rate of arrest for serious crime and an increase in the proportion of convicted offenders given a prison sentence. There is no evidence that prisoners during 2013 are spending longer in custody but there is evidence the length of stay in custody may increase over the coming year. If the current trend in inmate numbers continues, the NSW prison population will rise by another 17 per cent (i.e., to about 12,500 inmates) by March 2015. Conclusion: Early consideration should be given to measures that reduce the demand for prison accommodation and/or expand prison capacity

Conceptions of teaching and learning held by teachers of Mandarin and Cantonese in Chinese complementary schools in Scotland

The thesis explores Chinese teachers’ conceptions of teaching and learning Chinese at Chinese complementary schools in Scotland. The teachers taught either Cantonese or Mandarin, the two main Chinese languages spoken by Scotland’s Chinese communities; teaching took place on a voluntary basis at weekends; the teachers were drawn from a variety of occupations; most of the pupils were of Chinese ethnicity, with in addition some non-Chinese children. The research mainly draws on phenomenography, a research approach that investigates variation in conceptions of different phenomena as these appear to particular groups of people – in this case, teachers of Chinese in Scottish complementary schools. The variation refers to the different conceptions of teaching and learning that were identified in the group of teachers as a whole. Semi-structured interviews with each individual teacher were devised, conducted and analysed according to phenomenographic procedures. From the group as a whole six key conceptions of teaching were identified, and likewise six key conceptions of learning. In addition, the research focused on a smaller number of teachers in order to identify individual profiles in greater depth. The teacher interviews also elicited the metaphors that the teachers considered represented good teaching and learning. The interviews also served to identify the factors that the teachers considered had most influenced their conceptions, and they were complemented by qualitative classroom observations designed to identify factors that would allow the researcher to better understand the context in which the teachers had formed their conceptions. The findings showed that Mandarin and Cantonese teachers had much in common, but that also there were clear differences in particular areas that seemed to be explained both by differences in culture between Mandarin-speaking Mainland China and Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong, and also by emerging differences in power and status, with Mandarin assuming a dominant role and Cantonese showing some decline in numbers and in optimism, with some parents switching their children over from Cantonese to Mandarin. More generally, the findings suggested that the teachers were dedicated, adaptable, and different from the stereotypical perception of Chinese teachers of the sort that emphasises examinations, rote-learning and authoritarian teaching style. The teachers in the present study generally understood their pupils had multiple identities and they sought to teach in a child-centred way, and to help their pupils preserve moral values and a Chinese component of their identity through learning Chinese language and experiencing Chinese culture

How do electronic musicians make their music? : creative practice through informal learning resources

The paper will explore the creative practices of professional electronic musicians through their interviews published in consumer materials, commonly perceived as informal learning resources. Drawing on data gathered from music technology and music culture-related publications including magazines, newspapers, online sources, video, and radio, the study will consolidate 154 existing interviews, given over a seventeen-year period. The aim of this study is not to provide a complete illustration of electronic music production, but rather offer points of significance that hold meaning in the context of creative practice

Global and regional sourcing of ICT-enabled business services: upgrading of China, Hong Kong and Singapore along the global value chain

Offshoring, as part of globalisation, first started decades ago with manufacturing processes disintegrated along the global value chain and dramatically redistributed to low-cost regions. The next global shift of work involving ICT-enabled business services has arisen since the 1990s, especially featuring the success of India’s supplier role. The possibilities for the Global South to move up the value ladder are well demonstrated by the achievements of the newly industrialised economies in East Asia in the first shift and of India in the second. In the services sector, however, potential for upgrading is conditioned by quality-based elements, such as trust, culture and language, which vary both between producing and market areas. Flows are increasingly multi-directional, requiring attention to the neglected issue of demands from fast-growing Southern economies. So how do locations and firms in the Global South attempt to upgrade in the regime of rising services offshoring? The Indian experience especially in serving Anglophone markets in the Global North has been widely documented – but not that of East Asian economies, with their distinct characteristics and strong historic, ethnic and cultural ties with each other. This study examines the upgrading possibilities and constraints of China, Hong Kong and Singapore along the global services chain. For cross-case analysis, it focuses on three specific sets of services, including information technology, finance and accounting, and customer contact services. The concepts of global value chain, competitive advantage and capabilities are applied to reconstruct the phenomenon of services offshoring from both the demand and supply perspectives in the selected locations, and synthesise the dynamics between locational characteristics and firm strategies. A series of distinct upgrading strategies are identified, involving mixes of manufacturisation, knowledge-intensification and deepening relational capabilities to exploit both regional advantages of language/cultural proximity and established global links

Development And Applications Of Flow Injection Methods Based On Iodometric Reactions [QP519.9.F55 W244 2008 f rb].

Tesis ini fokus kepada pembangunan kaedah analisis suntikan aliran (FIA) berdasarkan tindak balas iodometri klasik. This thesis is focused on the development of flow injection analysis (FIA) methologies based on the classical iodometric reactions

Fast Generation of Discrete Random Variables

We describe two methods and provide C programs for generating discrete random variables with functions that are simple and fast, averaging ten times as fast as published methods and more than five times as fast as the fastest of those. We provide general procedures for implementing the two methods, as well as specific procedures for three of the most important discrete distributions: Poisson, binomial and hypergeometric.